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There are a few others who run projection blogs. Some of them hide who they are and which parties they support. Others are out in the open about everything, and rely on their methods to be true regardless of their personal views. I am of the latter.
So what would I like out of the election? I suppose my dream scenario would be a Liberal government propped up by the Green Party in an official coalition. Of course, that's not going to happen, at least not this time. My #2 preference would be for a Liberal Majority. My #3 preference, however, is actually for a Conservative Majority. I really think we need to end this decide-bill-by-bill kind of minority governance that could see the government fall at any moment. To that end, I would prefer a coalition to a minority, hence I suppose my #4 option would be for a Liberal-NDP Coalition government.
So, how have I voted?
In the 2008 federal election, I voted for the Green Party.
In the 2007 provincial election, I voted for the Ontario PC Party.
In the 2006 municipal election, I voted for myself - a "Pro-Transit, Right of Centre" candidate
In the 2006 federal election, I voted for the Conservative Party.
In the 2004 federal election, I voted for the Liberal Party.
In the 2003 provincial election, I voted for myself - in the PEI NDP.
As you can see, I've never voted for the same party twice (though I did vote for the right on multiple occasions)
In the coming election, I plan to vote Green, partly because the Liberals are going to win my riding no matter what.
So, where do I stand on the issues?
I want Senate Reform. On Justice and Security issues I'm firmly on the right. On social issues, I'm firmly on the left. I don't have a problem with government, or government spending, but also think taxes should be fair for people of all incomes. I often say that I want "Low taxes on married gay couples" and challenge someone to find a party that wants that too. Due to my unique mix of issues, I find it difficult to find a single party that I can get behind.
So, are my projections biased in some way? I'd like to hope not. My emotions, however, are. For much of the 2008 election I was torn between the Tories and the Greens. Seeing the Tories edge towards a majority, and then fall back from it, had an effect on me, and is one of the reasons my projections dropped off during that period. When you build your own system, and trust it, and it tells you things you don't want to hear, you can get discouraged. I also found it difficult to guesstimate for certain ridings. How powerful, for example, was Elizabeth May, and how many votes would she get? Again, I think my emotions got the better of me, as I clearly over-estimated this. I'd like to think I've learned from my mistakes, however. I win by being right. The closer I get to being 100% accurate, the better a name and reputation I build for niXtuff, and the more attention people will pay to me in the future; which itself leads to more pressure to be accurate, so on and so forth. My goal is to build a program that can, with few inputs, accurately project the entire election.
More about me below the fold.
December 19 1984 - Born at Scarborough General Hospital, Toronto, Ontario.
1985 - Mother and Father, who never married, split. I move with my mother to live with her parents.
1992 - My mother meets my step dad
1993 - My mom and I move in with my step dad, he lives in Mississauga, Ontario.
1995 - Our family, including my mother's parents, move to Summerside PEI
2002 - Started courses at the University of Prince Edward Island
2003 - Grandparents bought me a car
2004 - Crashed my car
2005 - Left University. I realized I was not ready at the time. Moved to Toronto and took up a job as a Security Guard
2006 - Attempted a private projection of the election. Projected 10 Tories from Quebec when no one else dare projected more than 6. I was spot on.
2007 - Started niXtuff, originally as a public transit blog with occasional political news. That reversed itself, and I finally dropped all transit news altogether.