Saturday, October 4, 2008


What ridings could some of the parties expect to pick up? In particular this focuses on the Greens and the NDP which are polling in near uncharted territory during a writ period.

Lets start with the Greens. There are really only 4 ridings that have a real shot at. They are, in no particular order:
Nunavut, Guelph, Saanich--Gulf Islands, Central Nova
To win these four they will need to get around 14% of the national vote. If they want to win many more than these four they will need to get more than that, and this is something that is just not lining up for them at the moment. What if it did?
Ottawa Centre, Calgary Centre, Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound, Calgary Centre-North, Dufferin--Caledon, Perth--Wellington
all of a sudden become vulnerable. Currently, we dont see the Greens raising in the polls far enough to make any of this possible. We also feel the local campaign in Nunavut favours the Conservatives. The Greens will end this election with between 0 and 3 seats.

How about the NDP?
First, in Quebec. They likely will win Outremont. Both Hull--Aylmer and Gatineau are also under attack from the NDP, but the party needs to pick it up to win here. At a time they appeared ready to take more, but with current poll numbers that seems unlikely.
Edmonton Strathcona is in danger of falling to the NDP, as are numerous ridings in Saskatchewan and BC, where the party has historically been strong. The NDP also appears ready to take St.John's east. Election results in Nova Scotia this election may be similar to 1997 for the NDP. In New Brunswick there are limited opportunities, but Madawaksa could fall. What about Ontario? The NDP could really pick up seats, but where? Places like Algoma, Thunder Bay, Oshawa, Davenport, Sudbury, Welland, Kenora, Peterborough, London, Essex, Chatham, Guelph, and even Ancaster (in that order) could be vulnerable. St. Catharines has been called Canada's modern bellwether. If the NDP is truly to take the official opposition, expect them to take that seat.


Please note that we will continue our daily tracking on Monday and follow it though until our final projection at noon on the 13th.

CPC - 138
Lib - 78
BQ - 51
NDP - 38
Grn - 1
IND - 2

CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

British Columbia
CPC - 22
NDP - 11
Lib - 3

CPC - 27
NDP - 1 (Strathcona, by a marginal margin)

CPC - 20
Lib - 5
NDP - 3

CPC - 51
Lib - 37
NDP - 18
* (Greens within striking distance in Guelph)

BQ - 51
Lib - 12
CPC - 10
NDP - 1
IND - 1

Lib - 20
CPC - 7
NDP - 3
Grn - 1
IND - 1