Saturday, September 12, 2009

And over in the provinces

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As always, we try to keep track of news from the provinces as well. Below the fold (IE read more) I've put the current political status (seat standings, party leaders, by-election data) of each province. I've decided to post the 'notes' above. Counter-intuitive, perhaps, but it fits better.

I've noticed that the new Saskatchewan Liberal and BC Liberal logos look an awful lot like the 1980 Ontario Liberal logo. The word Liberal, in red, with a raising sun over the letters ERA - much similar to the 2004 federal logo only with a sun in place of the Maple Leaf.

The Green Party is banned in Alberta. It's nothing political, the party failed to file its financial returns on time, and due to the law, will be unable to run in the next election. There is nothing preventing them from setting up a front party, so long as they are not caught, but their official plan is to run a non-party organization to keep all Greens together until the following election. The party in the province has been bitterly divided, and hopefully during their time off, they can get their act together.

The only major change is in the Yukon, where the government has lost its majority.

71 - Liberal - Dalton McGunity
25 - PC - Tim Hudak
10 - NDP - Andrea Horwath
1 - Vacant - St.Paul's (Lib/PC tossup) Sept 17
0 - Green - Frank de Jong - New leader picked Nov 15 2009

67 - Liberal - Jean Charest
50 - Parti Quebecois - Pauline Marois
6 - Action Democratique - Sylvie Roy (Interim) New Leader picked Feb 2010
1 - Quebec Solidarie - Amir Khadir
1 - Vacant - Rosseau (Leans PQ)
0 - Parti Vert - Guy Rainville

British Columbia
49 - Liberal - Gordon Campbell
35 - New Democrats - Carole James
1 - Independent - Vicki Huntington (Leans right)
0 - Green Party - Jane Sterk

70 - PC - Ed Stelmach
9 - Liberal - David Swann
2 - New Democrats - Brian Mason
1 - Independent - Guy Boutilier (Leans right)
1 - Vacant - Calgary Glenmore (Strong PC) Sept 14
0 - Wildrose Alliance - Paul Hinman - New leader picked October 17 2009

34 - New Democrats - Gary Doer - New leader picked October 17 2009
19 - PC - Hugh McFadyen
2 - Liberal - John Gerrard
0 - Green - James Beddome
1 - Vacant - Concordia (Doer's riding, solid NDP)

38 - Saskatchewan Party - Brad Wall
18 - New Democrats - Dwain Lingenfelter
2 - Vacant - Saskatoon Riversdale, Regina Douglas Park (Both solid NDP) Sept 21
0 - Liberals - Ryan Bater
0 - Greens - Larissa Shasko

Nova Scotia
31 - New Democrats - Darryl Dexter
11 - Liberal - Stephen McNeil
8 - PC - Karen Casey (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Greens - Ryan Watson
2 - Vacant - Antogonish and Inverness (3-way toss ups)

New Brunswick
33 - Liberal - Shawn Graham
22 - PC - David Alward
0 - New Democrats - Roger Duguay
0 - Greens - Mike Milligan (Interim) New Leader picked 2009/2010

Newfoundland and Labrador
44 - PC - Danny Williams
3 - Liberal - Yvonne Jones (Interim) New Leader picked 2009/2010
1 - New Democrats - Lorraine Micheal

Prince Edward Island
24 - Liberal - Robert Ghiz
3 - PC - Olive Craine (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Green Party - Sharon Labchuck
0 - New Democrats - James Rodd

9 - Yukon Party - Dennis Fentie
5 - Liberal Party - Arthur Mitchell
2 - New Democrats - Todd Hardy - New Leader Elizabeth Hanson to be confirmed sept 26
2 - Independent - John Edzerza (Leans NDP) - Brad Cathers (Leans Yukon Party)

Solid Ridings

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Using our new "read more" feature, I've included a full list of "solid" ridings below. These are seats that we are, at this time, 100% certain will be won by the party in question.

NDP: 6
BQ: 27
Lib: 34
CPC: 59 (This means we are nearly 100% certain the Tories will not be knocked into third place or worse)

Sackville - NS
Acadie - NB
Windsor West - ON
Hamilton Centre - ON
Timmins - ON
Winnipeg North - MB

Bas Richelieu
La Pointe-de-L'Ilse

Bonavista - NL
Humber - NL
Labrador - NL
Hull - QC
Bourassa - QC (Montreal)
Honore - QC (Mtl)
Lac-Saint-Louis - QC (Mtl)
LaSalle - QC (Mtl)
Laval-Les Iles - QC (Mtl)
Notre-Dame - QC (Mtl)
Pierrefonds - QC (Mtl)
Saint-Laurent - QC (Mtl)
Saint-Leonard - QC (Mtl)
Westmount - QC (Mtl)
Mississauga East - ON (Greater Toronto Area)
Mississauga-Brampton - ON (GTA)
Don Valley East - ON (Toronto)
Etobicoke North - ON (To)
Pickehring Scarborough - ON (To)
Scarborough Centre - ON (To)
Scarborough Agincourt - ON (To)
Scarborough Guildwood - ON (To)
Scarborough Rouge River - ON (To)
St. Pauls - ON (To)
Toronto Centre - ON (To)
Willowdale - ON (To)
York West - ON (To)
Markham - ON (GTA)
Vaughan - ON (GTA)
Ottawa South - ON
Ottawa Vanier - ON
Vancouver Quadra - BC

