Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Look Familiar?

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We are projecting the following:

CPC - 143
Lib - 88
BQ - 47
NDP - 30

143 is the number of seats the Tories won in 2008, and is the number of seats they currently hold. The party continues to trend up, and at this rate, will be in majority territory by the time of the supposed election, November 9th. Much of this strength comes from Ontario, where we have the Tories winning 58 seats at this time. The increasing NDP weakness in crucial areas (Ontario, BC, the Prairies) is also not helping. One cannot help but presume that this is due to the role reversal of the Liberals and NDP regarding just when the Tories need to go.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Tories at 138

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Latest Projection:

CPC - 138
Lib - 90
BQ - 47
NDP - 33

No commentary


Sorry, no extra data today!

Monday, September 28, 2009

By-elections

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There are a number of by-elections that will come up if a General Election is avoided this fall. The date of these by-elections has to be anywhere between November 2 and November 23, of course there is a chance that Harper could decide not to hold all 4 on the same date, meaning that they could happen earlier, or later.

The ridings up are...

Hochelaga
This riding was held by Réal Ménard from the Bloc for 16 years. He is resigning to run for Borough Mayor of Hochelaga. This would appear to be a significant step down for Ménard, who may be planning to remove himself from federal politics in order to make a move elsewhere, either hoping that his municipal party's candidate for Mayor (The interim PQ leader before Boisclair) loses so he can run next time. He might be taking this step back in order to free himself to run for the leadership of the Bloc Queebcois (a very puzzling move if this is his plan) or as a way to transfer to the Parti Quebecois (again, would not make much sense) Regardless of why, he is no longer the MP of this riding. This riding is one of the more left-wing on the island of Montreal. It is one of the 4 ridings that has been solid for the Bloc since 93. Ménard and the Bloc won the riding in 2008 with 49.7% of the vote. The Liberals were next with 20.7% and the NDP with 14.4%. 2006 saw the Bloc get 55.6% with the Liberals at 17.2%, and the Tories in third with 12.2%. 2004 and 2000 saw the Bloc get near or above 50%. 1997 was when the riding came closest to flipping, with the Bloc still taking near 50%, and over 7,000 more votes than the second placed Liberals. While I would not be surprised to see the NDP creep into second place on a weak bloc showing, I would be surprised if anyone except the Bloc Quebecois wins this riding.

Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup
Try saying that 5 times fast. this riding is as francophone as it's name. Paul Crête of the Bloc resigned in order to run provincially, he lost that battle. In 2008 he managed 46% of the vote compared to 31% for the Tories. What's surprising is that despite the Tories being down provincewide from 2006, they were up in this riding; in 2006 the bloc took 52% and the Tories took 25%. The 2004 election was a blow-out for the Bloc in this riding, easily tromping the second placed Liberal candidate with almost a 2-to-1 margin. Prior to this, the riding was split in two. In Bellechasse—Etchemins—Montmagny—L'Islet, the Liberals managed narrow victories over the Bloc in 2000 and 1997 (winning the latter by less than 50 votes) Whats more interesting about the 1997 result is that the PC Candidate was only 1,200 votes behind. In fact in 1993, the Bloc only win this riding by 1,100 votes over the PC Candidate. That small of a margin in 1993 clearly speaks to the character of that portion of the riding. In the other half of the riding, Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup—Temiscouata—Les Basques, the Bloc won without problem in 2000, and managed to beat the Liberals in 1997. Again, we see a PC Candidate here making a very strong third placed showing. That same candidate was defeated, easily in 1993, but held the riding in the 80s. Going back even further, we find some Social Credit friendly territory here. Long story short, this riding does indeed have a true blue Conservative voting base. The problem, however, is Harper, he just is not well liked in Quebec right now. While I do expect the Tories to put up one heck of a fight, I cannot see them winning here, unless something unexpected happens, like Mario Dumont running.

New Westminster—Coquitlam
This BC riding will be the one requiring a By-Election soonest. Dawn Black of the NDP quit to run provincially, and was elected as a BC NDP MLA. This is a swing riding in ways. In 2008, the NDP managed 41.8%, while the Tories took 38.8%. In 2006 the NDP managed 38.3% while the Tories had 32.5%. It was in 2004 that we saw the Tories with 32.9% and the NDP with 32.6%. It is, it seems, the drop in the Liberal vote that has allowed the Tories and the NDP to fight it out. Going back further, we get more results. I note, however, that especially in BC, these results should be treated with Caution. Many who were populist but moderate voted for the Reform-Alliance, and it was from BC where many Alliance moderates (such as current Liberal MP Keith Martin) came from. I will, however, note the results. In 2000, the Alliance won 44% of the vote, compared to the Liberals 31% and NDPs 15%. 1997 saw Reform win with 34% beating the NDP at 30%. Of note, the NDP Candidate in this election, Dawn Black. The Liberals took 29% here. The 1993 election was a close contest between Reform, the Liberals, and the NDP. 1988, however was a clear win for the NDP, again, with Dawn Black. This riding is clearly a toss up between the NDP and the Tories. Looking at current BC polls, and reading the tea leaves, I would give the Tories an edge here.

Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley
Bill Casey was the longtime MP for the area, who resigned to become a lobbyist. Casey had held the riding since 1988, with one interruption, the 1993 term. Casey, however, came within inches of winning the riding even in that election. Casey is an interesting story, first elected as a Progressive Conservative, Casey ended up in Harper's Conservative Party, before being thrown out of it for voting against the Budget. Casey won the 2008 election with a shocking 69% of the vote, beating the official NDP candidate at 12%, the Tory at 9% and the Liberal at 8%. The 2006 election is perhaps a better refernece point, it saw the Tories win with 52%, beating the Liberals at 24% and the NDP at 21%. In 2004, the Tories took 50%, to the Liberals 26%, and the NDP's 19%. 2000 saw Casey, as the PC Candidate, win 48%, compared to the Liberals 27%, the Alliances 13% and the NDPs 12%. In 1997 we saw the PCs at 44%, the Liberals at 26%, the NDP at 14%, and Reform at 14%. The "Long Story Short" is that this is a strong traditionally Tory riding. The only question, then, is how angry its voters are with the Conservative Party. The NDP is on the rise here, with the Liberals managing between 24% and 27% in the recent past. This is good news for the Tories, in that the anti-CPC vote will be split. The problem then comes from the possibility that there are enough angry voters to actually elect one of those candidates, and if that happens it is truly unknown weather that would be the Liberal or the New Democrat. With the recent provincial election, however, I'd say the NDP has the best shot at winning if the Tories lose. I also say, however, that the Tories will not lose.




Sorry, no extra data today!

And over in Portugal

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Portugal had it's own national election. The results are as follows.

96 - Socialist Party
78 - Social Democrats (Moderate, Centrist, Conservative)
21 - Peoples Party (Conservative)
16 - BE (Communist, euro-communist)
15 - CDU (Green and Communist, marxist)



Sorry, no extra data today!

Germany Final

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194 - CDU
93 - FDP
45 - CSU
332 - GOVERNMENT

146 - SDP
76 - LNK
68 - GRN
290 - OPPOSITION

Click here for constituency map. (Does not show PR seats)


Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Germany

<- More elections

Now that counting is near done, we can calculate more reliable results.

In the state of Schleswig-Holstein

30 - CDU
13 - FDP
43 - POSSIBLE GOVERNMENT

22 - SPD
11 - GRN
5 - LNK
4 - SSW (Danish Minority Party)
42 - OPPOSITION

In Brandenburg, the Premier has a choice of coalitions
31 - SPD
19 - CDU
50 - EXISTING COALITION

26 - LNK
7 - FDP
5 - GRN
38 - OPPOSITION

or

31 - SPD
26 - LNK
57 - GOVERNMENT

19 - CDU
7 - FDP
5 - GRN
31 - OPPOSITION

Federally, the results are as follows

239 - CDU/CSU
93 - FDP
332 - GOVERNMENT

147 - SDP
76 - LNK
68 - GRN
291 - OPPOSITION

more elections below the fold.


