Wednesday, February 17, 2010

For Mr.Benoit

<- Read the full response to Mr.Benoit

Today, I, and everyone in my building (I live in a university dorm, in perhaps the most Liberal riding in English Canada) got a flyer from the Conservative Party. It showed Harper and Iggy, noting that Harper is good and Iggy is bad. Thats great and all, except it was not from the Tories after all, it was from Mr. Leon Benoit, MP. I am no stranger to this particular MP, he sends me a lot of mail just like this. I decided to help him out and respond, so in the space provided for comments I let him know that I do not live in his riding, and that if he wants to use his franking privileges most efficiently, my riding is not one he should be targeting, especially not my building.

I offered to help him, and gave him a link to this post. I will respond to him below the fold.

Mr. Benoit. Thank you again for your letter. As I said, however, sadly, my building is not one you should be wasting your money targeting. As niXtuff blog offers election projection services for free to the public, I've decided I will also offer these services to you and your party, at a 50% discount. Below is a list of Ridings that you SHOULD be targeting.

According to my calculations, your party is already winning St.John's South in Newfoundland. Avalon is within grasp too. Radom-Burin-St.George's however is a great place to drive hard for an extra seat.

In PEI there is a chance you can pick up Malpeque

Nova Scotia is somewhat of a lost cause, but money can keep South Shore from going NDP

In NB, Moncton is a good pick up

Quebec is going to be problematic no matter what you do. Best Case Scenario, you hold on to your current seats. Dump your funding into ridings like Roberval, Pontiac, and Beauport. The others are far more safe.

I'll get back to Ontario later.

BC is another place you'll be struggling to hold on. BC has voted against the government more often than any other province (look it up, its true!) They don't like people who are perceived to abuse power. You will need to spend to hold on. I recommend Fleetwood-Port Kells, Richmond, Surrey North, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast, and Vancouver Island North. Don't waste money in Saanich-Gulf Islands, it is more solidly Tory than you think.

In Alberta, there are three ridings you should focus on. Edmonton-Strathcona, Edmonton-Centre, and Calgary West. That's right, Calgary West. Don't laugh. When your party loses it you'll see. I would stop the Liberals there while I had the chance. Spend like there is no tomorrow.

Saskatchewan. Any spending here is mostly wasted. The NDP might make a showing in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, and you might want to knock off Goodale again, but neither riding will change unless the polls do in some radical way. (I am telling you all this presuming you want a Majority - these are the ridings you need to win to do it). Ignore this province.

Manitoba is somewhat of a similar story. Do not underestimate the power of the Liberals in Winnipeg South. I would also not write off Winnipeg North. You are not in a position to take it just yet, but when you do, NDPers will be stunned.

Northern Ontario is one place where you can make gains. Thunder Bay-Superior North is one riding you could steal. Sault Ste Marie is another.

Toronto is mostly a write off. Don't worry about winning a majority without a seat in Toronto. Shit happens. Look at the Liberals in 1980. If you really do want one, the targets are, in order, York Centre, Don Valley West, Scarborough Southwest, Etobicoke Lakeshore (yes, that Etobicoke Lakeshore) and Etobicoke Centre. I would not waste your money within city limits. If it looks like you are going to win a majority, enough people will switch to give you a riding or two

Eastern Ontario is pretty solid and won't move against you or for you very much. If you really have ti spend here, do it in Kingston.

Western Ontario is very similar. London-Fanshaew is winnable, and even London-North Centre is within grasp.

In the Eastern GTA (Durham and York) is also very stable. Ajax-Pickering could fall with enough effort, but I would not waste the cash.

If you want gains in Ontario, it will come from the Western GTA and Waterloo area. Bramlea-Gore-Malton is very hard to knock off, but outside of that, the following ridings should get attention to either help you win them, or help you defend them:
Brampton West. Brampton-Springdale. Guelph. Kitchener Centre. Kitchener-Waterloo. Mississauga South. Mississauga-Erindale.

And thus, you win a majority government.

If you want to know where to focus at current polling levels, you'll have to come back in a few days when I post a full riding by riding projection using current polling numbers.