Friday, September 12, 2008

Nanos Polling

We have now been able to add Nanos Polling to our projections. The only noticeable change is in Ontario.

Small update

I've taken Tory "Star" Candidate, Gail Shea, and NDP "Star" Candidate, Jack Harris, into more account and have updated my projection from the Atlantic provinces.


It’s the end of the first week of the election campaign, and something that was unthinkable only a week ago has happened, at least according to our projections. The Tories are set to win a Majority Government.

Beyond this (which should be coming more clear for the poll-watchers) we have other things we are keeping our eye on.

Gilles Duceppe might be in trouble in his own riding, especially if voters start to associate him with the Bloc's slide. Our numbers put the NDP 5 points behind the Bloc leader in his own riding.

The NDP walks away with 3 seats from Quebec. Outremont and Hull (which they win purely on the numbers, despite having two star candidates here) as well as Westmount.

Ignatieff is knocked out of his own seat as the Tories pick up their first Toronto seat. This is by a wide margin.

The Liberals are shut out of Manitoba

The Tories are shut out of Nova Scotia

On the island of Montreal, the ridings of Lac-Saint-Louis and Peirrefonds-Dollard are threatening to go Tory blue.

The Tories are poised to win 23 seats in Quebec. The numbers alone show them winning 21, with Shefford and Gatineau being a 3-way race. We believe that enough Liberals will vote Tory in election day to defeat the Bloc.

Our polling “work sheet” and more riding-by-riding projections will be put up on our forum shortly.

Adjustment to Polls

As of today, we feel that we now have enough polls that have been published in September to drop our older polls from August. This will allow us to drop the polls which did not account for all 5 parties (thereby making our poll projections add up to more than 100%). We will be adopting a new methodology where we do not accept polls that do not show the result for all 5 parties. It appears as though Environics, Ekos, the Strategic Council, and Nanos (former SES) will be taking regular polls throughout the election, so we do not expect the missing of one or two polls to be a problem as we fully expect 40-60 polls during the election.