Thursday, December 31, 2009

My personal thoughts


So Harper has prorogued Parliament. Is he running away from the opposition? You are damn right he is. I may have voted for him in 2006, but I certainly did not in 2008. He's done many things to make me, 'cross', lets say.

Harper plans to appoint at least 5 new Senators and get some form of Senate Reform though the Senate at least. I don't know if he can pass it though the house, but there are good chances he can, somehow.

While I disagree with many of the things he's done, I do see, from my own numbers, that he is headed towards a Majority. So, what do I think of that?

I think it's just fine.

Why? Is Harper not a threat to Democracy?

Perhaps he is, but chances are he's not. People said the same thing about Chretien (read "The Friendly Dictator") and Mulroney, and Trudeau, and just about any other PM with a Majority. I really don't think Harper is 'evil' at heart, or that he would pass a bill ending Democracy. Come on, that is ridiculous. He will do, as every PM, Liberal or Tory, has done, and use his powers to unfairly block things bad for his polling numbers. He will take advantage of power and use it to boost his own party. This is not shocking news, the Liberals and PC Party are masters at this, even the NDP in BC dabbled in the practice. One reason why many people do find it shocking is Harper's Reform roots. That's gone now, clearly, and what once appeared (in 2003) to be a Reform takeover of the PC Party, has come out (in 2009) to be just the opposite. Harper was never a small r reformer, he's always been a small c conservative, and now he's a big C Conservative too.

I don't consider myself to be either a Conservative or a conservative. I do like to think of myself as a reformer (small r) and a liberal (small l) and a Green (big G). I do, however, know history. I also know that stability is important. Having 4 more years of a Harper minority and the instability it brings will hurt Canada far more than having 4 years of a Harper majority. A Harper Majority puts the country on a singular and clear path, giving him and his men control over the levers for long enough to implement policy, and see it though. Even if it's not policy I agree with, I do think that it should be given a fair shot to succeed or fail on it's own merits. If it fails, any good government would abandon it, and any bad government will be voted out of office. If it's good policy, than I will be surprised.

Regardless, my point is that 4 years with Dictator Harper is not going to destroy Canada, despite the rhetoric, and perhaps its time to just "get it over with" so that we can watch him fail, and return to another decade of competent Liberal governance, with a new leader who can actually inspire people for a change.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Parliament Prorogued.


Until the start of March.
I declare now that we will try our best to have a real website up and running by the time Parliament resumed. Until then we may see reduced posting levels here. I will, however, over the next few days do a final09/first10 projection using recent polling numbers.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Monday, December 28, 2009

End of the year


This will be a shorter post. It is the end of 2009, so where do we stand? The answer is that we are in a very similar place to where we were at the end of 2008. The only real differences are in the Liberal Party.

Dion is gone and Iggy has taken his place. While they shared similar polling numbers, Dion was tested by the electorate while Iggy has not yet been. When the 2008 campaign started, polls had said we could expect a 2006 like result, but Dion's fumbles lead us to something different. Iggy could well do better, or worse. He is the only real change on the political landscape.

The only other changes of note are economic. Harper managed to maintain a lead throughout most of the year despite a severe recession. With a bounce back expected, he could well see his poll numbers rise.

Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, December 20, 2009

The next election


The question everyone comes here to find out is what will happen in the next election.

The answer, as far as we can tell, is that Stephen Harper will win a majority.

Over the past year, Canadians have become more comfortable with the idea for a Harper majority, even if the Tories continue to make mistakes (so would the Liberals)

Ignatieff did catch the public's imagination for quite a while, but after he dropped off the radar, the idea of Harper winning a majority now seems almost inevitable.

If Harper is going to win why is he currently not polling at majority levels? The answer is that Canadians are still looking for another answer. People are not paying attention to the polls right now, they are buying x-mas presents for their children. When an election starts and people focus in, they will see how close Harper is (always within 15 seats) they will realize that he will win no matter what, and that they 'might as well just' give him a majority.

Of course, things can change, but at this moment, Harper looks set to win a majority in the coming spring or fall election.

So what does this mean? Well for one thing it is great news for Harper. It is bad news for those who are currently in a good position to be elected as Tory Leader (and lets face it, at this point that list is very short. Prentice, Flaherty, Kenney, and that's about it) but it is good news for the other possibilities who may be in a better position to challenge in 4 years; MacKay, and Day are two possibilities. Bernard Lord comes to mind, even Jean Charest if he can wiggle out of the Premier's office before his party loses to the PQ. With 4 years of good service in cabinet, Bernier, Barid, Van Loan, and Cannon all could make a solid run.

