Saturday, October 31, 2009

Provinces

<- More numbers below the fold

A little news in the provinces.
A by-election in Newfoundland has been won by a Liberal. Marshall Dean is the first new face for the Newfoundland Liberals elected in a decade.

There have been few polls in the provinces, but this also means there are a few polls in the provinces. In nearly every province, the government is due to re-elect a majority. New Brunswick, Ontario, and Quebec, however, are all very close two way races between the two main parties. We do not expect elections in any province for at least a year.


Ontario
72 - Liberal - Dalton McGunity
25 - PC - Tim Hudak
10 - NDP - Andrea Horwath
0 - Green - Frank de Jong - New leader picked Nov 15 2009 (Mike Schreiner vs None of the Above)

Quebec
67 - Liberal - Jean Charest
51 - Parti Quebecois - Pauline Marois
6 - Action Democratique - Gilles Taillon (Sylvie Roy, Leader in the Assembly)
1 - Quebec Solidarie - Amir Khadir
0 - Parti Vert - Guy Rainville

British Columbia
49 - Liberal - Gordon Campbell
35 - New Democrats - Carole James
1 - Independent - Vicki Huntington (Leans right)
0 - Green Party - Jane Sterk

Alberta
70 - PC - Ed Stelmach
9 - Liberal - David Swann
2 - New Democrats - Brian Mason
1 - Wildrose Alliance - Danielle Smith
1 - Independent - Guy Boutilier (Leans right)

Manitoba
34 - New Democrats - Greg Selinger
19 - PC - Hugh McFadyen
2 - Liberal - John Gerrard
0 - Green - James Beddome
1 - Vacant - Concordia, leans NDP

Saskatchewan
38 - Saskatchewan Party - Brad Wall
20 - New Democrats - Dwain Lingenfelter
0 - Liberals - Ryan Bater
0 - Greens - Larissa Shasko

Nova Scotia
32 - New Democrats - Darryl Dexter
11 - Liberal - Stephen McNeil
9 - PC - Karen Casey (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Greens - Ryan Watson

New Brunswick
33 - Liberal - Shawn Graham
22 - PC - David Alward
0 - New Democrats - Roger Duguay
0 - Greens - Jack MacDougall

Newfoundland and Labrador
42 - PC - Danny Williams
4 - Liberal - Yvonne Jones (Interim) New Leader picked 2009/2010
1 - New Democrats - Lorraine Micheal
1 - Vacant. Terra Nova (strong PC), date not yet set

Prince Edward Island
24 - Liberal - Robert Ghiz
3 - PC - Olive Craine (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Green Party - Sharon Labchuck
0 - New Democrats - James Rodd

Yukon
9 - Yukon Party - Dennis Fentie
5 - Liberal Party - Arthur Mitchell
2 - New Democrats -Elizabeth Hanson
2 - Independent - John Edzerza (Leans NDP) - Brad Cathers (Leans Yukon Party)

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Harper falls from Majority

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CPC - 152
Lib - 74
BQ - 49
NDP - 33

No commentary

Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Provinces

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We got it all:


Ontario
72 - Liberal - Dalton McGunity
25 - PC - Tim Hudak
10 - NDP - Andrea Horwath
0 - Green - Frank de Jong - New leader picked Nov 15 2009 (Mike Schreiner vs None of the Above)

Quebec
67 - Liberal - Jean Charest
51 - Parti Quebecois - Pauline Marois
6 - Action Democratique - Gilles Taillon (Sylvie Roy, Leader in the Assembly)
1 - Quebec Solidarie - Amir Khadir
0 - Parti Vert - Guy Rainville

British Columbia
49 - Liberal - Gordon Campbell
35 - New Democrats - Carole James
1 - Independent - Vicki Huntington (Leans right)
0 - Green Party - Jane Sterk

Alberta
70 - PC - Ed Stelmach
9 - Liberal - David Swann
2 - New Democrats - Brian Mason
1 - Wildrose Alliance - Danielle Smith
1 - Independent - Guy Boutilier (Leans right)

Manitoba
34 - New Democrats - Greg Selinger
19 - PC - Hugh McFadyen
2 - Liberal - John Gerrard
0 - Green - James Beddome
1 - Vacant - Concordia, leans NDP

Saskatchewan
38 - Saskatchewan Party - Brad Wall
20 - New Democrats - Dwain Lingenfelter
0 - Liberals - Ryan Bater
0 - Greens - Larissa Shasko