And past elections as follows:

Saxony Anhalt (2006)
40 - CDU
24 - SDP
64 - GOV

24 - LNK
7 - FDP
31 - OPP


Saxony (2009)
58 - CDU
14 - FDP
72 - GOV

29 - LNK
14 - SDP
9 - GRN
8 - NPD (This is a neo-nazi party)
60 - OPP


Rhineland-Palatine (2006)
53 - SDP

38 - CDU
10 - FDP
48 - OPP


North Rhine-Westphalia (2005)
89 - CDU
12 - FDP
101 - GOV

74 - SDP
12 - GRN
86 - OPP


Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (2006)
23 - SDP
22 - CDU
45 - GOV

13 - LNK
7 - FDP
6 - NPD
26 - OPP


Lower Saxony (2008)
68 - CDU
13 - FDP
81 - GOV

48 - SPD
12 - GRN
11 - LNK
71 - OPP


Hesse (2009)
46 - CDU
20 - FDP
66 - GOV

29 - SDP
17 - GRN
6 - LNK
42 - OPP


Hamburg (2008)
56 - CDU
12 - GRN
68 - GOV (first CDU-GRN alliance in a state, ever)

45 - SDP
8- LNK
53 - OPP


Bremen (2007)
33 - SDP
14 - GRN
47 - GOV

23 - CDU
7 - LNK
5 - FDP
1 - DVU (also a neo-nazi party)
36 - OPP


Berlin (2006)
53 - SDP
23 - LNK
76 - GOV

37 - CDU
23 - GRN
13 - FDP
73 - OPP


Bavaria (2008)
92 - CSU
16 - FDP
108 - GOV

39 - SDP
21 - FW ("Free Voters")
19 - GRN
79 - OPP


Baden-Wurttemberg (2006)
69 - CDU
15 - FDP
84 - GOV

38 - SDP
17 - GRN
55 - OPP


Saarland (2009)
(note, no government has been worked out just yet)
19 - CDU
13 - SDP
11 - LNK
5 - FDP
3 - GRN


Thuringia (2009)
(note, no government has been worked out just yet)
30 - CDU
27 - LNK
18 - SDP
7 - FDP
6 - GRN


More on Germany

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I've done the math from some of the exit polls. Here are the results:

213 CDU/CSU
94 FDP
307 GOVERNMENT

144 SDP
80 LNK
67 GRN
291 OPPOSITION

The CDU is Germany's Conservative Party. The CSU is their allied party, the CSU operates only in the German state of Bavaria, while the CDU operates everywhere else.

The FDP is the German Liberal Party. These are 'European Liberals' and we might think of them as Libertarians over in this part of the world.

The SDP is Germany's main left-wing party, they are Social Democrats by name and practice. The party is generally moderate.

GRN is Germany's Greens. This is where the Green movement started, and Germany is home to one of the world's strongest Green Parties. The Greens in Germany are very much on the left, they are anti-war, and not offended by people suggesting they are socialist.

LNK, or Die Linke (The Link) is perhaps the most interesting party. They are the direct successors to the Communist Party of East Germany. The party is most successful in the former East German states, but has been able to draw in some popular former West German leaders, such as Oskar Lafontaine, a former leader of the SDP in West Germany, who is now co-leader of Die Linke.



Sorry, no extra data today!

Angela Merkel re-elected, exit polls

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(very) early reports are that German Chancellor Merkel has finally got the Majority she wanted. Current results show Merkel's Conservative Alliance (CDU+CSU) being able to form a Coalition with the right-of-centre FDP (Liberals). This coalition would have a majority of about 4 seats, giving them 8 seats more than the combined opposition. (Social Democrats, Greens, and Socialists)

More coverage tonight.

Watch the results once they begin to trickle in: http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_09/ergebnisse/bundesergebnisse/

Sorry, no extra data today!

Me

<- Click to read more about me

There are a few others who run projection blogs. Some of them hide who they are and which parties they support. Others are out in the open about everything, and rely on their methods to be true regardless of their personal views. I am of the latter.

So what would I like out of the election? I suppose my dream scenario would be a Liberal government propped up by the Green Party in an official coalition. Of course, that's not going to happen, at least not this time. My #2 preference would be for a Liberal Majority. My #3 preference, however, is actually for a Conservative Majority. I really think we need to end this decide-bill-by-bill kind of minority governance that could see the government fall at any moment. To that end, I would prefer a coalition to a minority, hence I suppose my #4 option would be for a Liberal-NDP Coalition government.

So, how have I voted?

In the 2008 federal election, I voted for the Green Party.
In the 2007 provincial election, I voted for the Ontario PC Party.
In the 2006 municipal election, I voted for myself - a "Pro-Transit, Right of Centre" candidate
In the 2006 federal election, I voted for the Conservative Party.
In the 2004 federal election, I voted for the Liberal Party.
In the 2003 provincial election, I voted for myself - in the PEI NDP.

As you can see, I've never voted for the same party twice (though I did vote for the right on multiple occasions)

In the coming election, I plan to vote Green, partly because the Liberals are going to win my riding no matter what.

So, where do I stand on the issues?
I want Senate Reform. On Justice and Security issues I'm firmly on the right. On social issues, I'm firmly on the left. I don't have a problem with government, or government spending, but also think taxes should be fair for people of all incomes. I often say that I want "Low taxes on married gay couples" and challenge someone to find a party that wants that too. Due to my unique mix of issues, I find it difficult to find a single party that I can get behind.

So, are my projections biased in some way? I'd like to hope not. My emotions, however, are. For much of the 2008 election I was torn between the Tories and the Greens. Seeing the Tories edge towards a majority, and then fall back from it, had an effect on me, and is one of the reasons my projections dropped off during that period. When you build your own system, and trust it, and it tells you things you don't want to hear, you can get discouraged. I also found it difficult to guesstimate for certain ridings. How powerful, for example, was Elizabeth May, and how many votes would she get? Again, I think my emotions got the better of me, as I clearly over-estimated this. I'd like to think I've learned from my mistakes, however. I win by being right. The closer I get to being 100% accurate, the better a name and reputation I build for niXtuff, and the more attention people will pay to me in the future; which itself leads to more pressure to be accurate, so on and so forth. My goal is to build a program that can, with few inputs, accurately project the entire election.

More about me below the fold.


December 19 1984 - Born at Scarborough General Hospital, Toronto, Ontario.
1985 - Mother and Father, who never married, split. I move with my mother to live with her parents.
1992 - My mother meets my step dad
1993 - My mom and I move in with my step dad, he lives in Mississauga, Ontario.
1995 - Our family, including my mother's parents, move to Summerside PEI
2002 - Started courses at the University of Prince Edward Island
2003 - Grandparents bought me a car
2004 - Crashed my car
2005 - Left University. I realized I was not ready at the time. Moved to Toronto and took up a job as a Security Guard
2006 - Attempted a private projection of the election. Projected 10 Tories from Quebec when no one else dare projected more than 6. I was spot on.
2007 - Started niXtuff, originally as a public transit blog with occasional political news. That reversed itself, and I finally dropped all transit news altogether.

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Tories ever increasings

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No commentary


Sorry, no extra data today!

Friday, September 25, 2009

And over in the world

<- Click here to see the full post

In another expansion of our election blog, we've decided to also offer limited coverage of elections around the world. While we will not post every time a single party semi-democratic developing nation holds an election and re-elects their president with 80% of the vote, we do plan on noting elections in the G20.

A great resources for this can be found here: http://psephos.adam-carr.net/ but Dr. Carr does not update with partial results, or sometimes even within 24 hours of polls closing (He has a real job, he's a professor; I don't have a 'real' job and can afford the time to do this)

According to his site, the following elections are coming up...

27 September: Germany legislative election
27 September: Portugal legislative election
4 October: Greece legislative election
9 October: Czech Republic legislative election
17 January 2010: Ukraine presidential election
30 January 2010: Iraq legislative election

We will follow these elections where possible. Germany and Portugal go to the polls within days.

In Portugal, polls are showing the left-wing Socialist party leading the right-wing Social Democrats. In Germany, polls show the right-wing CDU leading the left-wing SDP.

Below the fold is a list of all forthcoming elections (even the ones we don't plan on following) as well as past elections, from Dr. Carr's website.



Forthcoming elections

27 September: Germany legislative election
27 September: Portugal legislative election
4 October: Greece legislative election
9 October: Botswana legislative election
9 October: Czech Republic legislative election
11 October: Guinea legislative election
25 October: Tunisia presidential and legislative elections
25 October: Uruguay presidential and legislative elections
28 October: Mozambique presidential and legislative elections
14 November: Niger presidential election
28 November: Romania presidential election
29 November: Cote d'Ivoire presidential election
29 November: Honduras presidential election
6 December: Bolivia presidential and legislative elections
11 December: Chile presidential and legislative elections
11 December: Guinea presidential election
17 January 2010: Ukraine presidential election
30 January 2010: Iraq legislative election


Recent notes

I am posting notifications of all changes to this website at my Twitter homepage. If you decide to "follow" me on Twitter, you will receive a notice every time new data is added to this website.

I have been unable to locate figures for the recent elections in Micronesia, Mongolia (legislative) and Equatorial Guinea. Any assistance would be appreciated.


I have now uploaded full constituency results for the April-May India legislative election. Since the Lok Sabha has 543 members, this has taken a while. Update: Now with constituency maps!



Having finally worked out (with some help) how the new Ecuadorian electoral system works, I have uploaded full provincial-level results and maps for the 26 April Ecuador legislative election.



I have now uploaded full constituency-level results for the 9 April Indonesia legislative election. This is the only place you will find these results in English and in a comprehensible form, since the Indonesian Election Commission website is unusable if you don't understand Bahasa Indonesia.


Latest electoral news


20 September: In the Macau legislative election, pro-Beijing candidates have won a majority of the directly-elected seats, although pro-democracy groups made some gains. Figures are available.



14 September: In the Norway legislative election, the left-centre coalition of Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg has been re-elected with a slightly reduced majority, despite polling substantially fewer votes than the conservative opposition parties. Figures are available.



