Sunday, June 28, 2009

New Information

Much like the other major national projection sites, and Three Hundred Eight, we plan to maintain a "update schedule" from here on in. We will update our projection each Thursday. The only exception to this will be if polls come out on Fridays and/or over the Weekend, in which case (given there is more than one) we will update on Monday, and if needed, ditto our projection on Thrusday.

Tories hold on to first

No commentary

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Tories vault into first place

There really is not much to say, beyond the shocking rise of the Tories. Nearly the entire rise comes from a single province - Ontario - where the Liberals have gone from a 10 point lead to being neck and neck with Harper's Conservatives. It remains to be seen if any of this will 'stick' by the end of the summer.

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Upcoming elections

Beyond the federal election we expect this fall (November 9th, or 16th) we also are tracking possible provincial elections.

New Brunswick went to the polls in 2006. They have since set fixed election dates, and will go again on 2010, Sep 27th to be exact. The PC's have a very good chance at taking the province back.

PEI went in the spring of 2007. PEI however has a recent history of going every 3.5 years, if they keep up with this, the fall of 2010 is possible, however if poll numbers sag, 2011 or even 2012 is possible. Currently, the Liberals look very strong.

The NWT may go in the next few years, but have no political parties, which sadly, makes it hard to track.

Newfoundland now has fixed election dates and will go in the fall of 2011. There is no evidence to suggest it will be anything but another blow out for the Tories.

Manitoba went in the spring of 2007, meaning the next election could be 'expected' in the spring of 2011. Gary Doer has been leader since forever (well, to be technically correct, since the early 1990s) There will likely be pressure on him to resign. The difficulty is that if he resigns any later than this fall, the new Premier may not have time to establish himself before the election. Doer has also shown no signs he intends to leave and might fight another election. If he stays I expect an election earlier than later, and if he goes the opposite, perhaps the fall of 2011.

Saskatchewan went in the fall of 2007 and could be expected to go in the fall of 2011. The Saskatchewan party won here, but due to vote distribution in the province, their seat margin does not match their vote margin in a way it normally would in another province. This could indicate that they might go again as early as the fall of 2010 or spring of 2011 if they are leading in the polls.

That means it will be a quiet summer. No minority governments in any province, and no federal election until November. You can, however, trust niXtuff to keep it's eyes open for any developments.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Projection Update

Now that we have an election date nearly set in stone (November 9th) it is easier for me to apply a trendline - which I've done. This is the results when I add in the recent polls to the matrix

Lib - 129
CPC - 104
BQ - 48
NDP - 27

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

How to contact us

I have three e-mails I use that you can use to contact me, all through hotmail.


Add what you need at the end of those, and you'r off.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Federal projection update

We expect an election call before the end of this month.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

NS Election results

In map form

NS 2009

Looks like the NDP will not gain as many seats as we had projected. Our map is still pretty close. Nova Scotia ridings are so small that our mathematical projections cannot properly account for those who vote locally - this is why we did not make an official projection.

Nova Scotia, final post

This is our final, yet still unofficial, projection. It is just a reposting of two earlier posts.

(edit, I've updated these numbers)
NDP 32-48
Lib 3-12
PC 1-8

Monday, June 8, 2009

More polls for the Poll Bank

Atlantic Polls

Source: CRA

Lib - 57%
PC - 32%
ND - 7%
Grn - 4%

Lib - 41%
PC - 40%
NDP - 16%
Grn - 3%

PC - 72%
Lib - 19%
NDP - 8%

Sunday, June 7, 2009

Nova Scotia 2009

Our unofficial projection stands as follows:

NDP 32-43
Lib 6-12
PC 3-8

Friday, June 5, 2009

Nova Scotia - blowout part 2

A few days ago, I asked "What if it's a blowout". Quite simply, it appears it will be. Our map posted earlier is our "projection"

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Federal Projection Update

Lib - 123
CPC - 111
BQ - 44
NDP - 30

No Commentary

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Nova Scotia. What if it's a blowout?

What would it look like if the NDP had a blow-out?

Something like this:

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

New Ekos Poll

A new Ekos poll is out, claiming to be the largest poll ever. We have our doubts, for one this poll appears to have been taken over a very long period of time. During the federal election with it's rolling polls, this is commonplace, but the polling companies do not add up all these numbers and claim it is really just one gigantic poll.

Ekos also has problems. Not only as they the firm that made the famous October 1987 poll with the NDP in first place nationally, but they also more recently and famously recorded the Canadian Alliance at it's lowest level ever (6%) nationally, as well as it's highest level ever (32%) just a year earlier. They had the Liberals over 65% at one point, and as far as I know, hold the record for both the high and low for each political party in the country. Ekos tends to ask other questions in their polls, but there is no evidence as to what they ask first. This can matter a great deal. Take Quebec for example. The Liberals constantly outpoll Premier Jean Charest. Asking someone if they like Charest or Marois, and then asking if they are voting Liberal or PQ is not really fair. Ekos has a history of picking up on swings, but also has a history of being off the mark. We will therefore not throw caution to the wind and super-weight this single poll from a firm with a bad record. We will, however, count it seriously. And without further adieu, the results of our new matrix:

Lib - 123 - 34.08%
CPC - 110 - 32.09%
BQ - 44 - 9.30%
NDP - 31 - 16.20%
GRN - 0 - 7.33%

Lib - 21 - 41%
CPC - 7 - 32%
NDP - 5 - 22%

BQ - 44 - 35.0%
Lib - 26 - 35.0%
CPC - 5 - 14.0%

Lib - 59 - 40.5%
CPC - 36 - 34.5%
NDP - 11 - 15.0%

Prairies (central)
CPC - 20 - 47%
Lib - 4 - 23%
NDP - 4 - 23%

CPC - 27 - 58%
Lib - 1 - 21%

British Columbia
CPC - 14 - 33%
Lib - 11 - 30%
NDP - 11 - 25%

Monday, June 1, 2009

Nova Scotia 2009

A new poll puts the NDP at 44% across the province, their highest level ever. The Liberals, at 28%, Tories, at 26%, and Greens, at 2%, trail badly.

A quick count of the poll, IE a non-official estimate, is as follows:
NDP - 34
Lib - 12
PC - 6

We are now projecting a 99% certainty that the election will result in an NDP majority government.