New Poll, New Numbers

Tweetline: #qc2012 Prévision des Election / Election Projection 51 #PQ | 40 #CAQ | 32 #PLQ | 2 #QS | 0 #ON http://riding-by-riding.blogspot.com/2012/08/new-poll-new-numbers.html


There are a few things to note here. First, the PQ is not rising, in fact, they are falling, or at least, are stuck. Secondly, in the past both the PLQ and ADQ have been able to outperform the polls. Third, the CAQ clearly has the momentum and is on the move. These things combine to tell me that the final result will have the PQ lower than expected and the CAQ higher, confirming my trendline.

Next, another note is that the CAQ vote is becoming much more efficient. Their regional splits have settled down and they are no longer whompping in the Capitale-Nationale (Quebec City area) but rather only winning by a large margin, they also are down on the Island of Montreal. Without these two areas sucking up votes, there are votes in the Rest of Quebec that are going CAQ. This might be a bit confusing so here is what I mean.

Last election there were 3.3 million voters in Quebec. 30% of that is about a million votes. I expect the CAQ right now is sitting on 30%, or, a million votes. In 2007, when the ADQ did very well, they took 122,000 votes on the Island of Montreal. Lets presume for a moment that the CAQ is sitting on 122,000 votes on the Island of Montreal. That means that there are 878,000 votes going CAQ elsewhere in Quebec. If the CAQ, however, is sitting on 200,000 votes on the Island of Montreal, that means there are only 800,000 CAQ votes elsewhere in Quebec, meaning they will win less ridings in these areas and more on Montreal; but with the CAQ/ADQ doing so poorly on the Island of Montreal, 122,000 votes or 200,000 votes both mean 0 seats; thus the total seats won by the CAQ is lower.

This all changes, however, if the CAQ can concentrate their Montreal vote in a particular area, say, in Anglophone ridings.

Regardless, as usual:

Map!

Another Update

First off, I want to admit to an embarrassing error. I had La Prairie going CAQ while many others did not. The reason is that the data from La Prairie was being drawn from base data for the riding of La Peltrie. This has now been corrected.

I then added new trends to the polling.

I've also made more regional adjustments to better match the polls. The results of these changes are shown on the map.

Edit - I've also noticed that the ridings of La Peltrie and La Piniere are reversed on the map labels. The ridings are shown in their proper locations, and, with the proper colours, but the name label, is incorrect.

Observations

Not as much going on today as I had hoped. The CAQ did a number of English media spots either today or last night that is getting them press. Sadly, not much else for me to comment on just yet.

Poll based Projection

Tweetline: #qc2012 Prévision des Election / Election Projection Sur la base de sondages / Poll based: 68 #PQ | 31 #PLQ | 24 #CAQ | 2 #QS | 0 #ON

Note: this does not include the missing Forum poll

Schedule change

Due to the cat, I take the "night shift" and thus have been up all night. I was also hoping that the Forum poll would come out at midnight, and to be honest, I'm getting a bit tired of waiting, as there is no indication at what time today the poll will be out. 7:30am? 7:30pm? 11:59pm?

I'm thus more likely to head off to bed than I am to stay up longer and keep waiting; so if you don't see that dual update from me after the poll comes out, it is due to my sleeping, and the update will be posted once I wake up.

Schedule

Here is a tentative schedule until E-day in Ontario's By-Elections and after.

Today, August 29th
Once the new Forum poll is out - and I expect that just about any minute now - I will make a projection update including a map. I will also show the difference between my trendline+gut based projection and the poll-only based projection using poll averages. The formula for the latter is the most recent poll from CROP, Leger, and Forum are averaged out, and, the second most recent from each of those three are averaged as well, given half the weight, and averaged with the more recent polls. Maps will be produced for both projections. I will also try to finish more of those Requests.

Thursday, August 30th

Could be a big turning-point day for the CAQ if they are to take over for the PLQ, or, give versa. Could be a big turning point day for the PQ if they are to slip and fall. I will keep an eye on the media and try to figure out where things are going by the number and tone of positive and negative stories. I will make a projection update regardless of weather or not I have new data. I hopefully will have all the requests done by this point. 

Friday, August 31st

I suspect the media will be jam packed with stories. I may well pick out a few, especially opinion pieces, and explain why I feel they are right or wrong. I will make a projection update regardless of weather or not I have new data.

Saturday, September 1st

My suspicion is that on this day a few polls may come out, but that at least one will be due. This will help me refine my projection methods for the final time as I prepare for the big day. I will also discuss how "We got here" from today, despite the fact this is only a few days away. I will make a projection update regardless of weather or not I have new data.