30 August: In the Gabon presidential election, Ali Bongo Ondimba, son of the late President Omar Bongo, has been elected with 41% of the vote against a divided opposition. Figures are available.



30 August: In the Japan legislative election, the opposition Democratic Party of Japan led by Yukio Hatoyama has achieved the greatest electoral victory in modern Japanese history, winning more than two-thirds of the seats and crushing the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Prime Minister Taro Aso. National figures are available.



20 August: In the Afghanistan presidential election, President Hamid Karzai has been re-elected with 54% of the vote, according to unofficial but apparently final figures. Most observers believe there was massive vote-rigging in the election. Figures are available.



Elections in July 2009


29 July: In the Moldova legislative election, which follows the annullment of the election held in April, the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova, led by Prime Minister Zinaida Greceanii, has been defeated after eight years in power. Vlad Filat, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, is likely to become Prime Minister. Figures are available.



23 July: In the Kyrgyz Republic presidential election, President Kurmanbek Bakiev has been elected with 76% of the vote. Figures are available.



18 July: In the Mauritania presidential election, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz of the Union for the Republic has been elected with 52% of the vote. Figures are available.



8 July: In the Republic of Congo presidential election, President Denis Sassou N'Guesso has been re-elected with 78% of the vote. Figures are available.



8 July: In the Indonesia presidential election, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has been re-elected with more than 60% of the vote, defeating former President Megawati Sukarnoputri and Vice-President Jusuf Kalla. Province-level figures are available.



5 July: In the Bulgaria legislative election, the right-wing Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria led by Sofia Mayor Boyko Borisov has decisively defeated the Socialist government of Sergei Stanishev. Figures are available.



5 July: In the Mexico legislative election, the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party has made major gains, at the expense both of President Felipe Calderon's National Action Party and of the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution. Figures are available.


Elections in June 2009


28 June: In the Albania legislative election, the Democratic Party of Prime Minister Sali Berisha and its allies have won 70 seats, one short of a majority, but ahead of the Socialist Party of Edi Rama and its allies, who have 66. After the election a minor party, the Socialist Movement for Integration, which won four seats, announced that it would support a Democratic Party government, thus averting a political crisis. District-level figures and maps are available.



28 June: In the Argentina legislative election, the Front for Victory of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has lost its majority in both houses of the Argentine Congress, although it remains the largest single party. State-level figures are available.



28 June: In the Guinea-Bissau presidential election, Malam Bacai Sanha of the ruling PAIGC leads in the first round. A second round will be held on 26 July. Figures are available.



12 June: In the Iran presidential election, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been re-elected with 62% of the vote, defeating the reformist candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi, according to official figures. The legitimacy of this result has been widely disputed inside and outside Iran. The official figures are available.



7 June: In the Lebanon legislative election, the March 14 Alliance of parties supporting Sa'ad al-Hariri and Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has been returned with its majority unchanged, defdeating an anti-Western alliance led by Hizbollah. Constituency-level figures are available.



4 June: In the European Union legislative election, the centre-right European People's Party has emerged at the largest party, gaining seats from the Party of European Socialists. Figures from all member states are available.



6 June: In the Luxembourg legislative election, the conservative Christian Social People's Party government of Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker has been re-elected with an increased majority. Figures are available.



2 June: In the Greenland legislative election, the left-wing Inuit Ataqatigiit (Inuit Together) has emerged as the largest party. Figures are available.


Elections in May 2009


24 May: In the Mongolia presidential election, Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj of the opposition Democratic Party has defeated the incumbent President, Nambariin Enkhbayar of the Mongol People's Revolutionary Party. Figures are available.



19 May: In the Malawi presidential election, the incumbent president Bingu wa Mutharika has been re-elected with 66% of the vote. Figures are available. No figures are available yet for the parliamentary election held on the same day.



17 May: In the Lithuania presidential election, the independent candidate Dalia Grybauskaite has been elected in the first round with a remarkable 69% of the vote. She will be Lithuania's first female head of state. Figures are available.



16 May: In the Kuwait legislative election, four women have been elected to the National Assembly, for the first time in the country's history. Apparently liberal candidates generally have done well, but I have seen no figures giving party identities. Names and vote totals of elected candidates are available.



16 April to 13 May: In the India legislative election, the Indian National Congress led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh won an increased number of seats, and will be able to form a new government with the support of various allies. Both the conservative BJP opposition and the parties of the Left Front suffered losses. National, state and constituency level figures are available.



9 May: In the Maldives legislative election, the first multi-party legislative election ever held in the country, the Maldives Democratic Party of President Mohamed Nasheed and the Maldivian Peoples Party have won approximately equal numbers of seats, with the balance held by independents. Constituency-level figures and maps are available.



3 May: In the Panama presidential election, Ricardo Martinelli Berrocal of the conservative Democratic Change coalition has been elected with 60% of the vote. Figures are available.


Elections in April 2009


26 April: In the Ecuador presidential election, left-wing incumbent President Rafael Correa Delgado has been re-elected with 52% of the vote. Province-level figures are available.



26 April: In the Andorra legislative election, the Social Democrats led by Jaume Bartumeu Cassany have defeated the incumbent Liberals. Parish-level figures are available.



25 April: In the Iceland legislative election, the left-wing coalition of the social democratic Alliance and the Left-Green Movement, led by Johanna Sigurdardottir has defeated the incumbent conservatives. Constituency-level figures and a constituency map are available.



22 April: In the South Africa legislative election, the ruling African National Congress has won a large majority in the National Assembly, ensuring that Jacob Zuma will be elected President. The ANC has failed, however, to retain its two-thirds majority in the Assembly. Figures are available.



19 April: In the Haiti Senate election, very few voters have taken part following the barring of candidates of the Lavalas Party of former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide. No figures are available.



9 April: In the Algeria presidential election, Abdelaziz Bouteflika of the ruling Front for National Liberation has been elected for a third term with 90% of the vote against only token opposition. Figures are available.



9 April: In the Indonesia legislative election, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democrat Party and Vice-President Jusuf Kalla's Golkar party have polled about 35% of the vote between them, but but have not won a majority of seats. Constituency-level figures are available.



5 April: In the second round of the Macedonia presidential election, Gjorgje Ivanov of the conservative party VMRO–DPMNE has defeated the Social Democrat Ljubomir Frckoski with 63% of the vote. Figures are available.



5 April: In the Moldova legislative election, the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova, led by Prime Minister Zinaida Greceanii, has won an increased majority in the national Parliament. Figures are available. (These elections have since been annulled. See July 2009.)



4 April: In the second round of the Slovakia presidential election, incumbent Social Democratic president Ivan Gasparovic has defeated Iveta Radicova of the Slovak Democratic and Christian Union, with 55% of the vote. Figures are available.


Elections in March 2009


29 March: In the Montenegro legislative election, the governing European Montenegro party of Prime Minister Milo Dukanovic has been returned with an increased majority. Figures are available.



21 March: In Australia, in the Queensland state election, the Australian Labor Party government of Premier Anna Bligh has been re-elected with a reduced majority. Bligh is the first woman to be elected premier of an Australian state. Constituency-level figures and maps are available.



15 March: In the El Salvador presidential election, Mauricio Funes of the left-wing FMLN has defeated Rodrigo Ávila of the ruling right-wing ARENA: the first time the left has won an election in El Salvador since the restoration of democracy in 1980.



12 March: In the Antigua and Barbuda legislative election, the governing United Progressive Party of Prime Minister Baldwin Spencer has been returned to office with a reduced majority. Constituency-level figures and a map are available. I have also added constituency-level results for the 2004 election.


Elections in February 2009


10 February: In the Israel legislative election, the governing centrist Kadima party led by Tzipi Livni has won the largest number of seats in the Knesset, closely followed by the right-wing Likud party of Binyamin Netanyahu. Overall, rightist parties have a majority of seats, but the formation of a new government will depend on negotiations among the parties. Figures are available.



8 February: In the Liechtenstein legislative election, the governing coalition of the Progressive Citizens' Party (FBP) and the Fatherland Union (VU) has won all but one of the 25 seats in the Landtag, but the VU has displaced the FBP as the leading party. The new Prime Minister will be the VU's Klaus Tschütscher. Figures are available.


Elections in January 2009


18 January: In the El Salvador legislative election, the governing ARENA party has lost seats in the National Assembly, although the opposition Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front has not gained a majority. Department-level figures and maps are available.



18 January: In Germany, in the Hessen state legislative election, the governing CDU-FDP centre-right coalition has been returned to office with an increased majority. The opposition SPD polled its lowest vote in the state in the postwar period. Figures are available.


Elections in December 2008


28 December: In the second round of the Ghana presidential election, John Atta-Mills of the opposition National Democratic Congress has defeated Nana A D Akufo-Addo of the governing New Patriotic Party. Figures are available.



18 December: In the Bangladesh legislative election, the first for seven years, the Awami League of Sheikh Hasina Wazed and its allies have won an overwhelming victory, defeating the Bangladesh Nationalist Party of Khaleda Zia. Preliminary national and regional-level figures are available.



