First, I want to point out that over on our forum, the Information Bin there are riding-by-riding projections in map form. I'll be adding more information here within the week, so check it out for the latest news!
Now on to the Greens. Why do I have them at 1, and the NDP at 2 in Quebec? First, the Greens. Check the major news websites, CTV, CBC, and so on. They are all considering the Greens a major party, and all have Elizabeth May as one of "The Party Leaders" This makes for a powerful argument that only she can defeat Peter MacKay (Remember, the Liberals are not running here). Although math would tell us the NDP has the best chance (and we think they would - MacKay could finish third) the argument that a party leader can knock off MacKay is much stronger. For this reason, we project a May victory in Central Nova.
Why the NDP in Quebec? One of the key assumptions we are making here is that the Liberals will not be able to hold on to current polling levels in La belle province. The party is very short on cash, its lacking organization, and Dion, who is just disliked in the rest of the country, is hated by some in Quebec. If the Liberals do drop in Quebec, and we think they will, the NDP will be able to edge them out in ridings in urban Montreal. We project them winning Outremont and Westmount.
Here are the polling averages we are working with
More details are on our forum!