Saturday, November 7, 2009

Stelmach sticking around

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Ed Stelmach has won over 77% in his leadership review, and will stick around as Premier of Alberta. This itself might not be news, but what results from this may well be. If you remember, there were roomers of possible defectors sitting in the PC Caucus that were going to switch to the WAP. With Stelmach staying, and no change visible on the horizon, if anyone is going to switch, now is the time to do it. As we mentioned before on this blog, we expect the real number to be closer to 2 and not the 10 that has been speculated. We also project that if this is to happen, it will happen on Monday (after the defectors take Sunday to think). If Tuesday morning comes and there are no defectors, there may well never be.

The more interesting possibility is what I call a 'passive defection'. That a Tory in a rural riding (one the WAP could well win on it's own) would resign his seat. This would give Smith (WAP Leader) a place to run and win.


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Party found collapsed on floor, weak pulse, not breathing

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The ADQ has been loaded in an ambulence and is heading off towards the hospital. The party is all but dead. According to http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/gone+track+defectors/2195377/story.html two prominent ADQ MNAs have quit the party, including the failure of a politician who recently lost by two votes to another failure of a politician in the ADQ leadership race. Now, the ADQ is a party in Quebec, and Quebec is French, so let me translate all of this into English.

The ADQ is lying on a hospital table, and the docs are about to shock it. They've just yelled "CLEAR" and are going in. The next little while will determine weather or not the party will come back, or weather it is too late.


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Some good news

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Toronto has won the 2015 Pan Am games. Like the Olympics, this draws in crowds, and media attention. Also like the Olympics, this has side effects attached to it.

Economic:
This is good for the economy. People debate weather the games "cost" more than it "brings in" but these are false options. The "costs" often include construction, and the spending on that (by the government) goes to corporations and individuals. The economic benefit is therefore not cost minus 'profit' but cost plus 'profit'. The only one that stands to 'lose' is the Government's chequebook; and since the 'profit' of the games is not taxed at 100%, the games would 'lose' money regardless.

Political:
Being Mayor of Toronto, and to a lesser extent, Premier of Ontario, and Prime Minister of Canada in 2015 suddenly has become more important. We will have one provincial election, two municipal elections, and one, two, or more federal elections between now and then. The job of Mayor becomes much more sexy with this on the table, and it may give big names like Tory and Smitherman more of a reason to run. This would also give Harper and McGunity, presuming they get re-elected, a good 'break' and 'excuse' to leave.

Other:
This likely means much better public transit for Toronto. One of the big things that governments spend money on when they win bids such as this one is building a better and better public transit network to move around all the visitors to the games. Toronto has some great plans, but with the recent economic troubles, it became possible that like other past good ideas that have been proposed for public transit in Toronto, that this one could just become a "what could have been". My personal worry was that this recession would either directly or indirectly kill some of the great plans for transit that we have. Personally, my fear levels have been reduced, and I feel much more confidant about our future.

This is something that will pop up repeatedly, especially locally, again and again between now and 2015. Congrats to the committee who won us this bid.


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