Monday, September 29, 2008
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Monday, September 22, 2008
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Conservative Party / C.P.C. = 151 seats.
Popular Vote = 37.79%
Liberal Party / Lib = 89 seats.
Popular Vote = 29.09%
Bloc Quebecois / B.Q. = 37 seats.
Popular Vote = 7.75%
New Democratic Party / N.D.P. = 29 seats.
Popular Vote = 17.08%
Green Party / Grn = 0 seats.
Popular Vote = 9.74%
Others / Oth = 2 seats.
C.P.C. = 9
Lib = 17
N.D.P. = 5
Others = 1
B.Q. = 37
C.P.C. = 18
Lib = 17
NDP = 2
Others = 1
Lib = 49
C.P.C. = 48
N.D.P. = 9
Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
C.P.C. = 23
N.D.P. = 4
Lib = 1
C.P.C. = 28
C.P.C. = 24
N.D.P. = 8
Lib = 4
C.P.C. = 1
Lib = 1
N.D.P. = 1
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
There are some significant shifts with the addition of today’s polls. The weighting of the pro-Tory trend in the Atlantic has come out in full. The Tories are projected to win at least 9 seats here and have knocked the Greens off the board. Meanwhile, the Tories have lost support and seats in Ontario and Quebec. The Bloc is also staging a resurgence. Not due to increasing poll numbers, but due to weakening Conservative ones. I'm very curious to see where this all stands at the end of the week
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Tories - 148
Liberals - 92
Bloc - 35
NDP - 30
Green - 1
Indp't - 2
A growing liberal resurgence in Quebec is becoming the new trend. Right now the numbers are not enough to change many seats, but that could change by the time that this afternoons polls are weighted into the matrix.
Monday, September 15, 2008
The Bloc Quebecois is projected to win more seats than the NDP. This is partly due to NDP weakness in areas like British Columbia, and a resurgance of Bloc strength in Quebec. The NDP still stands strong in Quebec, we expect them to win two ridings, and there's a small possibility they could take up to five (including that of Bloc leader, Gilles Duceppe!)
The Greens are edging closer to a seat in BC. Not Blair Wilson's seat (that one is going solidly Conservative) but rather the riding of Saanich--Gulf Island where senior Green, Andrew Lewis is running. They are within a few points here and with polls shwoing up to 25% of canadians are willing to vote strategically to defeat the Conservatives, its not out of the realm of possibility that they can win here. Having two MP's in Ottawa will help the Greens emmensley; someone needs to second your bills.
The Greens are also threathening a win in Ontario, in Ottawa Centre. Beyond that, how the recent by-election has changed the field in Guelph remains to be seen, knowing that the Greens are best positioned to unseat the Liberals here, we might find that NDP voters have moved to the Greens. This, of course, remains to be seen.
The Liberals have seen a rebound, and the Tories have dropped from majority status. This is partly due to our updated projection methods in Ontario.
Note that our riding by riding projections have been updated as well.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
What makes our methods different is how we arrive at those polls. Rather then use a straight 5-poll average, we average out all the polls in the past 7 days. We give each poll a "Weight", the default is 9. If the same polling firm has put out many polls in the past 7 days, the "Weight" of their older polls is less then 9 (7 for the second poll, 5 for the third, 3 for the fourth, etc) Also, polls 4 days or older are given a weight below 9 as well. This gives us a full range of opinion that is affected less by one-poll changes then a 5 poll average is. Currently we have 15 polls in our "average", and half of the "weight" comes from the 5 polls taken over the past 3 days.
The second way we differ is what we do once the geometric projection has been completed. We use that projection to find seats that are close, say within 3% or less. We then look at each of those ridings individually and judge if there is any reason the numbers might be wrong. Did a star run here last time who is not running this time? Is the opposite true? Has the incumbent resigned? so on and so forth. When combined with the numbers this gives us a powerful picture of what is going on electorally across the country.
The differences between our methodology and that of others comes out most clear in Quebec. Currently we are projecting the highest numbers for both the Tories and NDP, and lowest for the Liberals and the Bloc. This comes from our Quebec numbers. There is often doubt and people want to discount the numbers when they tell you something that seems incredible (like the NDP winning Hull) but we trust our numbers and methodology in this case. It was my using of these numbers to project 10 Tories in Quebec (and going against every prediction website in the country in doing so) that motivated me to run my own site this time. We have strong confidence in our Quebec numbers.