Fundy - NB
New Brunswick Southwest - NB
Tobique - NB
Beauce - QC
Elgin - ON
Lambton - ON
Oxford - ON
Perth - ON
Sarnia - ON
Cambridge - ON
Niagara West - ON
Wellington - ON
Barrie - ON
Durham - ON
Dufferin - ON
Simcoe-Grey - ON
York-Simcoe - ON
Carleton - ON
Haliburton - ON
Lanark - ON
Leeds - ON
Nepean - ON
Renfrew - ON
Stormont - ON
Dauphin - MB
Pirtage - MB
Provencher - MB
Cypress Hills - SK
Souris - SK
Yorkton - SK
Calgary East - AB
Calgary North Centre - AB
Calgary Nose Hill - AB
Calgary Southeast - AB
Calgary Southwest - AB
Edmonton-Beaumont - AB
Edmonton-Leduc - AB
Edmonton-St.Albert - AB
Edmonton-Sherwood Park - AB
Edmonton-Spruce Grove - AB
Athabasca - AB
Crowfoot - AB
Lethbridge - AB
Macleod - AB
Medicine Hat - AB
Peace River - AB
Red Deer - AB
Vegerville - AB
Westlock - AB
Wetaskiwin - AB
Wild Rose - AB
Yellowhead - AB
Abbotsford - BC
Langley - BC
Port Moody - BC
Chilliwack - BC
Kootenay - BC
Okanagan-Coquihalla - BC
Prince George-Peace River - BC

New feature

We are experimenting on adding a new "read more" feature to the blog Looks like it works.


As recently reported by fellow projection blog, Three Hundred Eight, it is possible to take recent polls and show maximum and minimum levels of support. We've decided to take that one step further and go for broke, by expanding this and throwing it into the ElectoMatic.

First, we start with the Green Party. If every other party had their worst election projectable at this time, the Greens would walk away with 14 seats and 18.3% of the vote. This is, of course, a radical extreme, but still worth discussing. Which 14 ridings would they win? Central Nova, Fredericton, Owen Sound, Guelph, Brandon-Souris, Winnipeg Centre, and 8 seat from BC; Vancouver Centre, Kelowna, Nanaimo, the other Nanaimo, North Okanagan, Saanich, Victoria, and West Vancouver. Of course that's not going to happen unless we see some kind of unexplaniable change.

What about the Bloc, what if they maxed out? They would win a whopping 61 seats, and take over half the vote in the province. The Tories would be left with Beauce, and the Liberals would only take Hull and 12 Montreal ridings.

What if the NDP maxed out? They could displace the Bloc, but would fail to take the official opposition. They would take 66 seats. They'd gain only one seat in Newfoundland, but would sweep all 11 Nova Scotia ridings; take 19 in Ontario, 5 in Manitoba, 7 in Saskatchewan, 2 in Edmonton, and 16 in BC.

What if the Liberals maxed out, would they win a majority? Yes, with 165 seats.

And the Tories? 188 seats.

I will be using some of these numbers and our trendlines and baselines in application with riding results to project ridings that we already know at this time are "solid" for one or another party. Expect these results in the not too distant future.

The Senate, and The Election

The question on everyone's mind is how will this election change the party standings in the Senate... or rather, it should be.

Anyone with a list of Senator's birthdays, their party standings, and some math skills will know that on May 13 2011, a Liberal senator from Newfoundland will retire, and at this time, Stephen Harper, assuming he is still Prime Minister, could appoint enough Conservatives to fill the vacancies in the upper chamber to give his Conservative Party a majority. What most don't know is that a far more important date is January 2nd 2010. On this date, Jerry Grafstein, Liberal Senator for Ontario will retire. This will be the point in time where the Liberals will lose their majority in the Senate. More importantly, should Harper invoke the so-called "Mulroney Senate rule" and appoint 8 extra Senators, this is also the date when the Conservatives could count on a majority of their own. With Senate Reform being an issue for the government, we could concievabally see the Senate stacked in this way on such a date and have it quickly pass a Senate Reform bill.

Some wonder what the current party standings are in the Senate. I've outlined that below.

Lib - 53
CPC - 46
Ind - 6

CPC - 2
Lib - 1

CPC - 4
Lib - 2

Lib - 4
CPC - 1
Ind - 1

CPC - 3
Lib - 3

CPC - 3
Lib - 3

Lib - 11
CPC - 10
Ind - 3

Lib - 12
CPC - 10
Ind - 2

Lib - 6
CPC - 4

CPC - 6
Lib - 4

Lib - 3
CPC - 1

Lib - 4
CPC - 2

Note that 2 of the Independent Senators sit as "Progressive Conservatives". One was appointed by Joe Clark, while the other was appointed by Paul Martin. One of the Independent Senators is a former Liberal who is also now a former Conservative. The other three lean Liberal

Between now and January 2 2010, 1 Liberal from NL, 1 Ind from QC, and 2 Lib from ON will retire. Between then and May 13 2011, we add another Lib from ON, a Lib from QC, a CPC from QC, and a Lib from NL.