14 December: In the Turkmenistan legislative election, members of the ruling Democratic Party of Turkmenistan and other supporters of President Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov have won all 125 seats in the Turkmenistan Mejlis. Human Rights Watch commented: "The conditions are not in place to hold a free and fair election that would be a meaningful reflection of the will of the people." No figures are available.


Elections in November 2008


30 November: In the Romanian legislative election, the Democratic-Liberal Party and an alliance led by the Social Democratic Party have won an almost equal number of seats, with minor parties having the balance of power. County-level figures are available.



16 November: In the Guinea-Bissau legislative election, the ruling African Independence Party of Guinea and Cape Verde has won a comfortable majority in the National People's Assembly. Figures are available.



7 November: In the New Zealand legislative election, the National party led by John Key has defeated the Labour Party government of Prime Minister Helen Clark. Constituency-level figures are available.



4 November: In the Palau presidential election, Johnson Toribiong has defeated Elias Chin in a non-partisan contest. Figures are available.



4 November: In the Puerto Rico gubernatorial election, Luis Fortuño of the New Progressive Party has defeated incumbent Governor Aníbal Acevedo Vil?of the Popular Democratic Party. Figures are available.



4 November: In the United States of America presidential election, the Democratic Party candidate, Senator Barack H Obama of Illinois, has defeated the Republican Party candidate, Senator John S McCain of Arizona, with 52.4% of the popular vote and 365 Electoral College votes. State-level figures and a map are available.



4 November: In the United States of America legislative election, the Democratic Party has won increased majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives. Full Senate and House of Representatives figures are available.


Elections in October 2008


30 October: In the Zambia presidential election, Rupiah Banda of the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy has been elected with 40% of the vote, defeating three other candidates. Figures are available.



29 October: In the second round of the Maldives presidential election, the country's first free presidential election, President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, who has been in power for 30 years, has been defeated by Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives Democratic Party. Figures are available.



24 October: In the Czech Republic Senate election, the opposition Social Democrats and Communists have won 24 of the 27 seats up for election, weakening the coalition government of Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek. Figures and maps are available.



24 October: In the Lithuanian legislative election, held in two rounds on 12 and 24 October, the governing Social Democrats appear to have been defeated by a coalition of conservative parties. Figures are available.



18 October: In Australia, in the Australian Capital Territory legislative election, the Australian Labor Party led by Jon Stanhope has lost its majority in the Legislative Assembly and will be dependent on the Greens to form a new government. Figures are available.



15 October: In the Azerbaijan presidential election, President Ilham Aliyev has been re-elected with 88% of the vote. International observers have described the election as not free and fair. Figures are available.



14 October: In the Canadian legislative election, the governing Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper, has improved its position in the House of Commons, but failed to win an overall majority. Constituency-level figures and maps are available.



8 October: In the Slovenia legislative election, the governing Slovenian Democratic Party of Prime Minister Janez Jansa hasd been defeated by a coalition led by the Social Democrat leader Borut Pahor. Figures are available.


Elections in September 2008


28 September: In the Austrian legislative election, the governing coalition of the Social Democrats and the People's Party has been re-elected, but has suffered heavy losses to the Freedom Party and the Alliance for the Future of Austria. Figures are available.



15 September: In the Rwanda legislative election, the ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front has won a large majority of votes and seats. Figures are available.



7 September: In the Hong Kong SAR legislative election, pro- and anti-Beijing parties have won approximately equal numbers of votes and seats. Constituency-level figures and a map are available.



6 September: In Australia, in the Western Australia state election, the Liberal Party led by Colin Barnett has defeated the Australian Labor Party government of Premier Alan Carpenter, ending Labor's six-year monopoly of Australia's state and territory governments. Figures and a map are available.



5 September: In the Angola legislative election, the first for 16 years, the ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola has won a large majority of votes and seats. Figures and a map are available.


Elections in August 2008


10 August: In Australia, in the Northern Territory election, the Australian Labor Party government of Chief Minister Paul Henderson has been returned with a reduced majority. Figures are available.


Elections in July 2008


27 July: In the Cambodia legislative election, the governing Cambodian People's Party of Prime Minister Hun Sen has been re-elected with an increased majority. Figures are available.



8 July: In the Grenada legislative election, the governing New National Party of Prime Minister Keith Mitchell has been defeated by the National Democratic Congress led by Tillman Thomas. Constituency-level figures are available.


Elections in June 2008


29 June: In the Mongolia legislative election, the governing Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party has retained its majority in the legislature, the Great People's Khural. No figures are yet available.



28 June: In the Iceland presidential election, the incumbent president, Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson, has been re-elected unopposed.



27 June: in the second round of the Zimbabwe presidential elections, opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai has withdrawn, leaving President Robert Mugabe to be elected unopposed, but lacking any electoral legitimacy.



1 June: In the Macedonia legislative election, the conservative- nationalist coalition led by Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski has been re-elected with an increased majority. Figures are available.


Elections in May 2008


21 May: In the Georgia legislative election, the United National Movement of President Mikheil Saakashvili has retained control of the legislature with a reduced but still large majority. Figures are available.



16 May: In the Dominican Republic presidential election, the incumbent President Leonel Antonio Fernández Reyna of the Dominican Liberation Party has been re-elected with 53% of the vote. Figures are available.



11 May: In the Serbia legislative election, the pro-Western and pro-reform parties, led by Boris Tadic's party For European Serbia, have won an increased majority over the anti-Western parties. Figures are available.


Elections in April 2008


26 April: In the Nauru legislative election, a new legislature has been elected on a non-party basis. Constituency-level figures are available.



24 April: In the Tonga legislative election, candidates favouring a fully democratic system have again won a majority of elected seats in the legislature, but will still be outnumbered by members representing the aristocracy or appointed by the king. Figures are available.



20 April: in the Paraguay presidential election, the leftist candidate Fernando Lugo has defeated the conservative Blanca Ovelar, ending 60 years of conservative rule. Figures are available. Results of the legislative election on the same day are not yet available.



13 and 14 April: in the Italian legislative election, the conservative People of Liberty party of Silvio Berlusconi will be able to form a government with the support of the regionalist Northern League, defeating the new centre-left Democratic Party led by Walter Veltroni. For the first time since World War II, there will be no communists in the Italian parliament. Figures are available.



10 April: in the Nepal constituent assembly election, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) has won the most seats. District and constituency-level figures are available.



9 April: in the Republic of Korea legislative election, the conservative Grand National Party of President Lee Myung-bak has won a narrow overall majority, and is likely to have the support of several minor parties. Unofficial figures are available.



6 April: in the Montenegro presidential election, the incumbent president, Filip Vujanovic of the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro, has been re-elected with 51% of the vote. Figures are available.


Elections in March 2008


29 March: in the Zimbabwe legislative elections, President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF has lost its majority of elected members in the national legislature, to a combination of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and minor parties. Figures are available.



22 March: in the Bhutan legislative election, the country's first ever election, the Bhutan Peace and Prosperity Party has won a large majority of votes and seats. Constituency-level figures are available.



22 March: in the Taiwan presidential election, Ma Ying-jeou of the conservative Nationalist Party has defeated Hsieh Chang-ting of the Democratic Progressive Party. Figures are available.



14 March: in the Iranian legislative election, supporters of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are reported to have won a large majority. The elections are generally regarded as rigged, with no parties allowed and most anti-government candidates being barred. No figures have been published.



9 March: in the Spanish legislative election, the Socialist government of Prime Minister Jos?Luis Rodríguez Zapatero has been returned to office with its majority intact. Circumscription-level figures are available.



8 March: in the Malaysia legislative election, the governing National Front of Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi been returned to office with a sharply reduced majority, its worst result since 1969. National, state and constituency-level figures are available.



8 March: in the Malta legislative election, the Maltese Labour Party has won the election in terms of seats gained. But because the Maltese constitution stipulates that the party gaining a plurality of votes must win a majority of seats, and because the Nationalists polled about 1,500 more votes than Labour (though not a majority), extra seats will be allocated to the Nationalists to give them an artificial majority. Figures are available.



2 March: in the Russian presidential election, Dmitrii Medvedev, the candidate backed by outgoing President Vladimir Putin, has been elected with 70% of the vote. The elections were generally regarded as fraudulent. Since it is this archive's view that Russia is no longer a democracy, only a national summary is provided.


Elections in February 2008


24 February: in the second round of the Cyprus presidential election, the communist Dimitris Christofias has defeated the conservative Ioannis Kasoulidis, becoming the first communist ever to win a free national election in an EU country. Figures are available.



19 February: in the Armenian presidential election, Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan of the Republican Party has defeated former president Levon Ter-Petrossian. Figures are available.



18 February: in the Pakistan legislative election, the PML(Q) party of President Pervez Musharraf has been heavily defeated. The Pakistan People's Party is the largest party, and will be able to form a coalition government. National, provincial and constituency-level figures, plus constituency maps, are available.



7 February: in the Belize legislative election, the opposition United Democratic Party led by Dean Barrow has defeated the governing People's United Party led by Said Musa. Constituency-level figures are available.