Nova Scotia
32 - New Democrats - Darryl Dexter
11 - Liberal - Stephen McNeil
9 - PC - Karen Casey (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Greens - Ryan Watson

New Brunswick
33 - Liberal - Shawn Graham
22 - PC - David Alward
0 - New Democrats - Roger Duguay
0 - Greens - Jack MacDougall

Newfoundland and Labrador
42 - PC - Danny Williams
3 - Liberal - Yvonne Jones (Interim) New Leader picked 2009/2010
1 - New Democrats - Lorraine Micheal
2 - Vacant. Terra Nova (strong PC), date not yet set, and The Straits and White Bay North (Strong PC) October 27

Prince Edward Island
24 - Liberal - Robert Ghiz
3 - PC - Olive Craine (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Green Party - Sharon Labchuck
0 - New Democrats - James Rodd

Yukon
9 - Yukon Party - Dennis Fentie
5 - Liberal Party - Arthur Mitchell
2 - New Democrats -Elizabeth Hanson
2 - Independent - John Edzerza (Leans NDP) - Brad Cathers (Leans Yukon Party)



Sorry, no extra data today!

Something New

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Wanted to give notice that I am going to create something new for everyone.

I am going to create a small table so that I can display riding by riding results easily, rather than having to copy it as in my other post showing all the votes.

The up side is that I can do all 308 ridings in a single image.
The down side is that margins of victory will not be clear.

After I create this I will attempt to update it to show the margin.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Friday, October 23, 2009

Projection Update

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CPC - 155
Lib - 74
BQ - 46
NDP - 33

No commentary


Sorry, no extra data today!

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

By popular demand, Riding by riding

<- Click here to see the full post



What you see above you recognize, this is the standard posting we make, showing the province by province results. What you might not know is that with each and every projection, our system, the ElectoMatic, projects each and every riding. I've had a request to show some of these, so I decided to show them all. Below the fold is our current riding by riding projections, based on the most recent polling data, for all 308 ridings across the country.

(click on images to zoom in if needed)
(click on post title to expand post if "read more" button is not visible)










Tories take over 2 million from taxpayers

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The Conservative Party has taken $2,602,581 from taxpayers this month.

But its no biggie the Liberals took $1,815,230

The NDP took $1,256,701, the Bloc $689,478, and the Greens $468,455.

More than that, they'll do it again in January!

Its the quarterly allowances each party gets every 4 months based on the number of votes they received in the last election. Here is the Elections Canada webpage on it
http://www.elections.ca/content.asp?section=pol&document=qua2009&dir=pol/qua&lang=e


Sorry, no extra data today!

Monday, October 19, 2009

Taillon elected leader of the ADQ

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By 2 votes if you can believe it.

The party had a pathetic 28% turnout of members for their 2-day long phone in vote. If three quarters of your own members don't even bother to vote for leader, you have a pretty big problem. If those who do vote are so divided that one person, a single person, voting for one candidate and not another could change the race, then you have another problem.

Taillon has cancer, something that became an issue earlier in the race when his opponent suggested he be unable to lead because of it. He also 'quit' the national assembly by running in a riding that the ADQ could not have won, even in the best circumstances. Why on earth he wants to lead the party is beyond me. Beyond that, a former MNA quit upon hearing the news, and another one criticized her fresh new leader. This is not what a party able to win does, even Dion did not have such sharp criticisms this early, or ever.

Dare I say that the ADQ has been seriously harmed by this entire adventure. I would not say it impossible for the party to fall to 5th place in the polls, and even remain there though a General Election. I do, however, think they might be able to hold on to a seat or two by the skin of their teeth even if such a 5th placed disaster happens.

The long story short here is that the ADQ is 'toast' for the next half decade.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, October 18, 2009

New Provincial Leaders pt2

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So what does all of this mean? Well much of it was expected. Greg Selinger was expected to win, and he is not expected to change much. The only real difference is a new face and name. Remember, though, that this government has served for 3 terms, and there is a history of long-time and popular premiers resigning and being replaced, only to have their party bomb in the following election. It's not a poor reflection on the new leader, but rather that voters grow tired of a party ofter time. Weather the Manitoba NDP is going to suffer this fate is as of yet unknown. Selinger is likely not going to suddenly take hold of the imagination of regular Manitobans, he's a known face (he was finance minister) and a his party is a known quantity. His best bet at winning the next election is to convince Manitobans that he and his party have done a good job and deserve to be re-elected. Alternatively, he can try to scare the voters away from the PC Party. This will be difficult at best as the Manitoba PC Party is one of the most moderate provincial PC parties in the country.