Sunday, September 2nd

I have a strong feeling I wont have much related to the election to talk about. If this is the case, I will examine other issues (such as a possible projection in another province) and possibly look overseas. I do not forsee any projection update unless a new poll is out.

Monday, September 3rd (Labour Day)

We find out who "Liberal Who" is, and I find out how wrong my guess is. One interesting theory from our friends over at Blunt Objects is that it may be an NDP ploy! Pundits guide presents reasons why it could well be David Merner. Throughout the day expect a number of projections from me, including a "penultimate" one late into the evening. During the day I will examine the highest and lowest that all 6 parties can go, and show the difference between the trendline projection, the poll-only projection, and what my gut says. I will also detail which of those three I'm going with and why.

Tuesday, September 4th

E-Day. Final riding by riding projection will be up by 9am at the latest, and polls open at 9:30. Posts during the day itself may be sparse so that I can stay up all night if need be! The results will be liveblogged, with focus away from the numbers; you can find those in dozens of places, but what I will be providing, is analysis.

Wednesday, September 5th

Most of this day will be spent sleeping likely (recovery from the election night, if it goes on long enough)

In the AM to early PM hours, we will examine "what happened" and "why"

If there is time in the late PM, we will start the discussion on the coming Ontario by-elections

Thursday, September 6th

The focus of discussion on this day will be the Ontario by-elections in Kitchener-Waterloo and in Vaughan. While I can see Vaughan from my roomate's bedroom window, I have not been involved in these by-elections whatsoever and therefore will have no projections, but, will discuss "chances" and polls and anything else relevant. The results will be liveblogged, with a focus on the numbers. 

Friday, September 7th

I have an appointment on this day, and it seems like a good day for a break. I try to make at least 1 post every day, but Friday's post will either be short, or, be about an idea that strikes me.

Saturday, September 8th (and onward) 

Normalcy. You can expect an average of 1.5 posts a day starting here and in to the future, with the numbers dropping when Parliament is out to around 1 a day, and raising to 2 (AM and PM) when Parliament is in. 

A note of caution.

I have two kitty cats, little Scout and little Boo.

Little Boo is ill, and has a feeding tube. From time to time, without much warning, he requires our attention, and sometimes, even an emergency ride to the vet. I will try my best to stick to this schedule, but there may be times when I can not. 

August 28th Projection

Tweetline: 63 #PQ | 32 #CAQ | 27 #PLQ | 2 #QS | 1 #ON | http://bit.ly/QsbZDD | #qc2012 Prévision des Election / Election Projection

I've further updated the numbers to match the trendlines. This means that the CAQ is higher in this projection than they are in the polls, while the PLQ is lower, and the PQ is stable, but, slightly lower as well. The expected trend is the CAQ will pick up steam.

Quick Projection --- 67 #PQ --- 28 #CAQ --- 27 #PLQ

As it says on the tin.

Riding by Riding numbers and a new map will be out in the morning!

New Ontario Ridings

Proposal is up!

Thoughts:

The NDP will suffer as a result of these new boundaries. Oshawa in particular appears to have been gerrymandered.

Haliburton-Uxbridge is the most terrible suggestion for a riding I've ever seen. It is in fact SO bad, I will personally make a presentation to the commission to let them know.

Toronto North should provide the CPC with a constant seat in Toronto

New Ottawa ridings are flawless IMO, and "perfect".

Kitchener South very strangely shaped, but unavoidable.

Hamilton gets new riding, exactly where it needs one.

Woodbridge, Unionville, Mount Pleasent, all ridings that need a closer look (by me to see what they mean)

Mississauga Centre should be good for the Liberals

Bradford and Georgina, as growing areas, should not be in the same riding.

Splitting Barrie a good idea. Barrie South will likely need to shrink in 2021 due to population growth.


More to come later (as in, maybe a day or a week or a month)

PS. and no, I do not detect any "Gerrymandering" outside of Oshawa.

Request (Gaspe)

-Haute Gaspesie-

Haute-Gaspesie-La Metis-Matane-Matapedia
B: 5749
L: 4984
N: 3020
C: 2947
G: 303

Gaspesie--Iles-De-La-Madeline
N: 9549
B: 8781
C: 4825
L: 3603
G: 744

GASPESIE--LES ILES:
B: 14530 - 32.6%
N: 12569 - 28.2%
L: 8587 - 19.3%
C: 7772 - 17.5%
G: 1047 - 2.4%



TO OTHER RIDING:

Haute-Gaspesie-La Metis-Matane-Matapedia
B: 6531
N: 4351
L: 3425
C: 2066
G: 389

Gaspesie--Iles-De-La-Madeline
N: 2729
B: 2526
L: 1502
C: 1195
G: 231

Rimouski
N: 15191
B: 11532
C: 4585
L: 3200
G: 731

RIMOUSKI
N: 22271 - 37.0%
B: 20589 - 34.2%
L: 8127 - 13.5%
C: 7846 - 13.0%
G: 1351 - 2.2%

Request

Two ridings are finished, the rest I will continue to work on.