3 February: in the second round of the Serbian presidential election, the incumbent president, Boris Tadic of the Democratic Party, has narrowly defeated Tomislav Nikolic of the Radical Party. Figures are available.


Elections in January 2008


15 January: in the Barbados legislative election, the opposition Democratic Labour Party of David Thompson has defeated the Barbados Labour Party government led by Owen Arthur. Constituency-level figures and a map are available.



12 January: in the Republic of China (Taiwan) legislative election, the opposition Nationalist Party (KMT) has had a landslide victory over the Democratic Progressive Party of President Chen Shui-bian. Constituency-level figures and maps are available.



5 January: in the Georgia presidential election, incumbent President Mikheil Saakashvili has a small overall lead with counting incomplete. Updated figures are available.


Elections in December 2007


27 December: in the Kenya presidential election, incumbent President Mwai Kibaki is claiming a narrow victory over the opposition candidate, Raila Odinga. The result is being disputed. What appear to be official figures are available.



23 December: in the Thailand legislative election, the People's Power Party of Samak Sundaravej has won the largest number of seats but has not won a majority. Figures and maps are available.



19 December: in the Republic of Korea presidential election, Lee Myung-bak of the conservative Grand National Party has been elected with 48% of vote, defeating Chung Dong-young of the United New Democratic Party with 26%. Province-level figures and maps are available.



2 December: in the Russian legislative election, United Russia, the party backed by President Vladimir Putin, has won a large majority of votes and seats. The elections were generally regarded as fraudulent. Since it is this archive's view that Russia is no longer a democracy, only a national summary is provided.


Elections in November 2007


24 November: in the Australian legislative election the Australian Labor Party led by Kevin Rudd has defeated the Coalition government of Prime Minister John Howard. Preliminary figures are available. My comprehensive pre-election guide remains available here.



20 November: in the Jordanian legislative election, most elected candidates as always are nominal independents and supporters of the government. District-level figures are available.



17 November: in the Croatian legislative election, the Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) of Prime Minister Ivo Sanader has been re-elected, although the opposition Social Democrats have made the biggest gains. District-level figures are available.



17 November: in the Kosovo legislative election, the Albanian-nationalist Democratic Party of Kosovo led by Hashim Thaci has won the largest number of seats. Figures are available.



13 November: in the Danish legislative election, the liberal-conservative coalition government of Anders Fogh Rasmussen has been returned with a reduced majority. District-level figures are available.



11 November: in the second round of the Slovenian presidential election, Dr Danilo Türk, the candidate supported by the Slovenian Social Democratic Party, has been elected. Figures are available.



5 November: in the Trinidad and Tobago legislative election, the People's National Movement of Prime Minister Patrick Manning has been returned with an increased majority. Constituency-level figures are available.



4 November: in the second round of the Guatemala presidential election, Alvaro Colom Caballeros of the National Unity of Hope has defeated Otto Fernando Perez Molina of the Patriotic Party. Figures are available.


Elections in October 2007


28 October: in the Argentinian presidential election, the Peronist candidate Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, wife of the outgoing president, has been elected on the first round. Figures are available. Figures are also available for the Chamber of Deputies and Senate elections held on the same day.



21 October: in the Polish legislative election, the liberal Citizens' Platform party led by Donald Tusk has defeated Jaroslaw Kaczynski's conservative government. District-level figures are available.



21 October: in the Swiss legislative election, the right-wing Swiss People's Party has strengthened its position within the four-party governing coalition. Canton-level figures are available.



14 October: in the Togo legislative election, President Faure Gnassingb?s Rally for the Togolese People has won a majority. Prefecture-level figures are available.


Elections in September 2007


30 September: in the Ecuador Constituent Assembly election, supporters of President Rafael Correa Delgado have won a large majority. Figures are available.



30 September: in the Ukrainian legislative election, supporters of President Viktor Yushchenko and former Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko have won a majority. Regional-level figures are available.



16 September: in the Greek legislative election the New Democracy government of Costas Karamanlis has been re-elected with a reduced majority. District-level figures are available.



9 September: in the Guatemala legislative election, the social-democratic National Unity of Hope (UNE) has won the largest number of seats. Figures are available.



8 September: in the second round of the Sierra Leone presidential election, Ernest Bai Koroma of the All People's Congress has been elected with 54% of the vote. Figures are available.



7 September: in the Moroccan legislative election, the Independence Party of Abbas El Fassi has energed as the largest party. Circumscription-level figures are available.



3 September: in the Jamaica legislative election, the Jamaica Labour Party of Bruce Golding has defeated the incumbent People's National party government, which had been in power for 18 years. Constituency-level figures are available.


Elections in August 2007


11 August: in the Sierra Leone legislative election, the All People's Congress has won the largest number of seats. Constituency-level figures are available.


Elections in July 2007


30 June to 10 July: Counting in the Papua New Guinea legislative election is still not concluded, but I have given up waiting and have posted the constituency figures as they stand.



29 July: In the Japanese upper house legislative election, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has suffered heavy losses to the opposition Democratic Party. Prefecture-level figures are available.



22 July: In the Turkish legislative election, the ruling Justice and Development Party of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been re-elected with a greatly increased vote and comfortable majority. Constituency-level figures are available.


Elections in June 2007


30 June: In the East Timor legislative election, FRETILIN and CNRT have emerged as the largest parties, but neither has won a majority of seats. Figures are available.



24 June: The Togo legislative election scheduled for this date has been postponed indefinitely.



17 June: In the second round of the French legislative election, supporters of President Nicholas Sarkozy have won a comfortable majority in the National Assembly, but the Socialist opposition has polled better than was expected after the first round. Constituency-level figures and maps are now available.



10 June: In the Belgian legislative election, the liberal-socialist government of Guy Verhofstadt has resigned after losing ground to the opposition Christian Democrats. Constituency-level figures are available.



3 June: In the Senegal legislative election, the party of President Abdoulaye Wade has won almost all the seats after the opposition parties boycotted the election. Figures are available.


Elections in May 2007


24 May: In the Irish legislative election, the Fianna Fail-led government of Prime Minister Bertie Ahern has been returned, although the Opposition Fine Gael party made the biggest gains. Constituency-level figures are available.



17 May: In the Algerian legislative election, the ruling National Liberation Front has lost its overall majority in the National Assembly but remains the largest party. As in 2002, the election was marked by very low turnout. Figures are available.



14 May: In the Philippines legislative election, parties opposed to President Gloria Arroyo have won nine out of twelve Senate seats contested. Figures are available. As usual, no figures are available for the House of Representatives elections.



12 May: In the Armenian legislative election, the ruling Republican Party of Armenia and its allies have been returned with an increased majority, in elections generally held to be fair. Figures are available.



12 May: In the Iceland legislative election, the coalition government of Prime Minister Geir Haarde has been returned with a reduced majority. Constituency-level figures are available.



10 May: In the Seychelles legislative election, the ruling Seychelles People Progressive Front has been returned with an unchanged majority. Figures are available.



8 May: In the second round of the East Timor presidential election, Jose Ramos Horta, the current Prime Minister, has defeated Francisco Guterres of FRETILIN with 69% of the vote. Figures are available.



6 May: In the Burkina Faso legislative election, the ruling Congress for Democracy and Progress has retained control of the National Assembly. Figures are available.



6 May: In the second round of the French presidential election, Nicholas Sarkozy of the Union for a Popular Movement has won with 53% of the vote, defeating the Socialist Party's Ségolène Royal. Department-level figures and maps are now available.



4 May: In the Bahamas legislative election, the Free National Movement of Hubert Ingraham has defeated the incumbent Progressive Liberal Party government. Constituency-level figures are available.



3 May: In Britain, in the Scottish regional legislative election, the Scottish National Party of Alex Salmond has emerged as the largest party. Constituency-level figures are available.



3 May: In Britain, in the Welsh regional legislative election, the Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition government has been returned with a reduced majority. Constituency-level figures are available.


Elections in April 2007


29 April: In the Mali presidential election, President Amadou Toumani Tour?has been re-elected with 71% of the vote. Figures are available.



21 April: In the Nigerian presidential election, Umaru Musa Yar'Adua of the ruling People's Democratic Party has been elected with 69% of the vote. Figures are available.


Elections in March 2007


25 March: In the second round of the Mauritania presidential election, Sidi Ould Cheikh Abdallahi has been elected with 53% of the vote. Figures are available.



24 March: In Australia, in the New South Wales state election, the Australian Labor Party government of Premier Morris Iemma has been returned with a slightly reduced majority. Figures are available.



18 March: In the Finnish legislative election, the conservative National Rally party and the Greens have made gains at the expense of the Centre Party and the Social Democrats. The National Rally and the Centre Party are expected to form a new centre-right government. District-level figures and maps are available.



4 March: In the Estonian legislative election, the free market Reform Party of Prime Minister Andrus Ansip made major gains, and will form a new three-party coalition government. Figures are available.


Elections in February 2007


25 February: In the Senegal presidential election, President Abdoulaye Wade has been re-elected with 56% of the vote. Figures are available.



