Wednesday, April 29, 2009

New poll - Quebec

A new CTV poll shows us some results for Quebec, but Quebec alone (at the federal level). We will try to find the official results to see if there are national breakdowns. According to CROP, the Liberals have a huge lead in the province.

Lib - 37
BQ - 31
CPC - 15
NDP - 12

We have doubts about this poll as the Bloc has been steady at near 40% in the province for quite a while and this would represent a significant change. Until we get more information, we will not be adding this to the matrix.

BC 2009

Some good news for the NDP. 2 polls say they are doing rather well.

A robbins poll puts them at 42 behind the BC Liberals at 44. This poll also asks voters if they are voting Conservative - a minor provincial party. 5% said yes. The problem is the party is only running in a quarter of ridings, meaning that at least 3% of the province will be upset to find no Conservative on the ballot - we believe they are likely to vote Liberal. The same can be said for the 3.75% that said they were voting for "other", the problem again is that many ridings do not have any "others" running.

Angus reid reports the BC Liberals at 42 and the BC NDP at 39. Again a very high "other" number is found. While we think the Conservatives could break 2% or even 3%, we do not see it likely that the votes for "others" will be much greater, and that many of these looking for a more-right-than-the-liberals voters will default back to the BC Liberals.

We have updated our current projection, however the trendline for the NDP is still negative.

BCL - 53
NDP - 32