--LEVIS--
From Levis-Bellechasse
C: 2281
G: 124
B: 1222
L: 432
N: 2568

From Lotbiniere--Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere
G: 677
N: 16595
B: 6308
C: 14671
L: 2105

TOTAL LEVIS:
N: 19163 - 40.8%
C: 16952 - 36.1%
B: 7530 - 16.0%
L: 2537 - 5.4%
G: 801 - 1.7%
TOT: 46983





--LAC SAINT LOUIS--
From Lac Saint Louis
L: 15039
C: 12442
N: 12317
G: 1903
B: 1130

From Notre-Dame-de-Grace--Lachine
N: 2299
L: 1708
C: 1085
B: 337
G: 270

TOTAL LAC SAINT LOUIS
L: 16747 - 34.5%
N: 14616 - 30.1%
C: 13527 - 27.9%
G: 2173 - 4.5%
B: 1467 - 3.0%



TO DO
-Ville Marie-
Laurier Saint Marie
Westmount Ville Marie
Jeanne-Le Ber

-Haute Gaspesie-
Haute-Gaspesie-La Metis-Matane-Matapedia
Gaspesie--Iles-De-La-Madeline

-GE Cartier-
Ahuntsic
Saint Laurent Cartierville

-Maurice Richard-
Papineau (small)
Bourassa (small)
Ahuntsic
Saint-Leonard

-St Leonard-
Saint-Leonard
Hochelaga

Answering a Request

I was asked in a comment if I can get the transposition for all 78 ridings in Quebec. Sadly, that's a bit too much work for ridings that are temporary (the final boundaries and proposed boundaries are sometimes quite different)

However, I was also asked if I can do the the transposition in Lac St Louis, Maurice Richard, Ville Marie, Haute Gaspesie, St. Leonard, Levis, and GE Cartier. The answer is yes. I will begin work on this ASAP and post once I am done.

Update

Again, based on delving deeper into the polls, my "gut" based on media reports (positive VS negative for each party) and focusing it more on recent, not older polls.

Has the PQ regained their lost advantage?

Check out Blunt Objects for the answer!

Quick Post

I decided to eyeball the new proposed Federal ridings for Quebec. I compared this to poll-by-poll results from the 2011 election to get a rough transposition. Here are my estimates.



Levis goes NDP, but CPC gains Lac-Saint-Louis from the Liberals
Liberals lose Lac-Saint-Louis but gain George-Etienne-Cartier, a new riding
Bloc holds on to all of their ridings
CPC: 5
LIB: 7
BQ: 4
NDP: 62

In the provinces

Quebec, as it is having an election, will not be in this update.

Newfoundland

The NDP members have settled in to their more visible role here, but the Liberals have yet to fail at the official opposition. Polls taken since the last election show the NDP up, but also, the Liberals either maintaining their vote, or up themselves. The most recent poll in fact shows the NDP in the lead. My projection for "where things really stand" is 40PC - 30N - 20L This would be enough for the NDP to win Burin, and Saint Johns West, which might not sound like much, but is enough to push them into the Official Opposition.

Prince Edward Island

I lived here for a decade and even ran for office here. With a 5 member opposition, at least the Government is being held accountable by someone. PEI has a terrible history of 1 or 2 member oppositions (or 0 member even). I'd even say that a 3 member opposition in the 27 member house is not enough. A 3 member opposition means 1 opposition member for every 8 government members. 4 members pushes that number down to 6, and that is rounding up. My personal feeling is that 1-to-7 is the lowest you can go and still retain an effective opposition. Regardless, the only report here is "No Changes", the Liberals retain their majority.

Nova Scotia

The next province over is Nova Scotia, where the NDP holds a majority. Not much has changed in the legislature since my last update which was on the Blunt Objects blog The most recent poll shows the NDP down 10 points from the last election, but, a poll over a year ago had the same results and the NDP bounced right back. Both the Liberals and Tories are bouncing about in the polls as well, making it difficult to tell exactly what is going on. The only thing that is clear to me is that the NDP has lost some ground, likely settling at 40% right now, while the Liberals are closer to 30 as I see it, and the PC Party closer to 27. The Tories, having more close second place finishes to the NDP last time, would see the most gain out of this, and would take enough seats to push the NDP into a minority, and themselves into the official opposition. 