The addition of 5 new polls and dropping of 2 old ones has a net change of only two seats on the numbers. The "Election Norm" appears to have set in, and this is where the parties will be fighting from for the next month.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Friday, September 12, 2008
Beyond this (which should be coming more clear for the poll-watchers) we have other things we are keeping our eye on.
Gilles Duceppe might be in trouble in his own riding, especially if voters start to associate him with the Bloc's slide. Our numbers put the NDP 5 points behind the Bloc leader in his own riding.
The NDP walks away with 3 seats from Quebec. Outremont and Hull (which they win purely on the numbers, despite having two star candidates here) as well as Westmount.
Ignatieff is knocked out of his own seat as the Tories pick up their first Toronto seat. This is by a wide margin.
The Liberals are shut out of Manitoba
The Tories are shut out of Nova Scotia
On the island of Montreal, the ridings of Lac-Saint-Louis and Peirrefonds-Dollard are threatening to go Tory blue.
The Tories are poised to win 23 seats in Quebec. The numbers alone show them winning 21, with Shefford and Gatineau being a 3-way race. We believe that enough Liberals will vote Tory in election day to defeat the Bloc.
Our polling “work sheet” and more riding-by-riding projections will be put up on our forum shortly.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Monday, September 8, 2008
Now on to the Greens. Why do I have them at 1, and the NDP at 2 in Quebec? First, the Greens. Check the major news websites, CTV, CBC, and so on. They are all considering the Greens a major party, and all have Elizabeth May as one of "The Party Leaders" This makes for a powerful argument that only she can defeat Peter MacKay (Remember, the Liberals are not running here). Although math would tell us the NDP has the best chance (and we think they would - MacKay could finish third) the argument that a party leader can knock off MacKay is much stronger. For this reason, we project a May victory in Central Nova.
Why the NDP in Quebec? One of the key assumptions we are making here is that the Liberals will not be able to hold on to current polling levels in La belle province. The party is very short on cash, its lacking organization, and Dion, who is just disliked in the rest of the country, is hated by some in Quebec. If the Liberals do drop in Quebec, and we think they will, the NDP will be able to edge them out in ridings in urban Montreal. We project them winning Outremont and Westmount.
Here are the polling averages we are working with
More details are on our forum!
This forum is tied to our blog, and will be used to host information that cannot really fit here. For example, the poll-by-poll results that we use to determine our calculations; and shortly, riding-by-riding predictions and maps.
Sunday, September 7, 2008
All the polls from the past three days are averaged, with no one pollster being allowed to carry more then half of that average. Polls from four to seven days ago are also averaged, and given a weight of half. The success of this, of course will depend on how many polls come out every week. If two pollsters do daily rolling polls, this is super, however if we are limited to just one, then our methodology will be difficult to do. Currently, while the polls are sparse, we are using a modified methodology that weights polls from the further past more then we otherwise would.
We take these polling numbers and put them into UBC’s 2008 election forecaster. Using a special method that allows us to increase the vote of each party without swinging it from another party, we then raise or lower the vote of that party so it matches our poll average. We will also take into account the projections offered by democratic space blog, and may give this it’s own weight in our calculations.
Lastly, we then take into account each riding. We will check election prediction blog and look at the “swing” ridings, seat by seat. We then make a judgment call (a human one) based on the information available, and the margin of victory in the simulation. I feel this addition of a human element to be critical to the success of any simulation.
In the end, what we end up with is a prediction that takes into account all the elements needed to properly “see into the future”.
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Our first projection is two days old, but still valid, despite new polls showing the Tories winning potentially two dozen seats in Quebec.
Our methodology will be posted soon!
We encourage our readers to also keep track of other projection websites such as
Election Prediction and Democratic Space
Friday, September 5, 2008
Note that Nixtuff is being re-launched. Following the federal election we will return to our focus on Public Transit issues in the GTA,
All the older posts on the blog (which are currently mostly part of a series either explaining why I believe the things I do, or explain things) will be saved. Any that are about 'current events' of that time will be saved in place, whereas the more "Educational" entries will be removed, reworked, and re-posted at a later date.