Monday, March 9, 2009

In review.

A history of projections at nixtuff.

I thought it might be time to stop and look back at some of our past numbers to see where the parties have gone over the time this blog has been in operation.

Lets start with December 7 2008.
This follows on the heels of an Angus Reid poll, shown here that had the Liberals at their lowest number ever. Never before had they been at 22% nationally. They have, on many occasions, dropped to 23%, including during 2008, as well as during the late 80's, but never before had they hit 22%. As a result, this is also the highest number ever recorded for the new Conservative party in terms of our seat projection. Let's take a look at those numbers:

CPC 204
BQ 48
Lib 35
NDP 16

This would have seen the Liberals drop to an all-time low of 13 seats in Ontario, yet still manage to capture at least 1 seat in at least 6 other provinces.

Compare these numbers, especially the Liberal number, to our most recent projection. The Liberals are up 79 seats from this point.

On October 6 2008, we projected the NDP with 45 seats due to strong polling numbers. On September 12 2008, we had the NDP in third place, though with only 35 seats. Compare this to their devastating December 7th numbers. They, along with the Liberals, have recovered since then.

The Bloc meanwhile, have gone from their low of 33 seats on September 12th to a high of 52 on October 10th. There is no doubt that it is this gain that prevented Harper from getting his majority.

As the spring political season heats up, we plan to introduce more political commentary, as well as continue our quest to find historic polling numbers.

Newest Numbers

Our newest national numbers, including one new poll, and both our trendline and baseline adjustments, show the following:

CPC - 119
Lib - 114
BQ - 46
NDP - 29

While the Liberals have been on the rise, they appear to have temporarily plateaued. Most of their gains so far have come from Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic. The West may be their new focus area.