New Brunswick

All three parties here are in a depressed state. The NDP lost a by-election they put all their eggs in to a few months ago, and the Liberals are still shopping around for a leader. The Governing Tories are down in the polls meanwhile, Polls show the NDP vote doubling, and they could win them a few seats, but with the concentration pattern of the NDP vote, even 20% on e-day may only mean 4 seats. More details to come later as NB is far too complex to make a simple projection. 

British Columbia

Off to the other coast to tell me what you already know, as the state of things has not changed much since the BC By-Elections. The NDP is far out in the lead and will likely take all but a dozen ridings in the next election unless the polls change. The Greens have been displaced as the 3rd party by the Conservatives, who manage to stick a few points behind the Liberals, who can not seem to break out of the 20s.

Alberta

With an election so recent, there really is not much I can say here that is of any use whatsoever.

Saskatchewan

The Saskatchewan Party retains their huge lead that they won in the 2011 election, and beyond that, there is nothing to say here either.

Manitoba

Rounding out politics on the quiet prairie is Manitoba, where again, not enough has changed since the 2011 election to provoke any comment. 

Yukon

Heading up north to the Yukon we find the same as we do in the rest of the west, not much to comment on.

The Senate

Those who follow me know that I like to take a look at the Senate during these updates. Current party standings have the Tories at 59, the Liberals at 40, and 3 official Independents - though at least one claims to be a member of a party that has not existed for nearly a decade.

There are currently 5 vacancies in the Senate, 2 in Ontario, and 1 in each of Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia.

By the middle of November, there will be additional vacancies in Newfoundland, Saskatchewan, and British Columbia. Perhaps we are headed for a Senate election? Perhaps not.

Ontario

And now what you've all been waiting for, but, I'm afraid to tell you, you have to wait some more. What's been going on in Ontario is large enough for it's own post, and thus, it will have one, independent of this post. 

Updated Projection

First I want to address why I'm updating a projection from less than an hour ago. The answer is twofold.

1 - Follow your gut.
This most recent Leger poll has results that match my gut feeling about the election. I've learned not only to trust my riding numbers (IE they say Hull might vote PQ, so, Hull might vote PQ) but I've also learned when "poll averaging" to follow my gut far more than the math. My gut tells me that the CAQ is stealing PLQ votes, and this poll confirms that this is indeed the case among Francophones.

2 - Regional Breakdowns.
A rush to get a projection out means no focus on the various regional breakdowns. The regional breakdowns on this poll got heavy weight for a few reasons. First of all, the CAQ breakdown identically matches that of the ADQ at these levels, and this leads me to believe that old ADQ voters are ready to go CAQ without much of a change. Secondly, these regionals represent a huge change from past polls, a change I'm willing to trust for reasons listed above. Lastly, this is a Leger poll, and Leger, from my experience, is the most accurate pollster on the Quebec scene.

The major changes are the around 20% of Liberal votes in rural Quebec are heading over to the CAQ, and, at least 10% are doing the same in Quebec City. Of note, if these numbers hold, the QS will hold the balance of power. The prospect of that brings me an interesting sort of joy.

55 #PQ | 39 #PLQ | 27 #CAQ | 4 #QS

New projection!!

#liberalwho #lpcldr #lpc - great hashtags, but who is it really?

Who is behind http://www.liberalwho.ca/

That is the question everyone wants to know. It's registered to someone who seems to - from the postal code - live in a Jean Coutu. The postcode is in Trudeau's riding. Is it him? Whoever it is follows a lot of people from in and around Halifax on Twitter, maybe it's Brison? The guy seems to also know a lot of people from Calgary, maybe it's Nenshi. Some others even think it's Andrew Coyne.

There were a few things I noted based on the little that's written on the website. First off, this "platform" seems left wing. The mystery man refers to the party as "Progressive" and wanting to unite "Progressives". He also attacks Harper rather than the entire Conservative Party. The problem is this could apply to a dozen Liberal MPs. So how to narrow it down?

One word caught my attention. Laggard. It's not a common word, at least, not one I use, nor one that I hear get used often. In particular, this person refers to Canada being "Laggard" in the International arena when it comes to the Environment.

This gave me an idea and a quick search of Hansard though http://openparliament.ca/ and I found something interesting. There are only a handful of Liberal MPs that have used this word more than once, and of them, only one, has only used it to refer to the Environment.