Smith being elected leader of the Wildrose Alliance is bigger news. Earlier in the race, citing trusted sources, there was a report that as many as 10 PC MLAs would cross the floor to sit with the Alliance if Smith won the leadership. With or without Smith, the Alliance made waves when they won a by-election in Calgary, putting former leader Paul Hinman back into the house. Hinman won election in 2005 and was the only Alliance candidate to do so, he then served as leader until yesterday. This was a clear signal that the party is not going away. Alberta has had many one-shot wonders. Parties have been known to come and go, but Hinman's win shows that the Alliance just might have some real staying power.

Lets examine what happens if the defections take place. First, this would mean the WAP now has 11 seats, more than the Liberal's 9. Hinman (presumably) would then become the new Leader of the Opposition, at least until Smith can find a seat somewhere. There is then the question of what the single independent member does. If he joins, it could make for 12 members in the Alliance, but then again he might be one of the so-called 10. Chances are, however, that not a full 10 will switch, if any at all. If 8 members defect to the WAP, they would tie with the Liberals at 9, but due to precedence, the Liberals would remain the official opposition. If 1 member defects, they would tie with the NDP, but remain in 4th place. If these threats are true, there is a good chance that the number of defectors will in fact be between 2 and 8. There is also the possibility of a passive defection. That is a member resigns his seat in a riding that the Alliance could win, allowing Smith a way into the legislature.

At this point, all we have is a hypothetical threat, and a single poll. What we do know is that the Alliance has not vanished from the Alberta landscape. What that means, however, is undefined at this time.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Saturday, October 17, 2009

New Provincial Leaders

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Breaking news (from twitter) that Danielle Smith has won the Wildrose Alliance leadership in Alberta.

Also, Greg Selinger will be the new Premier of Manitoba for the NDP

Analysis on what this means to come later tonight



Sorry, no extra data today!

Friday, October 16, 2009

Tories up in Quebec

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A number of successive polls have now shown the Tories up in quebec. This is part of the reason why the party has managed to break the 40% barrier.

CPC - 161
Lib - 74
BQ - 46
NDP - 27


Sorry, no extra data today!

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Harper still at Majority levels

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CPC - 159
Lib - 75
BQ - 48
NDP - 26

The Ekos poll we added also shows the Tories polling ahead of the Liberals and NDP, even when combined. Our official projection, however, which has a poll-average dampener, still shows a 4 point lead for the latter.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Update Schedule

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As it is more and more clear that we will not have an election within the new few weeks, I am going to pull back our update schedule. We will no longer update every day, especially when there are no polls.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Tories Clinging to Majority

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Just as Ignatieff regretted his decision not to push for an election in the spring, Harper may regret his decision not to go to the polls this fall. The Tories are now clinging to a majority by a single seat, and the trendline has stabilized. There is plenty of room for the opposition to bounce back

CPC - 155
Lib - 78
BQ - 48
NDP - 27


Sorry, no extra data today!

Monday, October 12, 2009

Thanksgiving

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Happy Thanksgiving


Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Alberta Polls

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A recent poll was taken of provincial parties in Alberta, asking which party people would vote for if an election was held today. Here were the results:

Progressive Conservative: 38.4%
Wildrose Alliance: 21.5%
Alberta Liberal: 20.5%
NDP: 10.7%
Other: 8.5%

But what would all this mean as seats? Here is a rough translation:

PC - 64
Lib - 9
WAP - 6
NDP - 4

Why would be PC Party remain so strong?
Well, for one thing, the decrease in the PC vote from the election to today (about 75%) is the same as the decrease in the Liberal vote. That means in any one-on-one contest between the two parties, the winner last time should win this time. The NDP is up, but their results last time were too spread out to win more than 4 seats. The Wildrose Alliance, meanwhile, is up 3 fold. Despite that, there are only 6 ridings I could find where the Alliance result last time could beat the PC result, even with a 3x inflation, and even with the Tories fighting at 3/4th strength. This should, however, put the WAP in second place in a clear majority of ridings all across the province, with the exception of Edmonton and parts of Calgary.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Saturday, October 10, 2009

No posting today

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Slow news weekend, no posting for today


Sorry, no extra data today!

Friday, October 9, 2009

What do you do in your spare time?

