Sunday, September 27, 2009


<- More elections

Now that counting is near done, we can calculate more reliable results.

In the state of Schleswig-Holstein

30 - CDU
13 - FDP

22 - SPD
11 - GRN
5 - LNK
4 - SSW (Danish Minority Party)

In Brandenburg, the Premier has a choice of coalitions
31 - SPD
19 - CDU

26 - LNK
7 - FDP
5 - GRN


31 - SPD
26 - LNK

19 - CDU
7 - FDP
5 - GRN

Federally, the results are as follows

239 - CDU/CSU
93 - FDP

147 - SDP
76 - LNK
68 - GRN

more elections below the fold.

And past elections as follows:

Saxony Anhalt (2006)
40 - CDU
24 - SDP
64 - GOV

24 - LNK
7 - FDP
31 - OPP

Saxony (2009)
58 - CDU
14 - FDP
72 - GOV

29 - LNK
14 - SDP
9 - GRN
8 - NPD (This is a neo-nazi party)
60 - OPP

Rhineland-Palatine (2006)
53 - SDP

38 - CDU
10 - FDP
48 - OPP

North Rhine-Westphalia (2005)
89 - CDU
12 - FDP
101 - GOV

74 - SDP
12 - GRN
86 - OPP

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (2006)
23 - SDP
22 - CDU
45 - GOV

13 - LNK
7 - FDP
6 - NPD
26 - OPP

Lower Saxony (2008)
68 - CDU
13 - FDP
81 - GOV

48 - SPD
12 - GRN
11 - LNK
71 - OPP

Hesse (2009)
46 - CDU
20 - FDP
66 - GOV

29 - SDP
17 - GRN
6 - LNK
42 - OPP

Hamburg (2008)
56 - CDU
12 - GRN
68 - GOV (first CDU-GRN alliance in a state, ever)

45 - SDP
8- LNK
53 - OPP

Bremen (2007)
33 - SDP
14 - GRN
47 - GOV

23 - CDU
7 - LNK
5 - FDP
1 - DVU (also a neo-nazi party)
36 - OPP

Berlin (2006)
53 - SDP
23 - LNK
76 - GOV

37 - CDU
23 - GRN
13 - FDP
73 - OPP

Bavaria (2008)
92 - CSU
16 - FDP
108 - GOV

39 - SDP
21 - FW ("Free Voters")
19 - GRN
79 - OPP

Baden-Wurttemberg (2006)
69 - CDU
15 - FDP
84 - GOV

38 - SDP
17 - GRN
55 - OPP

Saarland (2009)
(note, no government has been worked out just yet)
19 - CDU
13 - SDP
11 - LNK
5 - FDP
3 - GRN

Thuringia (2009)
(note, no government has been worked out just yet)
30 - CDU
27 - LNK
18 - SDP
7 - FDP
6 - GRN

More on Germany


I've done the math from some of the exit polls. Here are the results:

94 FDP

144 SDP
80 LNK
67 GRN

The CDU is Germany's Conservative Party. The CSU is their allied party, the CSU operates only in the German state of Bavaria, while the CDU operates everywhere else.

The FDP is the German Liberal Party. These are 'European Liberals' and we might think of them as Libertarians over in this part of the world.

The SDP is Germany's main left-wing party, they are Social Democrats by name and practice. The party is generally moderate.

GRN is Germany's Greens. This is where the Green movement started, and Germany is home to one of the world's strongest Green Parties. The Greens in Germany are very much on the left, they are anti-war, and not offended by people suggesting they are socialist.

LNK, or Die Linke (The Link) is perhaps the most interesting party. They are the direct successors to the Communist Party of East Germany. The party is most successful in the former East German states, but has been able to draw in some popular former West German leaders, such as Oskar Lafontaine, a former leader of the SDP in West Germany, who is now co-leader of Die Linke.

Sorry, no extra data today!

Angela Merkel re-elected, exit polls


(very) early reports are that German Chancellor Merkel has finally got the Majority she wanted. Current results show Merkel's Conservative Alliance (CDU+CSU) being able to form a Coalition with the right-of-centre FDP (Liberals). This coalition would have a majority of about 4 seats, giving them 8 seats more than the combined opposition. (Social Democrats, Greens, and Socialists)

More coverage tonight.

Watch the results once they begin to trickle in:

Sorry, no extra data today!


<- Click to read more about me

There are a few others who run projection blogs. Some of them hide who they are and which parties they support. Others are out in the open about everything, and rely on their methods to be true regardless of their personal views. I am of the latter.

So what would I like out of the election? I suppose my dream scenario would be a Liberal government propped up by the Green Party in an official coalition. Of course, that's not going to happen, at least not this time. My #2 preference would be for a Liberal Majority. My #3 preference, however, is actually for a Conservative Majority. I really think we need to end this decide-bill-by-bill kind of minority governance that could see the government fall at any moment. To that end, I would prefer a coalition to a minority, hence I suppose my #4 option would be for a Liberal-NDP Coalition government.

So, how have I voted?

In the 2008 federal election, I voted for the Green Party.
In the 2007 provincial election, I voted for the Ontario PC Party.
In the 2006 municipal election, I voted for myself - a "Pro-Transit, Right of Centre" candidate
In the 2006 federal election, I voted for the Conservative Party.
In the 2004 federal election, I voted for the Liberal Party.
In the 2003 provincial election, I voted for myself - in the PEI NDP.

As you can see, I've never voted for the same party twice (though I did vote for the right on multiple occasions)

In the coming election, I plan to vote Green, partly because the Liberals are going to win my riding no matter what.

So, where do I stand on the issues?
I want Senate Reform. On Justice and Security issues I'm firmly on the right. On social issues, I'm firmly on the left. I don't have a problem with government, or government spending, but also think taxes should be fair for people of all incomes. I often say that I want "Low taxes on married gay couples" and challenge someone to find a party that wants that too. Due to my unique mix of issues, I find it difficult to find a single party that I can get behind.

So, are my projections biased in some way? I'd like to hope not. My emotions, however, are. For much of the 2008 election I was torn between the Tories and the Greens. Seeing the Tories edge towards a majority, and then fall back from it, had an effect on me, and is one of the reasons my projections dropped off during that period. When you build your own system, and trust it, and it tells you things you don't want to hear, you can get discouraged. I also found it difficult to guesstimate for certain ridings. How powerful, for example, was Elizabeth May, and how many votes would she get? Again, I think my emotions got the better of me, as I clearly over-estimated this. I'd like to think I've learned from my mistakes, however. I win by being right. The closer I get to being 100% accurate, the better a name and reputation I build for niXtuff, and the more attention people will pay to me in the future; which itself leads to more pressure to be accurate, so on and so forth. My goal is to build a program that can, with few inputs, accurately project the entire election.

More about me below the fold.

December 19 1984 - Born at Scarborough General Hospital, Toronto, Ontario.
1985 - Mother and Father, who never married, split. I move with my mother to live with her parents.
1992 - My mother meets my step dad
1993 - My mom and I move in with my step dad, he lives in Mississauga, Ontario.
1995 - Our family, including my mother's parents, move to Summerside PEI
2002 - Started courses at the University of Prince Edward Island
2003 - Grandparents bought me a car
2004 - Crashed my car
2005 - Left University. I realized I was not ready at the time. Moved to Toronto and took up a job as a Security Guard
2006 - Attempted a private projection of the election. Projected 10 Tories from Quebec when no one else dare projected more than 6. I was spot on.
2007 - Started niXtuff, originally as a public transit blog with occasional political news. That reversed itself, and I finally dropped all transit news altogether.