Saturday, January 10, 2009

Apx numbers

2 new polls

Ipsos and Nanos.

Both have good results for Quebec and Nanos has a large sample from Ontario so lets do more "partial" numbers for you.

Ipsos has the Bloc at 35% in Quebec with the Grits at 32%, the Tories at 19%, and the other parties at lower numbers. Nanos has the Grits at 39%, the Bloc at 29%, the Tories at 17% and the other parties at lower numbers. (I do not include the NDP because even at their highest number, 14%, it would be difficult for them to win any extra seats) Average this out and you get the following numbers:

Lib - 35.5%
BQ - 32%
CPC - 18%
(For the record, the NDP would be 10.5%)

In Ontario, we have to rely on Nanos numbers.
Lib - 39%
CPC - 35%
NDP - 16%
(Greens at 11% for the record)

This should net, approximately, the following seat results:

BQ - 40
Lib - 30
CPC - 5

Lib - 60
CPC - 40
NDP - 6

If you add the 2008 results for the rest of canada (not recommended) you end up with the following numbers for the two main parties:

CPC – 127
Lib – 115

We note, however that the Liberals are far up beyond their 2008 levels, and in fact, are polling near 2006 levels in many places. If true this could swing a half dozen seats towards them. This would give an end result of:

CPC – 121
Lib – 121
BQ - 40
NDP – 25
IND - 1

Now of course a tie is unlikely, and I have warned many times that these are only approximate numbers. I in fact have chosen these particular numbers to show that the two parties are, at this time, neck and neck. Unfortunately, 2 polls are not large enough of a sample size to create a reliable projection from. Check back in a week, as we fully expect to see more polls between now and then, and we will put out our first post 2008 'full projection'