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What do you do in your spare time?
Me, I play a game called Diplomacy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomacy_(game)
You can play in person, or online. I do the latter

This is the website I recommend personally:
http://www.dipbounced.com/


Sorry, no extra data today!

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Tories remain in Majority territory

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Sorry, no extra data today!

Provinces again

<- Details below the fold

An update to my earlier post on the provinces.

First, coming elections.

Yukon - unknown 2010 (no interest in fixed dates)
New Brunswick - September 27 2010 (Fixed election dates)
Prince Edward Island - October 3 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Manitoba - October 4 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Ontario - October 6 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Newfoundland - October 11 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Saskatchewan - November 7 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Alberta - unknown 2012 (has rejected the idea of fixed dates)
Quebec - unknown 2012 (no interest in fixed dates)
British Columbia - May 14 2013 (Fixed election dates)
Nova Scotia - unknown 2013 (possibly looking towards fixed dates)

Next, provinces, below the fold. There are a few leadership elections (AB WAP, MB NDP, ON GRN) within the next few weeks, as well as by-elections (NS, NL, possibly MB) within that time span.





Ontario
72 - Liberal - Dalton McGunity
25 - PC - Tim Hudak
10 - NDP - Andrea Horwath
0 - Green - Frank de Jong - New leader picked Nov 15 2009

Quebec
67 - Liberal - Jean Charest
51 - Parti Quebecois - Pauline Marois
6 - Action Democratique - Sylvie Roy (Interim) New Leader picked Feb 2010
1 - Quebec Solidarie - Amir Khadir
0 - Parti Vert - Guy Rainville

British Columbia
49 - Liberal - Gordon Campbell
35 - New Democrats - Carole James
1 - Independent - Vicki Huntington (Leans right)
0 - Green Party - Jane Sterk

Alberta
70 - PC - Ed Stelmach
9 - Liberal - David Swann
2 - New Democrats - Brian Mason
1 - Wildrose Alliance - Paul Hinman - New leader picked October 17 2009
1 - Independent - Guy Boutilier (Leans right)

Manitoba
34 - New Democrats - Gary Doer - New leader picked October 17 2009 (Steve Ashton or Greg Selinger) We expect Selinger to win.
19 - PC - Hugh McFadyen
2 - Liberal - John Gerrard
0 - Green - James Beddome
1 - Vacant - Concordia? - Can find no official information indicating the riding is indeed vacant. Only news reports.

Saskatchewan
38 - Saskatchewan Party - Brad Wall
20 - New Democrats - Dwain Lingenfelter
0 - Liberals - Ryan Bater
0 - Greens - Larissa Shasko

Nova Scotia
31 - New Democrats - Darryl Dexter
11 - Liberal - Stephen McNeil
8 - PC - Karen Casey (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Greens - Ryan Watson
2 - Vacant - Antogonish and Inverness (3-way toss ups) Oct 20

New Brunswick
33 - Liberal - Shawn Graham
22 - PC - David Alward
0 - New Democrats - Roger Duguay
0 - Greens - Mike Milligan (Interim) New Leader picked 2009/2010

Newfoundland and Labrador
42 - PC - Danny Williams
3 - Liberal - Yvonne Jones (Interim) New Leader picked 2009/2010
1 - New Democrats - Lorraine Micheal
2 - Vacant. Terra Nova (strong PC), date not yet set, and The Straits and White Bay North (Strong PC) October 27

Prince Edward Island
24 - Liberal - Robert Ghiz
3 - PC - Olive Craine (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Green Party - Sharon Labchuck
0 - New Democrats - James Rodd

Yukon
9 - Yukon Party - Dennis Fentie
5 - Liberal Party - Arthur Mitchell
2 - New Democrats -Elizabeth Hanson
2 - Independent - John Edzerza (Leans NDP) - Brad Cathers (Leans Yukon Party)


Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Defection story grows. Just a bit.

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It's made it though one news cycle, at least on the blogosphere. So who will it be?

If it's anyone, it will be 1 or more of these 6

Gurbax Singh Malhi
Joe Volpe
Paul Szabo
Albina Guarnieri
Jim Karygiannis
John Cannis

If I was a betting man, I'd bet on Szabo, Guarnieri, and Karygiannis



Sorry, no extra data today!

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Liberals to defect! Maybe not really.

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Supposedly, there are three Liberals who are ready and willing to defect to the Tories, and could do so at any second, even during the time it took you to read this sentence! while I personally doubt that, its only fair to look at just whom might be involved.

