Monday, October 13, 2008

Different numbers.

I will compare my numbers to those of the other major "predicto" sites out there. www.electionprediction.org, and www.democraticspace.com

Our final numbers:
124 - Conservative Party of Stephen Harper
88 - Liberal Party of Stephane Dion
51 - Bloc Quebecois of Gilles Duceppe
42 - New Democratic Party of Jack Layton
1 - Green Party of Elizabeth May
2 - Independents (Casey and Arthur)

EP's final numbers:
125 - Conservative Party of Stephen Harper
94 - Liberal Party of Stephane Dion
51 - Bloc Quebecois of Gilles Duceppe
36 - New Democratic Party of Jack Layton
2 - Independents (Casey and Arthur)

DS's final numbers:
128 - Conservative Party of Stephen Harper
92 - Liberal Party of Stephane Dion
52 - Bloc Quebecois of Gilles Duceppe
34 - New Democratic Party of Jack Layton
2 - Independents (Casey and Arthur)

One thing to note is we are the only ones calling for a Green seat. I'll consider this a personal victory for our projections even if we are farther off in other respects.

So where do we disagree? I will outline every riding where we disagree with one or both of these other predictions.


DS = Democratic Space
EP = Electionprediction
NX = niXtuff

Newfoundland
DS has Avalon going CPC. EP and NX have it going Liberal.

Nova Scotia
DS and EP have Central Nova going CPC, NX has it going Green
DS has South Shore going CPC, NX and EP have it going NDP

New Brunswick
DS and EP have Tobique going CPC, NX has it going Lib

Quebec
DS and EP have Charlesbourg going CPC, NX has it going BQ
DS has Roberval going BQ, NX and EP have it going CPC
DS and EP have Hull going Lib, NX has it going NDP
DS and EP have Brossard going BQ, NX has it going Lib

Ontario
DS and EP have Beaches going Lib, NX has it going NDP
DS has Mississauga South going Lib, NX and EP have it going CPC
EP has Halton going CPC, DS and NX have it going Lib
DS and EP have Welland going Lib, NX has it going NDP
DS and EP have Brant going CPC, NX has it going Lib
DS and EP have London West going Lib, NX has it going CPC
DS and EP have Kenora going Lib, NX has it going NDP

Manitoba
DS and EP have Saint Boniface going Lib, NX has it going CPC

Saskatchewan
DS and EP have Palliser going CPC, NX has it going NDP

British Columbia
EP has Vancouver Kingsway going NDP, DS and NX have it going Lib
DS and EP have Esquaimalt going Lib, NX has it going CPC
EP has Saanich going Lib, DS and NX have it going CPC
DS and EP have Surrey North going CPC, NX has it going NDP
EP has Newton going Lib, DS and NX have it going CPC

Territories
EP has Nunavut going Lib, DS and NX have it going CPC

I'll keep a tally on these ridings on election night (as well as limited live blogging when the polls in BC close) and post who was right.