Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Poll based Projection

Tweetline: #qc2012 Prévision des Election / Election Projection Sur la base de sondages / Poll based: 68 #PQ | 31 #PLQ | 24 #CAQ | 2 #QS | 0 #ON

Note: this does not include the missing Forum poll

Schedule change

Due to the cat, I take the "night shift" and thus have been up all night. I was also hoping that the Forum poll would come out at midnight, and to be honest, I'm getting a bit tired of waiting, as there is no indication at what time today the poll will be out. 7:30am? 7:30pm? 11:59pm?

I'm thus more likely to head off to bed than I am to stay up longer and keep waiting; so if you don't see that dual update from me after the poll comes out, it is due to my sleeping, and the update will be posted once I wake up.


Here is a tentative schedule until E-day in Ontario's By-Elections and after.

Today, August 29th
Once the new Forum poll is out - and I expect that just about any minute now - I will make a projection update including a map. I will also show the difference between my trendline+gut based projection and the poll-only based projection using poll averages. The formula for the latter is the most recent poll from CROP, Leger, and Forum are averaged out, and, the second most recent from each of those three are averaged as well, given half the weight, and averaged with the more recent polls. Maps will be produced for both projections. I will also try to finish more of those Requests.

Thursday, August 30th
Could be a big turning-point day for the CAQ if they are to take over for the PLQ, or, give versa. Could be a big turning point day for the PQ if they are to slip and fall. I will keep an eye on the media and try to figure out where things are going by the number and tone of positive and negative stories. I will make a projection update regardless of weather or not I have new data. I hopefully will have all the requests done by this point. 

Friday, August 31st
I suspect the media will be jam packed with stories. I may well pick out a few, especially opinion pieces, and explain why I feel they are right or wrong. I will make a projection update regardless of weather or not I have new data.

Saturday, September 1st
My suspicion is that on this day a few polls may come out, but that at least one will be due. This will help me refine my projection methods for the final time as I prepare for the big day. I will also discuss how "We got here" from today, despite the fact this is only a few days away. I will make a projection update regardless of weather or not I have new data.

Sunday, September 2nd
I have a strong feeling I wont have much related to the election to talk about. If this is the case, I will examine other issues (such as a possible projection in another province) and possibly look overseas. I do not forsee any projection update unless a new poll is out.

Monday, September 3rd (Labour Day)
We find out who "Liberal Who" is, and I find out how wrong my guess is. One interesting theory from our friends over at Blunt Objects is that it may be an NDP ploy! Pundits guide presents reasons why it could well be David Merner. Throughout the day expect a number of projections from me, including a "penultimate" one late into the evening. During the day I will examine the highest and lowest that all 6 parties can go, and show the difference between the trendline projection, the poll-only projection, and what my gut says. I will also detail which of those three I'm going with and why.

Tuesday, September 4th
E-Day. Final riding by riding projection will be up by 9am at the latest, and polls open at 9:30. Posts during the day itself may be sparse so that I can stay up all night if need be! The results will be liveblogged, with focus away from the numbers; you can find those in dozens of places, but what I will be providing, is analysis.

Wednesday, September 5th
Most of this day will be spent sleeping likely (recovery from the election night, if it goes on long enough)
In the AM to early PM hours, we will examine "what happened" and "why"
If there is time in the late PM, we will start the discussion on the coming Ontario by-elections

Thursday, September 6th
The focus of discussion on this day will be the Ontario by-elections in Kitchener-Waterloo and in Vaughan. While I can see Vaughan from my roomate's bedroom window, I have not been involved in these by-elections whatsoever and therefore will have no projections, but, will discuss "chances" and polls and anything else relevant. The results will be liveblogged, with a focus on the numbers. 

Friday, September 7th
I have an appointment on this day, and it seems like a good day for a break. I try to make at least 1 post every day, but Friday's post will either be short, or, be about an idea that strikes me.

Saturday, September 8th (and onward) 
Normalcy. You can expect an average of 1.5 posts a day starting here and in to the future, with the numbers dropping when Parliament is out to around 1 a day, and raising to 2 (AM and PM) when Parliament is in. 

A note of caution.
I have two kitty cats, little Scout and little Boo.
Little Boo is ill, and has a feeding tube. From time to time, without much warning, he requires our attention, and sometimes, even an emergency ride to the vet. I will try my best to stick to this schedule, but there may be times when I can not.