Friday, January 29, 2010

New Senators


This will be a short post.

Harper has appointed 5 new senators. What does this mean?

First, it means that for the first time since the 1990's, the Tories have a plurality in the Senate. Even more interesting is that prior to the 1990's, the last time they managed this was when Bennett was Prime Minister. The Tories take control of the upper chamber less often than they take government, so this indeed is something of note.

Once all the appointments go though, the party standings will be as follows:
CPC - 51
Lib - 49
Oth - 5

So who are these people anyway?

The Quebecois of the bunch is a law and order type.
One of the Ontarians, is an immigrant from India. Hindu immigrants have been somewhat friendly towards the Conservatives, and this may be an attempt to shore up that front of the party.
The other three hail from Ontario, Newfoundland, and New Brunswick. All of them are sitting PC members in their respective provincial legislatures.

And that is the short of it.

Sorry, no extra data today!

Monday, January 25, 2010

Palestine Election 2010


This is the election that will never be, or so it seems. Palestine has been due for an election for quite some time now but has been unable to hold one due to the fact that the country is split in two.

Beyond the geographic split between the West Bank and Gaza Strip, there is a political split, with Fatah (and pals) controlling the West Bank, and Hamas (and pals) controlling the Gaza Strip. Neither, of course, really want's to lose their grasp on power in their half to risk gaining power in the other half (less it be ripped away though a civil war like it was the first time) The situation may then just remain as-is.

But what is the situation as-is? I've decided to take a look at another Wikipedia page found here and come up with a few numbers.

First of all, I tried to find out where this broken assembly currently stands. If I have my count right, Hamas and friends have 65 seats, while Fatah and friends have 47. I decided to make it interesting, and try to split the vote between the two. This is difficult as the Proportional Representation seats are assigned nationwide. What I decided to do was place all Fatah reps in the West Bank and all Hamas in Gaza. This seemed logical. This is what I came up with.

West Bank (2.6 mil)
Fatah - 42 (34 list)
Hamas - 19

Gaza Strip (1.6 mil)
Hamas - 46 (26 list)
Fatah - 5

So what do these numbers mean? Not much, sadly, they are pretty useless. This is, however, the closest we can get to the "situation as-is", and my simple calculation here and now, sadly, looks about as close as we will get to a Palestinian election this year.

Sorry, no extra data today!

Projection... for Ireland!


In our efforts to branch out our coverage, we've decided to provide some coverage of the ever pending Irish election.

A little history. Ireland has two main parties, Fianna Fáil (FF) and Fine Gael (FG). There is also a strong Labour Party. To summarize - and I'm dumbing it down a little to be concise - either FF wins on it's own, or FG and Labour wins with a coalition government. FF and FG have a very similar yet very different history. They were once a single party split by the idea of having the English monarch in Ireland. For this reason, neither party was really "left" or "right" of the other, but the co-operation with Labour over time has pulled FG to the left while FF has been allowed to drift to the right.

Now recent history. FF has been hurt by the recession, and it's perceived mismanagement of the situation. They have dropped like a rock in the polls, coming in third place by some counts. I've decided to run a poll average plus some trend and baselines and see if I can come up with a seat projection for the coming election. This is what I have.

FG - 57 (Gov)
FF - 43
Lab - 38 (Gov)
SC - 14
Grn - 8
Ind - 5
CC - 1

While there will errors in this count, of course, but it is a good rough guide as to what may happen when the election is called; of course, that could be 2012.

Sorry, no extra data today!

Saturday, January 23, 2010

And so what of the ADQ?


My last post on Quebec touches on the ADQ's problems, but what of them? What is next? Lets for a moment take a look at another provincial-only right-wing party. The Wildrose Alliance. They are, at the moment, polling for government in Alberta, but what of them before they became "hot"?

To fully understand what happened in Alberta, you have to go all the way back to the 1971 election of the PC Party. In 1971, and following this in 1975 and 1979, Social Credit remained the official opposition. In 1982, 2 members of the party started their own party, and managed to get re-elected, and take 12% of the vote. In 86 a western separatist party took 5% of the vote. In fact, outside of 89 and 2001, there has always been some kind of right-opposition in Alberta.

Lets glance back at Quebec for a moment. In 1985, the PC Party made an entrance, and took a whole 1% of the vote. In 1989, there was no major right-wing opponent to the Liberals, but outside of this, there also, like Alberta, been a right-wing opposition party. Recently, that has been the ADQ. Now, back to Alberta. In 1997 a man named Randy Thorsteinson lead the Alberta Social Credit party though an election and brought it to within spitting distance of the NDP. He later quit due to precived bias against him (he is Mormon) Thorsteinson went on to found the Alberta Alliance, which won a seat in the 2004 provincial election, electing Paul Hinman, also a Mormon. As the only MLA, Hinman went on to become leader. By the 2008 election, a new party, the Wildrose Party had spring up as another right-wing alternative. It had the big names, and big dollars, but lacked the grassroots organization and in-place party machine the Alberta Alliance did. The two decided to merge and throw in their chances with a single party. Although they came very close to re-electing Hinman, they failed. Now it is 2010. The party has a new leader, they found a seat for Hinman, have two floor crossers, and are polling near 40%.

