Thursday, January 7, 2010

Projection Update


Our first official projection update in a while, but they confirm what we've been saying, that not much has changed.

CPC - 142
Lib - 81
BQ - 47
NDP - 38


CPC - 14
Lib - 12
NDP - 6

BQ - 47
Lib - 18
CPC - 9
NDP - 1

CPC - 49
Lib - 42
NDP - 15

Central Prairies:
CPC - 23
NDP - 3
Lib - 2

CPC - 27
NDP - 1

CPC - 19
NDP - 11
Lib - 6

Sorry, no extra data today!

Tory not to run for Mayor of TO


Thats the roomer according to the Toronto Star. I mentioned the possibility in my earlier post - what is the point of losing yet again? His weight now will come with his endorsement. If he endorses Minnan-Wong, suddenly he becomes the leading right-wing candidate for Mayor, and replaces Tory. If, and people may think this is silly, but it is still possible, he endorses Smitherman, it could vault him into an even further lead.

If the latter happens, I say it will be bad for Smitherman. Why? The campaign will turn into a Smitherman VS Not-Smitherman, and with no evidence that he could win such a race, whomever comes out as the top Not-Smitherman will win.

Who is this good for? Rossi, without a doubt. There is now space for a blue liberal / red tory to run. Rossi, who's connections are by in large the same connections John Tory has, can use that to pull himself on to a level playing field.

As of today (and remember, a week is a long time in politics) I can see Smitherman and Pantalone both topping 30%, but the winner taking less than 35%.

Sorry, no extra data today!