A quick review on the situation in Alberta. Everyone is buzzing about a new poll showing the Alliance in first place. I ran the numbers though my mini Alberta ElectoMatic, and got the following results:
WAP - 47
ALP - 22
PC - 10
NDP - 4
Now I caution, that this is a single-poll projection, and hence, should be taken with a grain of salt.
However, since October, we've had 4 polls; so lets run them though the matrix to get a much more solid projection.
PC - 39 - 35.5%
WAP - 24 - 30.7%
ALP - 16 - 23.2%
NDP - 4 - 10.5%
So why is the Alliance doing so "bad"? Same reason the PC Party does "bad" in our single-poll projection. Their vote is too spread out. The single poll does go out of it's way to note the Alliance is leading in all rural areas plus the cities. What this will translate to on the ground is many strong second places. In order to win, the party needs to solidify its vote, or, just plain get more votes.
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Sorry, no extra data today!