So, what does this mean for Quebec? It means, in short, the ADQ may be dead in a few years, but the "ADQ" may yet take government. How? The same way Reform Party member Stephen Harper become Prime Minister. Though mergers, party re-branding, and other such things. There were roomers a few years ago that should Charest ever lose government, that the federal Conservatives would make a serious attempt to organize a provincial party in Quebec. How much water this holds is unknown, but the fact that it is a possibility does mean a possible bittersweet end to the ADQ. Clearly the ADQ was never able to move beyond Dumont, but one thing they did gain was a present party machine, and grassroots connections. Even if many of their supporters have drifted, those who were once "in the know" likely remember others "in the know" making connections easy to re-establish.

I for one feel that this is the path the ADQ is going to be heading down. Weather it changes it's name, or merges with some upstart party, I do not see the ADQ in it's current form lasting for very much longer, while at the same time I do not see the idea of a right-wing francophone opposition party vanishing any time soon.

Sorry, no extra data today!

Friday, January 22, 2010



Recently, over at 308.blogspot they've claimed that with current poll numbers, the ADQ could be eliminated from the map. I wanted to check to see just how true this was. They are currently sitting on near half the vote they took last time; halving their vote in every riding would indeed wipe them from the board. Only two of their MNA's have seats that they could realistically win in the next election, and that is presuming a strong showing. In reality, it is going to come down to weather or not their leader can hold on to his own seat. Right now it is not looking good.

So how are things looking for the other parties. Well lets examine this using Quebec's two 'communities'.

First, among francophone.
PQ - 50%
PLQ - 30%
QS - 8%
ADQ - 7%
PV - 4% (AKA the Greens)

And among non-francophones
PLQ - 77%
PV - 8%
PQ - 7%
QS - 3%
ADQ - 1%

When combined you get:

PQ - 41%
PLQ - 39%
QS - 7%
ADQ - 6%
PV - 5%

The most interesting thing to note here is not the lack of support for the PQ or ADQ among non-francophones, as this has always been the case, but the fact that the Green Party is #2 among this group. Perhaps it is of little real use, but interesting to note nonetheless.

Below the fold, regional breakdowns, as well federal information.

There is also a region by region breakdown. In the Montreal area...

PLQ - 40%
PQ - 37%
QS - 9%
PV - 7%
ADQ - 5%

in the Quebec city area...

PLQ - 37%
PQ - 35%
ADQ - 15% (this is good news fro them)
QS - 8%
PV - 4%

The last figure for the ADQ may mean they might be able to hold on to their seats, but it is iffy at best.

Federal numbers

BQ - 40%
Lib - 23%
CPC - 17%
NDP - 15%
Grn - 4%

Among Francophones

BQ - 48%
Lib - 18%
CPC - 15%
NDP - 15%
Grn - 3%

Among Non-Francophones

Lib - 43%
CPC - 22%
NDP - 19%
Grn - 8%
BQ - 7%

Again, we note the Greens do better among non-francohphones


BQ - 36%
Lib - 27%
NDP - 18%
CPC - 12%
Grn - 6%

And Quebec City

CPC - 30%
BQ - 30%
NDP - 20%
Lib - 14%
Grn - 4%



CPC - 133
Lib - 91
BQ - 48
NDP - 36

No commentary

Sorry, no extra data today!

TO Mayor - Rossi attacks transit


Rocco Rossi has finally positioned himself in the race for mayor, and has put himself exactly where we put on a week ago, on the right.

Rossi has come out swinging against the evils of public transit (how dare we help those who cannot afford cars!) and has used the same pathetic excuse to kill it that politicians like Mike Harris did to permanently stop transit projects in this city, saying that its only "temporary" thing until we "have the money" Or, reading it more properly, until we have EXTRA money... since when does government ever have "extra" money? Never, and that's precisely when Rossi wishes to build our public transit improvements.

Sorry, no extra data today!

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

A little Randomness

<- Click here to see the full post

Every once in a while I like to do a random post of personal interest to myself. I will hide the details below the fold, but in short, this post is about overpopulation and arable land.

I've taken the amount of arable land, and applied an arbitrary number to it based on my personal observations, and decided that 1 sq KM of land can support 1,000 people. Using this as a base, I decided to find out which countries are over populated. Using some stats from Wikipedia, I've put the results below.

First note that I've decided to only use countries with over a million people, and even then to only list a few of them that are of particular interest. and even then, only note ones that are overpopulated (or underpopulated) by a good margin. Note the percentage noted is the inverse of the population that can be supported. