Saturday, November 7, 2009

Stelmach sticking around


Ed Stelmach has won over 77% in his leadership review, and will stick around as Premier of Alberta. This itself might not be news, but what results from this may well be. If you remember, there were roomers of possible defectors sitting in the PC Caucus that were going to switch to the WAP. With Stelmach staying, and no change visible on the horizon, if anyone is going to switch, now is the time to do it. As we mentioned before on this blog, we expect the real number to be closer to 2 and not the 10 that has been speculated. We also project that if this is to happen, it will happen on Monday (after the defectors take Sunday to think). If Tuesday morning comes and there are no defectors, there may well never be.

The more interesting possibility is what I call a 'passive defection'. That a Tory in a rural riding (one the WAP could well win on it's own) would resign his seat. This would give Smith (WAP Leader) a place to run and win.

Sorry, no extra data today!

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