Saturday, October 4, 2008

Ridings

What ridings could some of the parties expect to pick up? In particular this focuses on the Greens and the NDP which are polling in near uncharted territory during a writ period.

Lets start with the Greens. There are really only 4 ridings that have a real shot at. They are, in no particular order:
Nunavut, Guelph, Saanich--Gulf Islands, Central Nova
To win these four they will need to get around 14% of the national vote. If they want to win many more than these four they will need to get more than that, and this is something that is just not lining up for them at the moment. What if it did?
Ottawa Centre, Calgary Centre, Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound, Calgary Centre-North, Dufferin--Caledon, Perth--Wellington
all of a sudden become vulnerable. Currently, we dont see the Greens raising in the polls far enough to make any of this possible. We also feel the local campaign in Nunavut favours the Conservatives. The Greens will end this election with between 0 and 3 seats.

How about the NDP?
First, in Quebec. They likely will win Outremont. Both Hull--Aylmer and Gatineau are also under attack from the NDP, but the party needs to pick it up to win here. At a time they appeared ready to take more, but with current poll numbers that seems unlikely.
Edmonton Strathcona is in danger of falling to the NDP, as are numerous ridings in Saskatchewan and BC, where the party has historically been strong. The NDP also appears ready to take St.John's east. Election results in Nova Scotia this election may be similar to 1997 for the NDP. In New Brunswick there are limited opportunities, but Madawaksa could fall. What about Ontario? The NDP could really pick up seats, but where? Places like Algoma, Thunder Bay, Oshawa, Davenport, Sudbury, Welland, Kenora, Peterborough, London, Essex, Chatham, Guelph, and even Ancaster (in that order) could be vulnerable. St. Catharines has been called Canada's modern bellwether. If the NDP is truly to take the official opposition, expect them to take that seat.

3 comments:

Stimpson said...

There's also Churchill in northern Manitoba. Liberal Tina Keeper is the incumbent, but her NDP opponent is strong. In 2006, the NDP's Niki Ashton placed second with a disgruntled New Democrat on the ballot as an independent. Add the Ashton and disgruntled-NDPer votes and you have more than Keeper's tally. As well, consider that Paul Martin was with Keeper for a rally in the riding's biggest city (pop. nearly 14,000) and much fewer than 100 people showed up. That doesn't bode well for the Liberal actress.
BTW, I like your analysis and really appreciate the work you've done with this blog. Thanks.

nixtuff said...

I did not include possible seats then NDP could win in BC, Saskatchewan, or Manitoba because the list would be rather large, and people could "see" that. I wanted to include seats that people could not "see" the NDP winning, but that the math is telling me could go NDP.

Stimpson said...

Yes, I could see that your were focusing on non-obvious places. But then the Thunder Bay ridings, particularly Superior North, *are* places where people could 'see' the NDP winning - strong second-place showing in 06, no incumbent running this time around, in northern Ontario where the carbon-tax idea is rather unpopular.