11 February: In the Turkmenistan presidential election, Acting President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov has been elected President with 89% of the vote. Only members of the ruling party were allowed to stand. OSCE observers described the election as "absolutely not free and fair." Figures are available.


Elections in January 2007


25 January: In the Gambia legislative election, President Yahya Jammeh's Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction has won a large majority. Figures are available.



21 January: In the Serbia legislative election, The four pro-Western and pro-reform parties, led by Boris Tadic's Democratic Party, have won a clear majority over the anti-Western Radicals and Socialists. Figures are available.


Elections in December 2006


11 December: In the St Lucia legislative election, The conservative United Workers Party led by Sir John Compton (who was first PM of St Lucia in 1964) has defeated the incumbent St Lucia Labour Party government. Figures are available.



3 December: In the Madagascar presidential election, President Marc Ravalomanana has been re-elected with 55% of the vote. Figures are available.



3 December: In the Venezuelan presidential election, the left-wing President Hugo Chavez Friaz has been re-elected with 62% of the vote, defeating the opposition candidate Manuel Antonio Rosales Guerrero. Figures are available.


Elections in November 2006


26 November: In the second round of the Ecuadorian presidential election, the left-wing candidate Rafael Correa has defeated the liberal candidate Alvaro Noboa, polling 56.7% of the vote. Updated figures are available. Updated figures for the 15 October legislative election are also available.



25 November: In Australia, in the Victorian state election, the Australian Labor Party government of Steve Bracks has been re-elected with a slightly reduced majority. Figures are available.



22 November: In the Netherlands legislative election, the conservative Christian Democrats of Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende have retained their position as the largest party, but will face difficult negotiations to form a majority coalition government. Figures are available.



7 November: In the United States legislative election, the opposition Democratic Party has gained control of both houses of the Congress from the Republican Party of President George W. Bush. Final figures for the Senate and House, plus updated maps of House districts, are now available.



5 November: In the Nicaragua presidential election, former President Daniel Ortega of the Sandinist National Liberation Front has returned to office after polling 38% of the vote in a five-candidate race. Figures are available.


Elections in October 2006


29 October: In the second round of the Brazilian presidential election, incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has been re-elected with 60% of the vote. Figures are available.



29 October: In the second round of the Bulgarian presidential election, the incumbent Socialist candidate Georgy Parvanov has been re-elected with 76% of the vote. Figures are available.



29 October: In the second round of the Democratic Republic of Congo presidential election, President Joseph Kabila has been re-elected with 58% the vote, defeating Vice-President Jean Pierre Bemba with 42%. Figures are available.



7 October: In the Latvian legislative election, the governing coalition of Prime Minister Aigars Kalvitis has returned to office. Figures are available.



1 October: In the Austrian legislative election, the incumbent Austrian People's Party government of Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel his lost its majority, but the opposition Social Democrats led by Alfred Gusenbauer also lack a majority. A "grand coalition" between the two parties is a possible outcome. State-level figures are available.



1 October: In the Bosnia and Herzegovia presidential election, the three ethnic communities, Bosniaks, Croatians and Serbs, have elected members of the collective presidency. Social Democrats have won two of the three positions. Figures are available.



1 October: In the Brazilian legislative election, parties opposed to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva have won a majority of seats in the Senate and improved their position in the Chamber of Deputies. State-level figures are available.


Elections in September 2006


28 September: In the Zambian presidential election, President Levy P Mwanawasa of the Movement for Multi-party Democracy has been re-elected with 43% of the vote over Michael C Sata of the Patriotic Front and Hakainde Hichilema of the United Democratic Alliance. Figures are available.



24 September: In the Gambia presidential election, President Yahyah Jammeh has been re-elected with 67% of the vote. Figures are available.



23 September: In the Yemen presidential election, President Ali 'Abdullah Salih has been re-elected with 77% of the vote. Figures are available.



17 September: In Germany, in the Berlin and Mecklenberg state elections, the Social Democrats have retained government in both states. Figures are available.



17 September: In the Swedish legislative election, the centre-right coalition led by Fredrik Reinfeldt of the Moderate Party has won a majority over the Social Democrats. District-level figures and maps are available.



10 September: In the Montenegro legislative election, the country's first since becoming independent, the Coalition for European Montenegro of Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic has won a majority. Figures are available.



9 September: In Australia, in the Queensland state election, the Australian Labor Party government of Peter Beattie has been re-elected with a slightly reduced majority. Preliminary constituency-level figures are available.

Elections in August 2006


28 August: In the Guyana legislative election, the ruling People's Progressive Party has been re-elected with an increased majority and 54% of the vote. Figures are available.



3 August: In the Tuvalu legislative election, a new legislature has been elected on a non-party basis. Figures are available.


Elections in July 2006


30 July: In the Democratic Republic of Congo presidential election, the first free election in the country since 1960, President Joseph Kabila has polled 44.8% of the vote, while his nearest rival, Vice-President Jean Pierre Bemba, has polled 20%. A run off will be held in October. Figures are available. Figures are also available for the legislative election held on the same day.



30 July: In the Sao Tome and Principe presidential election, President Fradique De Menzes of the Independent Democratic Action party has been re-elected with 60% of the vote. Figures are available.



28 July: In the Seychelles presidential election, President James Michel of the Progressive Front of the Seychelles People has been re-elected with 54% of the vote. Figures are available.



5 July: In the Macedonia legislative election, the conservative nationalist VMRO-DPMNE coalition of Nikola Gruevski has defeated the incumbent Social Democratic government. District-level figures and maps are available.


Elections in June 2006


2 July: In the Mexican presidential election, the conservative Felipe de Jesus Calderon Hinojosa of the National Action Party has narrowly defeated the leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the Party of the Democratic Revolution. Final figures are available. Figures for the Senate and Chamber of Deputies elections held on the same day are also available.



17 June: In the Slovakia legislative election, the centre-left Direction party of Robert Fico has emerged as the largest party. Figures are available.



5 June: In the second round of the Peruvian presidential election, former President Alan García Pérez has defeated Ollanta Humala Tasso with 54% of the vote. Figures are available. District-level figures for the legislative elections held on the same day are also available.



4 June: In the San Marino legislative election, the Christian Democrats have won the largest number of seats. Figures are available.



2 and 3 June: In the Czech Republic legislative election, the conservative Civic Democratic Union and its allies have won exactly half the seats, while the ruling Social Democrats and the Communists have retained the other half, creating a deadlock. Figures are available.


Elections in May 2006


28 May: In the Colombia presidential election, Conservative President Alvaro Uribe has been elected to a second term with 62% of the vote. Figures are available.



21 May: In the Cyprus legislative election, supporters of President Tassos Papadopoulos have won a majority in the legislature. Figures are available.



16 May: In the second round of the Comoros presidential election, Ahmed Abdallah Sambi has been elected with 58% of the vote. Figures are available.



16 May: In the Dominican Republic legislative election, the Party of Dominican Liberation of President Leonel Fernández Reyna has won majorities in both chambers. Figures are available.



6 May: In the Fiji Islands legislative election, the governing Fiji United Party, which represents ethnic Fijians, has been returned with a narrow majority over the Fiji Labor Party, which is dominated by ethnic Indians. Figures are available.



6 May: In the Singapore legislative election, the governing People's Action Party has been re-elected with its majority intact but some decline in its level of support. Figures are available.



3 May: In the Chad presidential election, President Idriss Deby has been re-elected with 64% of the vote. Figures are available.


Elections in April 2006


23 April: In the second round of the Hungarian legislative election, the governing Hungarian Socialist Party and its allies have defeated the opposition Alliance of Free Democrats. Figures are available.



9 April: In the Italian legislative election, the centre-left Olive Tree coalition has won a very narrow victory over the incumbent rightist House of Freedom coaliion of Silvio Berlusconi. Figures and maps are available.



5 April: In the Solomon Islands legislative election, the Prime Minister, Sir Allen Kemakeza, has resigned following the loss of many seats. Figures are available.



2 April: Following the Thailand legislative election, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has resigned, despite the fact that his Thais Love Thais party won 61% of valid votes and an overwhelming majority of seats, following a boycott by the opposition parties. Preliminary figures are available.


Elections in March 2006


31 March: In the Samoa legislative election, the governing Human Rights Protection Party has won an increased majority. Constituency-level figures are available.



28 March: In the Israel legislative election, Acting Prime Minister's Ehud Olmert's Kadima Party has won enough seats to be able to form a centre-left coalition government with Labour and other parties. Figures are available.



26 March: In the Ukraine legislative election, supporters of opposition leaders Viktor Yanukovitch and Julia Timoshenko have made major gains, mainly at the expense of the Communists but also at the expense of supporters of President Viktor Yushchenko. Figures are available.



26 March: In the São Tom?and Príncipe legislative election, the Democratic Movement of the Forces for Change has won a majority of seats. Figures are available.



19 March: In the Belarus presidential election, President Aleksandr Lukashenko has been re-elected with an officially reported 87% of the vote. Figures are available.



19 March: In the second round of the Benin presidential election, independent candidate Boni Yayi has been elected with 74% of the vote. Figures are available.



