Sunday, April 12, 2009

Info on the provinces

Province by Province:

Newfoundland is not expecting an election until 2011. There is no sign either the Liberals or NDP could knock off the Tories, who are, at this time, expected to win another large majority.

Prince Edward Island is also not expecting an election until 2011, and as above, the government is expected to retain it's majority.

New Brunswick is likely to see an election in 2010 or early 2011, and as with the above, the government is expected to win, however by a much smaller margin (though still a majority)

The Yukon could have an election by next year. Due to the political nature of the territory, any predictions would be closer to 'guesses' as personality plays a big role. Any party could potentially win, but chances are if the Government goes down it will be to the Liberals and not the NDP. If I had to 'guess' I'd put my money on a Liberal minority.

Quebec will not have an election until 2012 or 2013. Any 'predictions' this far out would also be 'guesses'. My 'guess' is a PQ majority.

Manitoba will be set for an election in 2011 or even 2012. The NDP will by this point be seen as a "tired and old" government and could well lose to the PC Party, however the current government is still popular, and it can expected to be a close race. My money is on the NDP.

Saskatchewan will also be due for an election around 2011. There is a history in this province of electing governments to a minimum of two terms, and unless the government manages to botch it, I expect this to continue.

Alberta's next election will happen around 2012. The PC Party can, again, be expected to cruise to victory with a large majority. I do, however, expect the Liberals to win a 'surprisingly' large number of seats, especially in Calgary, and potentially set themselves up for a win in 2016.

Ontario is a more interesting case. For decades it elected PC governments, mostly to majorities but some minorities, and the PC Party governed in a moderate "Red Tory" style. Since the mid 80's, however, this has not been the case. John Tory should have won the last Ontario election, but his poor campaigning lost it for him. Now the Ontario PC Party has shifted to the right yet again, while Ontarians have not indicated that they want this. There is a very good likelihood that this will push the Liberals to a third victory, one that will outlast McGunity (who is a very weak premier) If current trends continue, and nothing suggests they will not, the Ontario Liberals will become the new dynasty. This, coupled with Federal success in the provinces, will allow Ontario to take on the role abandon by Quebec in the 80's, and become the Liberal party's new "bedrock" of support.

Finally we come to the two provinces with elections coming up.

Nova Scotia has a potential for an election this spring. The Liberals are trigger happy as polls show them as the #2 party. The NDP, while quiet, would also be happy as they have been polling over 35% since the last election and would likely win a very strong minority or even a weak majority in any election. Current trends point towards a weak majority for the NDP, as voters in the province are becoming more comfortable with the idea of an NDP government (IE, it does not scare them anymore) and are likely to jump on the bandwagon and vote for the winner. The Liberals meanwhile could well supplant the PC Party as the second most popular party in the province, and become the official opposition. Should this happen, however, it will likely mean that minority governments are still in the future for this province.

BC has an election scheduled to take place in exactly one month. While individual polls have jumped about, the general trend has been stagnant since the middle of the last election. This is also a general trend that was, generally, true for most of BC's modern history. In short; the governing party is a free-market coalition of all sorts that tends to win 60% of the seats, while the main opposition, socialist in nature, wins the other 40%. This would gives us numbers of 51 and 34, and I still expect the final result to be close to this, though likely with a few more seat for the NDP.

New Projection

We have updated our trendlines and baselines and have a new projection that is as follows:

Lib - 121
CPC - 113
BQ - 49
NDP - 25

Note that we have not included the Nanos "Poll" mentioned earlier. Rather this update is based on, to put it in a simple way, "pulling" the data forward. We effectively have re-weighted polls based on date, thereby "pulling" the matrix forward in time; This has also caused it to slide further up our trendlines, and be further balanced with the baselines.

What's important is where the parties stand in the provinces. Specifically, Ontario and Quebec.

CPC - 66
Lib - 15
NDP - 14

Lib - 21
CPC - 7
NDP - 4

BQ - 49 (Trendlines favour a seat target around 48-51)
Lib - 21
CPC - 5

Lib - 64
CPC - 35
NDP - 7

These numbers are closer to the CPC's 2006 targets in Ontario. Here is a map of what this might look like according to our riding by riding numbers:

New "Poll"

Nanos put out a poll - Click Here - that identifies "second place" support for the parties. It is an interesting read for that alone; However at the bottom it lists the number of answers for the first question - which party do you support. The national breakdown is as follows:

Lib - 36%
CPC - 32%
NDP - 13%
BQ - 10%
Grn - 8%

Compare this to the most recent poll form Strategic Counsel:

Lib - 34%
CPC - 32%
NDP - 15%
BQ - 10%
Grn - 9%

And the last poll from Nanos, 3 weeks ago:

Lib - 36%
CPC - 33%
NDP - 13%
BQ - 10%
Grn - 8%

It seems that the plateau continues.