Sunday, October 11, 2009

Alberta Polls


A recent poll was taken of provincial parties in Alberta, asking which party people would vote for if an election was held today. Here were the results:

Progressive Conservative: 38.4%
Wildrose Alliance: 21.5%
Alberta Liberal: 20.5%
NDP: 10.7%
Other: 8.5%

But what would all this mean as seats? Here is a rough translation:

PC - 64
Lib - 9
WAP - 6
NDP - 4

Why would be PC Party remain so strong?
Well, for one thing, the decrease in the PC vote from the election to today (about 75%) is the same as the decrease in the Liberal vote. That means in any one-on-one contest between the two parties, the winner last time should win this time. The NDP is up, but their results last time were too spread out to win more than 4 seats. The Wildrose Alliance, meanwhile, is up 3 fold. Despite that, there are only 6 ridings I could find where the Alliance result last time could beat the PC result, even with a 3x inflation, and even with the Tories fighting at 3/4th strength. This should, however, put the WAP in second place in a clear majority of ridings all across the province, with the exception of Edmonton and parts of Calgary.

Sorry, no extra data today!