Frank Valeriote

Is it him?
Maybe, maybe not. But either way, whoever it is, certainly is capturing attention.

The Starting Point

So, where do we start? The answer is normally pretty simple; a transposition of the 2008 vote. The answer this time is a bit more complex. While that applies in most ridings, it does not in others. Dumont's old seat, for example, can not rightfully be considered a CAQ seat, and Legault's old seat, and that of the two other PQ MNAs that crossed the floor, should be considered CAQ seats. The same applies to Aussant and the ON. 

Thus, with those changes in mind, I present to you the "Starting Point" or "Base Results" of the 2008 election, transposed to 2012.

Also, a special thanks to Volkov, who is registered to contribute to this blog, and who runs his own at http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/ A special thanks to Volkov for creating the base for the map that I use. Especially since I used it myself on his blog without asking... And then, sorta, absconded with it without telling him >.<

Direct 2 Twitter

This post is mostly a test of my new direct to twitter thanks to www.twitterfeed.com  which should allow all my new posts here at RxR to appear automatically on my twitter feed!

About me

Some of you may be wondering who I am.

I'm Teddy!

Others will need more.

I'm Nick J "Teddy" Boragina. I live in Toronto, Ontario. I grew up on PEI on the east coast. I ran provincially for the PEI NDP in 2003, and municipally as an "Independent Conservative" in Toronto in 2006. I'm currently a member of the Federal Liberals, and a supporter of the Provincial Greens.

I'm all over the map politically, because my views do not line up with any particular party. When it comes to Justice or Labour issues, I side with the more Conservative elements. On Social policy and help for the needy, I side with the NDP. In terms of balancing taxes and spending, or first nations rights, I side with the Liberals. And on the environment, and public transit, I'm a Green.

This gives me a unique prospective on the parties I think. Rather than being an outsider who can see all the negatives, I can also see all the positives. In addition, the only other big party out there, the Bloc, and I, agree on the kind of powers a Federal government should have. I am not big on centralization. Federally I want my MPs to give more and more power and tax room to the provinces, while I want my province to take as much tax room as it can from the cities and spend like madmen.

Currently, I'm 27; but I decided to change my birthday to August 8th, so by that measure I'm 28; though, my birth certificate says I still have a few months to go for that.

I am very friendly and open, and though I will debate you and even argue with you, I am always willing to accept you are right and I am wrong (though I might need to grump about it for a while) and I'll never stop talking to a person just because I disagree.

How to contact me? Well, I'm TheNewTeddy. Add a hotmail.com to the end to e-mail me, put a facebook.com before it to find my FB page, change "Facebook" to "Twitter" to find my tweets, so on and so forth. You can also google me to see all the crazy things I say when I get mad about stuff if you really want.

So never be afraid to drop me a line. I love talking to anyone and everyone!

Would another Minority look like 2007?

No.

The answer, as always, is in the numbers.


ADQ Experince (in years)
Dumont - 13
Grondin - 4
Picard - 4
Roy - 4
Legare - 3
TOTAL: 28 years and 41 MNAs
36 MNAs with no experince
1 MNA with experince for every 7 without
No alternate interests. The ADQ was built up by and around Dumont. No one with enough experience to even think of challenging Dumont. Election candidates that did not expect to win.

CAQ Experince (in years)
--Presuming they all get elected--
Legault - 11
Roy - 9
Caire - 5
Bonnardel - 5
Deltell - 4
Ratthe - 4
Charette - 4
Rebello - 4
Damphousse - 1
Levesque - 1
Schneeberger - 1
Gaudreau - 1
Benjamin - 1
Total: 51 years and (projected) 25 to 40 MNAs
27 MNAs with no experince (of 40)
1 MNA with experince for every 2 without
A merger of disaffected PQ members and the ADQ, token positions will have to be given out accordingly, causing a larger powerbase. People like Roy who rival Legault's time served in the legislature. Legault is not as strong an individual as Dumont. Election candidates that expect to win.

Any minority with the CAQ as either the official opposition or as the 3rd party will not be like when the ADQ came to town. There will be no "Dumont and his kids" stories. The CAQ team is far more experienced than the ADQ, and like the 2011 NDP, there are enough people with experience in the legislature to guide the new members though.

...Of course all of this presumes the CAQ is not the government. That's another story altogether. Keep in mind that the Ontario NDP victory of 1990 and the following government was so controversial that even the federal Liberals are feeling the after effects to this day! (Okay, lame attack, but point made)

More on the PQ's lost natural advantage

Analysis on the "how" over on Blunt Objects!