Sunday, April 12, 2009

New Projection

We have updated our trendlines and baselines and have a new projection that is as follows:

Lib - 121
CPC - 113
BQ - 49
NDP - 25

Note that we have not included the Nanos "Poll" mentioned earlier. Rather this update is based on, to put it in a simple way, "pulling" the data forward. We effectively have re-weighted polls based on date, thereby "pulling" the matrix forward in time; This has also caused it to slide further up our trendlines, and be further balanced with the baselines.

What's important is where the parties stand in the provinces. Specifically, Ontario and Quebec.

CPC - 66
Lib - 15
NDP - 14

Lib - 21
CPC - 7
NDP - 4

BQ - 49 (Trendlines favour a seat target around 48-51)
Lib - 21
CPC - 5

Lib - 64
CPC - 35
NDP - 7

These numbers are closer to the CPC's 2006 targets in Ontario. Here is a map of what this might look like according to our riding by riding numbers:

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