Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Liberals closing in on government

CPC - 123
Lib - 93
BQ - 50
NDP - 40
IND - 2

CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

British Columbia
CPC - 26
NDP - 9
Lib - 1

CPC - 28

CPC - 20
Lib - 4
NDP - 4

Lib - 52
CPC - 34
NDP - 20

BQ - 50
Lib - 17
CPC - 6
NDP - 1
IND - 1

Lib - 18
CPC - 8 (May is edging back on MacKay)
NDP - 5
IND - 1

* Note that we uurge caution with these daily-tracking numbers. Due to our three-firm average, these numbers can swing wildly. These numbers will be factored into our averages for Friday, which will be more robust. Saturday there will be no projections as we will be working towards our final projections expected to be posted by Sunday at Noon. This will include a riding by riding list, from east to west.

Nanos and the Polls

We think we've discovered why Nanos' numbers are so different from the other polling firms. It appears Nanos asks the voter "Who are you voting for?" and not "Will you be voting Green, Liberal, Conservative..." etc. This would explain why the Green and Liberal numbers are so very different. It is highly likely that many people who blurt out Liberal to one pollster, would say "Green" to another pollster if presented with that option.

What impact this has on the final results remains to be seen. There is a chance that those who blurt out Liberal will indeed vote that way, as they do not consider the Greens to be a "real" option. There is also the chance that when they get into the voting booth and see "Green Party" on the ballot, that they may vote that way.

We are reserving judgment on the issue and will continue to use our new three-firm poll average. New numbers will be out shortly.