Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Quebec Election

PLQ 68
PQ 53

The ADQ will likely win the following:
Riviere Du Loup
Chutes De La Chaudiere
Beauce Nord

And may also win the following:
La Peltrie

We are also looking at the Lanaudiere and Laurentides areas to see if the ADQ has any strong candidates who might make a surprise showing on election night.


We've found three seats in those areas mentioned above (Which ring Montreal) where we would not be surprised if the ADQ managed to pull off an unexpected hold. They are Blainville, Mirabel, and Berthier. These three seats are held by somewhat strong MNAs, and were won by somewhat comfortable margins last time. While we do not see that they have the numbers to win, we do expect them to do better than others expect.

* Note. Our projections rely on our past weighting formula, but also have added in a new element of "trendlines" that attempts to show the trends before they happen, our projections are therefore for election day, and not for tomorrow, unlike other 'preidcto' sites.