This is likely good news for the Bloc, as Harper would be much easier to skewer than Ignatieff would be, or Harper's replacement should he dare win yet another minority. The NDP also benefits as the country will move further away from how they want it to be, giving them more ammo in the following election. Both parties will also be free to pick a new leader, which they both likely will do in a few years regardless.

For the Liberals this can be a good thing. It gives them an excuse to sit down and take the party apart before putting it back together again. It is bad news for Ignatieff, who will be out, and also for the current "old guard" but great news for people like Justin Trudeau. Trudeau is currently "too young" to be a realistic contender for the leadership in these difficult times, but facing a Harper Majority, there is a good chance the Liberal Party will be willing to 'take a chance on a Trudeau' again and give him a good 2-3 years as opposition leader without the risk of an election.

Lastly, this is good news for Canada as a whole. Minority parliaments, while useful, often serve to only amplify the divisions that exist in this country. Whatever the Tories do while in office, it will be consistent to a single ideology. Rather than sitting and spinning our wheels, we will start moving somewhere. Weather that is a place Canadians want to go, however, is another question for another time.

Sorry, no extra data today!

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

More updates


Updates on various items.

Quick update on the Senate, just to note, if Harper pulled the "Mulroney 8 senators thing" he would have a Majority instantly.

In the provinces.

In Nova Scotia, and Manitoba, the NDP government continues to lead the polls.
In Prince Edward Island, the Liberal government continues to lead.
In Saskatchewan and Newfoundland, the Tories continue to lead, though in Saskatchewan they call their Tories the "Saskatchewan Party"
When averaged out, the following provinces are currently horse-races.
BC, between the Liberals and the NDP
Alberta, between the PC Party and the Alliance
Ontario and New Brunswick, between the Liberals and the PC Party
Quebec, between the Liberals and the PQ

Sorry, no extra data today!

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Senate Update


As of this moment, in the Senate we have...

Lib - 50
Con - 46
Oth - 5
Vac - 4

Which means that if Harper were to appoint new Senators, that the Tories would have the same number of Senators as the Liberals. 2011 is still the date for the Tories to gain a majority in the chamber.

The "Other" column includes Independents, and "Progressive Conservatives" who are effective Independents.

Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, December 13, 2009



A quick review on the situation in Alberta. Everyone is buzzing about a new poll showing the Alliance in first place. I ran the numbers though my mini Alberta ElectoMatic, and got the following results:

WAP - 47
ALP - 22
PC - 10
NDP - 4

Now I caution, that this is a single-poll projection, and hence, should be taken with a grain of salt.

However, since October, we've had 4 polls; so lets run them though the matrix to get a much more solid projection.

PC - 39 - 35.5%
WAP - 24 - 30.7%
ALP - 16 - 23.2%
NDP - 4 - 10.5%

So why is the Alliance doing so "bad"? Same reason the PC Party does "bad" in our single-poll projection. Their vote is too spread out. The single poll does go out of it's way to note the Alliance is leading in all rural areas plus the cities. What this will translate to on the ground is many strong second places. In order to win, the party needs to solidify its vote, or, just plain get more votes.

You may also notice that comments are now moderated. This is due to a recent spam attack.

Sorry, no extra data today!

Friday, December 11, 2009

Moving to a website, eventually


I have some good news and some bad news.

I've decided to reveal the "big news" - that we will be moving niXtuff to a real .com website. The bad news is that GoDaddy, PayPal, and my bank do not seem to get along well. I do not have a credit card and due to that it may be impossible for me to get a website. I am working on this, however, and will let you all know more when I know more.

Sorry, no extra data today!

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Please, call me Teddy


Along with the news from yesterday, a request. While my real name is Nick J Boragina, online, people know me as "Teddy". Hence, please refer to me as such.

Also, on the update front, with few polls showing little change, our projection remains unchanged.
The Tories remain between 140-150
The Liberals remain between 80-90
The Bloc remains between 45-50
and the NDP remains between 30-35

A province-by-province update will come out later this week.

Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, December 6, 2009

Huge news!


Sometime over the new few weeks I will have a huge announcement to make with regards to niXtuff. I hope to be able to do so tomorrow, but may not have everything ready by then.

I cannot wait to let everyone in on what's coming!

Sorry, no extra data today!

Thursday, December 3, 2009



Quick update before we get back to full speed.

CPC - 144
Lib - 89
BQ - 46
NDP - 29

No commentary.

Sorry, no extra data today!