12 March: In the South Australian and Tasmanian state elections, Australian Labor Party governments have been easily re-elected. Preliminary figures are available.



12 March: In the Colombia legislative election, supporters of President Álvaro Uribe have retained control of both houses of the Congress. Figures are available.



12 March: In the El Salvador legislative election, the conservative ARENA party and its allies have retained control of the Legislative Assembly. Figures are available.


Elections in February 2006


23 February: In the Uganda presidential election, President Yoweri Museveni of the National Resistance Movement has been re-elected with 59% of the vote. Figures are available.



12 February: In the Cape Verde presidential election, President Pedro Verona Rodrigues Pires of the African Party for the Independence of Cape Verde has been re-elected with 51% of the vote. Figures are available.



6 February: In the Haiti presidential election, Rene Preval of the radical Lespwa (Hope) coalition has been declared the winner with 51% of the vote. Final figures are available. Figures are also available for the Senate election held on the same day.



5 February: In the Costa Rica presidential election, Oscar Arias Sanchez of the National Liberation party holds a narrow lead over Otton Solis Fallas of the Citizen Action party. Figures are available. Figures from the legislative elections held on the same day are also available.


Elections in January 2006


29 January: In the second round of the Finnish presidential election, incumbent Social Democratic President Tarja Halonen has defeated Sauli Niinisto of the National Rally with 51% of the vote. Figures are available.



25 January: In the Palestinian Territories legislative election, the Islamist party Change and Reform (Hamas) has defeated the incumbent Fatah Movement government. Figures are available.



23 January: In the Canadian legislative election, the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper will form a minority government following the defeat of Paul Martin's Liberal government. Figures are available.



22 January: In the Cape Verde legislative election, the governing African Party for the Independence of Cape Verde has been re-elected with an increased majority. Figures are available.



22 January: In the Portuguese presidential election, Anibal Cavaco Silva of the conservative Social Democratic Party has defeated former President Mario Soares. Figures are available.



18 January: In the second round of the Chilean presidential election, Michelle Bachelet of the centre-left Democratic Coalition has defeated Sebastián Piñera of the conservative National Renewal. Figures are available.



Thursday, September 24, 2009

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Nothing new today

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Nothing new today (23rd) so no posting of any use (just this letting you know I do plan to keep my daily schedule where possible)

I will try to work on some "real neat" graphics however for use during the election.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

A look back

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With Parliament in the middle of a week off, and with no polls in the past few days, this is an excellent chance to take a look back.

Below is a chart showing our poll-based projections since the end of January of this year.



While the Liberals enjoyed a stint in first place during the summer, for most of the period, Harper's Tories have lead. The only dramatic swing has taken place within the last month. The chart mostly speaks for itself.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Monday, September 21, 2009

Polls

<- Click here to see the full post

All environics polls from the late 70's to 2006, below.



Sunday, September 20, 2009

Upcoming elections

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updated information

Federal - November 9 2009 (We expect it on this date, but it is not certain)
New Brunswick - September 27 2010 (Fixed election dates)
Yukon - unknown 2010 (no interest in fixed dates)
Manitoba - unknown 2011 (proposed fixed: June 14 2011)
Prince Edward Island - October 3 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Ontario - October 6 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Newfoundland - October 11 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Saskatchewan - November 7 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Alberta - unknown 2012 (has rejected the idea of fixed dates)
Quebec - unknown 2012 (no interest in fixed dates)
British Columbia - May 14 2013 (Fixed election dates)
Nova Scotia - unknown 2013 (possibly looking towards fixed dates)



Sorry, no extra data today!

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Daily Updates

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If its not clear already, then I will make it so. I've decided to do daily updates from now to the election (assuming it is in November 9th) with the proviso that in slow news weeks I might knock it back to 36 or 48 hours.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Friday, September 18, 2009

ADQ leadership race

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Over in Quebec, the right-wing ADQ is having a leadership race to replace Mario Dumont. The two front runners have recently been caught in a spat that was rather ugly. Gilles Taillon, former #2 in the party, announced he has cancer and will remain in the race while seeking treatment. Taillon purposefully parachuted himself in 2008 into a riding that was unwinnable for his party, and promptly lost his seat. That prompted Éric Caire, his main challenger, to ask if the party leader should be in "intensive care".

Insensitive as it may be, Caire has a point, and other leaders with cancer have tried to lead their parties and not done an amazing job, the latest case being the Yukon NDP's Todd Hardy, who spent half the campaign in hospitals in BC.

While Caire does raise a valid concern, he's clearly done it in an invalid way. This has brought attention to the ADQ race that it does not need.

In fact, what we now have is two candidates, one who loses on purpose and another who cant keep his foot out of his mouth, who want to lead a party that needs to rebuild. All of this is very bad news for the ADQ.



Sorry, no extra data today!

Tories reaching majority territory

<- Click here to see the full post

The Tories are on a roll, storming ahead at the expense of the Liberals. As they steal percentages and half of percentages from the Liberal vote, we find the NDP is benefiting despite heading in a downward direction. The only place the Tories are heading down is in BC, while they are picking up speed in Ontario. Our projection is closing in on our trendline, at this rate we expect the Tories to be at 143 by the end of next week (Note, however, that trendlines can change rapidly, and they could easily find themselves at 124)




Now that we have a "below the fold" option (IE the "READ MORE!" button) I am able to add extra images of the ElectoMatic to the post. Click to see riding by riding projections in certain areas.





Final St.Paul's results

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Lib - 47.60 - (+0.17%)
PC - 28.33 - (+1.79%)
NDP - 16.88% - (+1.14%)

The real winners tonight are the Liberals, Dalton McGunity, and the HST. The two anti-HST parties, the Tories and the NDP, only managed to take votes away from the Greens who have remained ambiguous on the issue. Clearly not only is the HST not the volitile issue that people make it out to be, but the Liberals even gained votes on their 2007 results, where a star cabinet minister was the candidate. The Tories meanwhile could not increase their vote significantly even with their own star running.



Sorry, no extra data today!

Thursday, September 17, 2009

St.Paul's

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Liberal - 47.51% (+0.08%)
PC - 26.87% (+0.33%)
NDP - 18.35% (+2.61%)
Grn - 5.51% (-2.83%)
86 of 238 polls

Next update will come when all polls are in


Sorry, no extra data today!

Live Blogging (not really)

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Currently in St.Pauls
Liberal - 48%
PC - 27%
NDP - 18%
Grn - 5%


Sorry, no extra data today!

Harper on the up and up (and up and up)

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As news hits that the NDP may support the government though the fall, the polls say that the Tories are doing ever better. Our current projection is as follows

CPC - 133
Lib - 96
BQ - 47
NDP - 32


Sorry, no extra data today!

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

St. Paul's By-Election

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We are projecting a 80% chance of a Liberal win here with a 20% chance of a PC win. The PC Party has just not been visible enough to take the riding based on the campaign, it will depend on an HST revolt to win them the riding, and with the Anti-HST vote split, the chances are low but not impossible.


Sorry, no extra data today!

UK election projection

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We've made our first projection for the coming UK election. This is a rough projection and should not be treated as "official".

Con - 365 (Majority of 82)
Lab - 215
L-D - 40
Oth - 30


Sorry, no extra data today!

No election this week

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I posted this on a few other blogs as commentary

"I'm enjoying this really. For years, literally, the NDP and Bloc have been crying Election! Election! Election!

Finally, they have their first real attempt to force one (Remember, Harper called the 2008 election), thats right their first real chance to force an election now that the Liberals want one too, and BOTH the NDP and Bloc change their mind!

I LOLed."


Sorry, no extra data today!

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Projection Update

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CPC - 129 (Trending up)
Lib - 103 (Stable)
BQ - 47 (Stable)
NDP - 29 (Trending down)


No Commentary

Hinman wins seat in provincial by-election

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Paul Hinman, outgoing leader of the right-wing Wildrose Alliance party has won a provincial by-election in Calgary. Hinman was elected in 2004 for the Alberta Alliance, and became it's only MLA. Hinman later ran for and won the leadership of that party, which merged with the Wildrose Alliance prior to the 2008 election. Hinman narrowly lost his seat in that election and has stepped down as leader, but now finds himself back in the legislature as his party's only representative. This is viewed as a bad sign for Alberta Pramier Ed Stelmach


Sorry, no extra data today!

Monday, September 14, 2009

Interesting facts

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I found out two interesting facts today. The closest embassy to the US Capitol building is the Canadian embassy. The closest embassy to the Canadian Parliament buildings, is the US embassy. The only embassy between both countries leaders residences (24 Sussex and the White House) and their legislatures (Parliament and Congress) are each other's embassies.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Minimax for each riding!

<- Click here to see the full post

I've re-applied the Minimax idea (IE the maximum and minimum we can expect the parties to take in this election to each and every riding. I've used the ElectoMatic to help me put in on a pretty table. The text is small, but this was necessary in order to fit all 308 ridings in. Tables below the fold.



CLICK EACH TABLE TO MAGNIFY!





