Sunday, April 26, 2009

Nova Scotia election 2009

We are perhaps only a week away from an Election call in Nova Scotia. We do not expect many polls, and hence, will not be able to do an official projection, but we still are projecting an NDP government, with the only question being if it is a Majority, or a Minority with Liberal support.

BC Election

We've been able to add baselines and trendlines to our BC election projection. The trendline is very heavy on the NDP - it's dragging it down. The NDP is also suffering from a bad baseline (They tend to finish second, only 3 times have they won) and seem to have lost the debate, and are losing momentum, if not going outright backwards after a lackluster campaign. Currently we need more polls to really re-weight things in a serious manner, but based on our trend and base lines we have updated our projection:

BCL - 58
NDP - 27

This NDP weakness has put the greens in serious striking distance in Powell River, Saanich North, and Esquimalt; the former two on historic strength, and the latter as it is the leader's riding (always to consider). The problem is that the first two were historically strong because of strong candidates (leader and deputy leader) and weather that will carry over is unknown. The fact remains, however, that if the NDP continues to slump, the Greens may end up with an MLA. Other ridings to watch for the Greens are Vancouver West End and West Vancouver (both of them)