Ruby Dhallia is the name thrown around the most, but with her recent 'problems' I don't know if the Tories would want her.

Keith Martin was previously in Harper's party, and Scott Brison is a former Tory; some might expect them to go back but I don't see it.

So who else?

From a Geographic standpoint, Siobhán Coady might be considered. Her riding is almost certainly going to fall to the Tories next election, and she has tried repeatedly to take the seat, finally winning in 2008. If she were to join the Tories she'd be their only Newfoundland MP and have clear Cabinet potential. Weather she actually agrees with anything the Tories stand for, however, is another question.

Andrew Kania, and Sukh Dhaliwal both have potential to lose their seats in the upcoming election, that could pressure them to switch.

Joyce Murray is a former BC Liberal, and might have some friends over on the other side.

Gurbax Singh Malhi, has opposed SSM. Navdeep Bains is in a riding that could be won by the Tories. Gaining one or both would bolster the Tory standing within the Sikh community.

Joe Volpe has always been a bit of a maverick, and his riding is the only one in Toronto that the Tories are within striking distance of.

Paul Szabo, and Albina Guarnieri from Mississauga are known as more socially conservative liberal members.

The the final group are 4 MP's from Scarborough, Jim Karygiannis, John Cannis, John McKay, and Derek Lee. For the Latter to make the jump would be political suicide, as his riding has become the "new mount royal" for the Liberals.

Weather all, some, or any of the above actually jump, however, is unclear.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Monday, October 5, 2009

By-Elections

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The ElectoMatic matrix is giving me the following results, at this time, for the ridings where by-elections are to be held.

New Westminster-Coquitlam
CPC win by 4% over NDP

Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
CPC win by 9% over NDP

Montmagny-Rivere-du-Loup
BQ by 22% over CPC

Hochelaga
BQ by 24% over Lib


Sorry, no extra data today!

Tories catch up to the trendline

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As expected, the Tories have caught up to our trendline. As a result, the trend has cooled somewhat, but remains strong.

CPC - 161
Lib - 74
BQ - 47
NDP - 26

Atlantic
Lib - 15
CPC - 12
NDP - 5

Quebec
BQ - 47
Lib - 20
CPC - 7
NDP - 1

Ontario
CPC - 65
Lib - 30
NDP - 11

West
CPC - 77
Lib - 9
NDP - 9


Sorry, no extra data today!

By-Elections

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Just wanted to make a quick note that the by-elections we mentioned earlier will be happening November 9th


Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Europe and the Lisbon Treaty

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Ireland has passed the Lisbon Treaty, and has paved the way for it to pass the remaining EU states.

More can be read about this here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lisbon


Sorry, no extra data today!

Saturday, October 3, 2009

Chart

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Below is a chart of poll results from the last month




Sorry, no extra data today!

Friday, October 2, 2009

Tories balance at Majority

<- Province breakdowns below

Due to the fact that it looks like there will be no election, I've had to adjust the trendline of the projection to extend further out. In short, what this means, is the current upward trend of the Tories means more, as we expect that without an election (IE a game changer) that it will continue. Therefore, we have adjusted our projection for this, and present both the new projection, using the new trendline, and the old projection, using the former trendline below.

Without Trendline (Old projection)
CPC - 148
Lib - 85
BQ - 48
NDP - 27

With Trendline (New projection)
CPC - 154
Lib - 80
BQ - 48
NDP - 26

Vote breakdown below the fold


NL
Lib - 4
CPC - 2 (Avalon, and St.John's South)
NDP - 1

PE
Lib - 3
CPC - 1

NS
Lib - 5
CPC - 3
NDP - 3

NB
CPC - 6
Lib - 3
NDP - 1

QC
BQ - 48
Lib - 19
CPC - 7
NDP - 1

ON
CPC - 61 (Including 1 seat in the city of Toronto)
Lib - 36 (only 7 seats outside the GTA)
NDP - 9

MB
CPC - 10
NDP - 3
Lib - 1

SK
CPC - 13
Lib - 1

AB
CPC - 28

BC
CPC - 22
NDP - 7
Lib - 7

TR
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

No Election

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Looks like there will be no election this November, if at all this year. I will begin tagging my projections as the 2010 election


Sorry, no extra data today!

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Tories continue commanding lead

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Including results from the brand new Ekos poll

CPC - 142
Lib - 89
BQ - 48
NDP - 29


Sorry, no extra data today!