Wednesday, March 24, 2010


Reminder, we have a new website

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Saturday, March 20, 2010

Looking Back


One of my first posts on the blog. It contains a spelling error, but the projection was dead on - sadly.

I note that I have not edited the post in any way shape or form since I posted it at the start of 2008.

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Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Rob Ford to run for mayor! ...Maybe


An article in today’s Star suggests Rob Ford may well run for Mayor after all. There is still plenty of time to get into the race if he wants to, in fact I’d say there are at least 6 more weeks to ‘enter’ the race without risking getting in ‘too late’, if not a full 10 weeks. Regardless, we must look as to how this will impact the race.

I still maintain that my list of plausible candidates from earlier stands, that Mammoliti is not one of them, and that there still is a gap in the middle of the right wing that is probably just waiting to get filled.

Lets first examine who Rob Ford is. For anyone from outside Toronto, I will explain this using three words. Reform / Canadian Alliance. Rob Ford is the most right-wing person elected to Toronto city council, perhaps ever. He is not just your standard Stephen Harper neocon, he is very ‘populist’ in nature, focusing his attention not on lower taxes but on wasteful spending, especially from office budgets of politicians.

So, how would Ford fare in the election? Well, he would lose. If there was even the slightest inkling that Ford could win, the rest of the city would rush to get behind another candidate – any other candidate – that Ford would be crushed. The question is how much support he could get. My feeling is he could get anywhere from 10% to 20%, depending on if another right candidate enters the race, possibly going as low as 5% if he makes gaffes. Where would these votes come from? Not the core that is certain. There are however enough people in the inner suburbs that could and would support Rob Ford. Remember that he does consistently win his own ward.

Why run? Ford has never proven he is in touch with political reality. He probably thinks there is an off chance he can win. There are, however, two ‘bigger’ reasons that I see. One, to embarrass Mammoliti, whom he will easily trounce in the popular vote, and Two, to perhaps build a party-like organization of right minded people in Toronto. If the latter, he may work with the Toronto Party to do this.

What kind of Mayor would he be? In general, very right-wing. I do not, however, think he would “destroy” the TTC. Rossi is more of a threat to that. Ford would lower funding, that is certain, but he does not seem to have the same ‘hate’ for the transit system that others do.

So, what are the numbers? As I see it:

Smitherman – 40%

Pantalone – 25%

Rossi – 20%

Ford – 10%

Others – 5%

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Thursday, March 11, 2010



129C 95L 50B 34N - 11MAR2010

visit for more details

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Tuesday, March 9, 2010

International politics.

<- More below the fold!

You will notice that from time to time I focus on different aspects of international politics. There are certain areas of the world in particular that I plan to or wish to focus on. Northern Ireland, clearly, is one. I do however want to note that I write from a Canadian prospective, for a Canadian prospective. I’ve had people from the various countries I write about tell me my explanations of political issues in their homeland is “simplistic”, and this is true. I am not writing political analysis about Northern Ireland for a Northern Irish audience. I am writing it for a Canadian audience. This means from time to time I will make comparisons that are rough at best. For example, saying that in the UK, their Tories are like our Tories, their Liberals are like our moderate Liberals, and their Labour party is like our NDP plus Trudeauites is very simplistic, but also allows someone who may not follow UK politics to get a very basic understanding of what is going on.

I wish to therefore give a short and basic run down of politics in various areas I wish to focus on below the fold.

First off, Northern Ireland. You can find some basic election date on Wikipedia. The CAIN database is also full of useful nuggets of information. I want to note here something about Wikipedia. I am not endorsing the political analysis on it – it is very easy to say “most people think this” and not be caught, true or not. I am however endorsing the numbers. These numbers don’t make it to the page unless they are sourced. I myself am one of the more active contributors to election result numbers to Wikipedia, and I suggest someone looking for raw data use Wikipedia, while someone who wants a more detailed account of why should perhaps look elsewhere.

There are a number of parties in Northern Ireland. On the Unionist side there is the UUP, the Ulster Unionist Party. They are very old, and for many years formed the government. They were, in fact, in government from 1921 to the end of the NI Parliament in the late 1960s and early 1970s. It was this government that people were protesting during the Bloody Sunday protest. In the 70’s however the UUP began to moderate it’s stance. This is when the DUP, or Democratic Unionist Party was formed, it struck a much more hard line for Unionism. In the past few years, however, the DUP has been a key part of Government, and it too has had to moderate it’s tone, leading to a new party, the TUV or Traditional Ulster Voice to spring up. The TUV has yet to be tested in either a UK or NI election.
On the Nationalist side there is the SDLP, or Social Democratic and Labour Party. This party was formed at the start of the troubles to represent nationalist and catholic interest. The largest nationalist party however is Sinn Fien. They are the political wing of the armed IRA members who fought the troubles. SF has overseen the disarming of the IRA and now participates in Government.