Saturday, September 12, 2009

And over in the provinces

<- Click here to see the full post

As always, we try to keep track of news from the provinces as well. Below the fold (IE read more) I've put the current political status (seat standings, party leaders, by-election data) of each province. I've decided to post the 'notes' above. Counter-intuitive, perhaps, but it fits better.

I've noticed that the new Saskatchewan Liberal and BC Liberal logos look an awful lot like the 1980 Ontario Liberal logo. The word Liberal, in red, with a raising sun over the letters ERA - much similar to the 2004 federal logo only with a sun in place of the Maple Leaf.

The Green Party is banned in Alberta. It's nothing political, the party failed to file its financial returns on time, and due to the law, will be unable to run in the next election. There is nothing preventing them from setting up a front party, so long as they are not caught, but their official plan is to run a non-party organization to keep all Greens together until the following election. The party in the province has been bitterly divided, and hopefully during their time off, they can get their act together.

The only major change is in the Yukon, where the government has lost its majority.



Ontario
71 - Liberal - Dalton McGunity
25 - PC - Tim Hudak
10 - NDP - Andrea Horwath
1 - Vacant - St.Paul's (Lib/PC tossup) Sept 17
0 - Green - Frank de Jong - New leader picked Nov 15 2009

Quebec
67 - Liberal - Jean Charest
50 - Parti Quebecois - Pauline Marois
6 - Action Democratique - Sylvie Roy (Interim) New Leader picked Feb 2010
1 - Quebec Solidarie - Amir Khadir
1 - Vacant - Rosseau (Leans PQ)
0 - Parti Vert - Guy Rainville

British Columbia
49 - Liberal - Gordon Campbell
35 - New Democrats - Carole James
1 - Independent - Vicki Huntington (Leans right)
0 - Green Party - Jane Sterk

Alberta
70 - PC - Ed Stelmach
9 - Liberal - David Swann
2 - New Democrats - Brian Mason
1 - Independent - Guy Boutilier (Leans right)
1 - Vacant - Calgary Glenmore (Strong PC) Sept 14
0 - Wildrose Alliance - Paul Hinman - New leader picked October 17 2009

Manitoba
34 - New Democrats - Gary Doer - New leader picked October 17 2009
19 - PC - Hugh McFadyen
2 - Liberal - John Gerrard
0 - Green - James Beddome
1 - Vacant - Concordia (Doer's riding, solid NDP)

Saskatchewan
38 - Saskatchewan Party - Brad Wall
18 - New Democrats - Dwain Lingenfelter
2 - Vacant - Saskatoon Riversdale, Regina Douglas Park (Both solid NDP) Sept 21
0 - Liberals - Ryan Bater
0 - Greens - Larissa Shasko

Nova Scotia
31 - New Democrats - Darryl Dexter
11 - Liberal - Stephen McNeil
8 - PC - Karen Casey (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Greens - Ryan Watson
2 - Vacant - Antogonish and Inverness (3-way toss ups)

New Brunswick
33 - Liberal - Shawn Graham
22 - PC - David Alward
0 - New Democrats - Roger Duguay
0 - Greens - Mike Milligan (Interim) New Leader picked 2009/2010

Newfoundland and Labrador
44 - PC - Danny Williams
3 - Liberal - Yvonne Jones (Interim) New Leader picked 2009/2010
1 - New Democrats - Lorraine Micheal

Prince Edward Island
24 - Liberal - Robert Ghiz
3 - PC - Olive Craine (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Green Party - Sharon Labchuck
0 - New Democrats - James Rodd

Yukon
9 - Yukon Party - Dennis Fentie
5 - Liberal Party - Arthur Mitchell
2 - New Democrats - Todd Hardy - New Leader Elizabeth Hanson to be confirmed sept 26
2 - Independent - John Edzerza (Leans NDP) - Brad Cathers (Leans Yukon Party)

Solid Ridings

<- Click here to see the full post

Using our new "read more" feature, I've included a full list of "solid" ridings below. These are seats that we are, at this time, 100% certain will be won by the party in question.

NDP: 6
BQ: 27
Lib: 34
CPC: 59 (This means we are nearly 100% certain the Tories will not be knocked into third place or worse)




NDP
Sackville - NS
Acadie - NB
Windsor West - ON
Hamilton Centre - ON
Timmins - ON
Winnipeg North - MB


BQ:
Quebec
Argenteuil
Berthier
Joliette
Montcalm
Repentigny
Riviere-des-Mille-Iles
Rivere-du-Nord
Terrebonne-Blainville
Trois-Rivieres
Abitibi-Temiscamingue
Montmorency
Chicoutimi
Manicouagan
Montmagny
Beauharnois
Chambly
Chateauguay
Bas Richelieu
Richmond
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean
Sherbrooke
Vercheres
Hochelaga
La Pointe-de-L'Ilse
Laurier
Rosemont


Liberal:
Bonavista - NL
Humber - NL
Labrador - NL
Hull - QC
Bourassa - QC (Montreal)
Honore - QC (Mtl)
Lac-Saint-Louis - QC (Mtl)
LaSalle - QC (Mtl)
Laval-Les Iles - QC (Mtl)
Notre-Dame - QC (Mtl)
Pierrefonds - QC (Mtl)
Saint-Laurent - QC (Mtl)
Saint-Leonard - QC (Mtl)
Westmount - QC (Mtl)
Mississauga East - ON (Greater Toronto Area)
Mississauga-Brampton - ON (GTA)
Don Valley East - ON (Toronto)
Etobicoke North - ON (To)
Pickehring Scarborough - ON (To)
Scarborough Centre - ON (To)
Scarborough Agincourt - ON (To)
Scarborough Guildwood - ON (To)
Scarborough Rouge River - ON (To)
St. Pauls - ON (To)
Toronto Centre - ON (To)
Willowdale - ON (To)
York West - ON (To)
Markham - ON (GTA)
Vaughan - ON (GTA)
Ottawa South - ON
Ottawa Vanier - ON
Vancouver Quadra - BC


Conservative:
Fundy - NB
New Brunswick Southwest - NB
Tobique - NB
Beauce - QC
Elgin - ON
Lambton - ON
Oxford - ON
Perth - ON
Sarnia - ON
Cambridge - ON
Niagara West - ON
Wellington - ON
Barrie - ON
Durham - ON
Dufferin - ON
Simcoe-Grey - ON
York-Simcoe - ON
Carleton - ON
Haliburton - ON
Lanark - ON
Leeds - ON
Nepean - ON
Renfrew - ON
Stormont - ON
Dauphin - MB
Pirtage - MB
Provencher - MB
Cypress Hills - SK
Souris - SK
Yorkton - SK
Calgary East - AB
Calgary North Centre - AB
Calgary Nose Hill - AB
Calgary Southeast - AB
Calgary Southwest - AB
Edmonton-Beaumont - AB
Edmonton-Leduc - AB
Edmonton-St.Albert - AB
Edmonton-Sherwood Park - AB
Edmonton-Spruce Grove - AB
Athabasca - AB
Crowfoot - AB
Lethbridge - AB
Macleod - AB
Medicine Hat - AB
Peace River - AB
Red Deer - AB
Vegerville - AB
Westlock - AB
Wetaskiwin - AB
Wild Rose - AB
Yellowhead - AB
Abbotsford - BC
Langley - BC
Port Moody - BC
Chilliwack - BC
Kootenay - BC
Okanagan-Coquihalla - BC
Prince George-Peace River - BC

New feature

We are experimenting on adding a new "read more" feature to the blog Looks like it works.

Minimax

As recently reported by fellow projection blog, Three Hundred Eight, it is possible to take recent polls and show maximum and minimum levels of support. We've decided to take that one step further and go for broke, by expanding this and throwing it into the ElectoMatic.

First, we start with the Green Party. If every other party had their worst election projectable at this time, the Greens would walk away with 14 seats and 18.3% of the vote. This is, of course, a radical extreme, but still worth discussing. Which 14 ridings would they win? Central Nova, Fredericton, Owen Sound, Guelph, Brandon-Souris, Winnipeg Centre, and 8 seat from BC; Vancouver Centre, Kelowna, Nanaimo, the other Nanaimo, North Okanagan, Saanich, Victoria, and West Vancouver. Of course that's not going to happen unless we see some kind of unexplaniable change.

What about the Bloc, what if they maxed out? They would win a whopping 61 seats, and take over half the vote in the province. The Tories would be left with Beauce, and the Liberals would only take Hull and 12 Montreal ridings.

What if the NDP maxed out? They could displace the Bloc, but would fail to take the official opposition. They would take 66 seats. They'd gain only one seat in Newfoundland, but would sweep all 11 Nova Scotia ridings; take 19 in Ontario, 5 in Manitoba, 7 in Saskatchewan, 2 in Edmonton, and 16 in BC.

What if the Liberals maxed out, would they win a majority? Yes, with 165 seats.

And the Tories? 188 seats.

I will be using some of these numbers and our trendlines and baselines in application with riding results to project ridings that we already know at this time are "solid" for one or another party. Expect these results in the not too distant future.