A little bit of history as well. Starting about a thousand years ago or so, England began invading Ireland. They would take hundreds of years to subdue the island, but eventually did. By then, most of the English were Protestant while the Irish remained Catholic. This turned the situation into a religious divide, with Protestants on one side and Catholics on the other. Following world war 1, an election was held in Ireland. The result was as follows

To split it; In the 26 counties that now make up the Republic of Ireland:
Sinn Fien – 69
Nationalist – 2
Unionist – 2


Projection Update


129C 97L 48B 34N

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Thursday, March 4, 2010

Summarized Projection

130C 95L 48B 35N

15L 12C 5N

48B 19L 7C 1N

47L 45C 14N

23C 3N 2L

26C 1L 1N

16C 10L 10N

always always always 1C 1L 1N unless I say otherwise

The full projection will be posted within 15 minutes to

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

So when is the next election?


Not soon, at least not likely. Word on the street is that neither the NDP or Liberals want an election. Looking at the most recent projections, it is no surprise why. The NDP is down slightly, or at best, will only match their 2008 election results. The Liberals are up, but only as far as 2006 (an election they lost) The Tories meanwhile are back at 2006 levels.

In short, there is no real reason for any of the parties to want an election. The Liberals certainly don't want to lose an election, even if they can gain 20 to 30 extra seats. The Tories certainly don't want to lose a seat, especially when you consider that much of the anti-Conservative feeling is, in reality, anti-Harper feeling. Harper knows that unless he can win an election with a majority, there is a very good chance he will be out. He will have had four chances (2004, 2006, 2008, 2010) and if he can't win a majority in that time, I don't see him remaining. Even Chretien, who lead 3 majorities, was only given 3 chances (1993, 1997, 2000) Ignatieff, meanwhile, could certainly remain Liberal leader if he can bring them back up to 100 seats, but his party does not want to suffer it's 3rd consecutive defeat (Something that's not happened since the 50's) The NDP meanwhile, at least under Layton, has decided that they want to make another serious run for Government. While this is not as ridiculous as it first sounds (especially considering the Liberals had their worst election ever last time, in terms of popular vote) polls show there is not a chance it is going to happen any time soon. Thanks to the prorogue issue, the Tories are no longer leading by a dozen points. Even though recent polls have shown a minor bounce back (even to as high as an 8 point lead) this not enough to guarantee Harper his Majority.

But wait, there's more! An article on the Toronto Star shows that at least 75 MP's (from all parties) who were first elected in 2004 will qualify for Pensions this June, this includes some top-notch Conservatives, and Liberals as well as Jack Layton himself. Some other big names include Ujjal Dosanjh, Bill Siksay, Jim Prentice, Rona Ambrose, Steven Fletcher, Mike Chong, Navdeep Bains, Ruby Dhalla, Peter Van Loan, Helena Guergis, David McGunity, Pierre Poilievre, Gordon O'Connor, Pablo Rodriguez, Rob Moore, and Michael Savage. Many of these people, if they are not big names on to themselves, are brothers or children of current or former premiers, etc. I don't think many of these people will desire a quick election. There is also the practical concern of money. The Tories are swimming in it, but the Liberals could always use more time to collect more donations. The simple fact that neither of the two parties are ranting "Election! Election! Election!" to the media, like they both were in turn before this mess, tells me that a spring election, at least one on purpose, is not likely. If this does hole true throughout the spring, however, it means that a fall election is nearly a certainty.

I for one hope for a fall election so that I have time to finish my new website!

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We now have a forum


Well we already had a forum, which only really saw use during election time. Here is our new one:

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Contact Us


To get a hold of us, you can e-mail

I will be getting an e-mail tied directly to the website as well shortly.

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Also add our twitter



I promise this one will not turn into my personal account like nixtuff did

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We are now RidingByRiding.Com


Check it out!

We are also as you can tell by the auto-redirect!

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Tuesday, March 2, 2010

We have a website!


Thats right, we have a real .com website (and a .net too) I am confidant the name I've chosen is one that will gain me more traffic than so I don't want to release the name until I have the .ca pinned down (it takes a bit longer to approve a .ca) When that happens I will begin mirroring posts both here and there for about a month or a few weeks, followed by moving the "main" content over there, and using this blog for more summary like posts (numbers, no commentary)


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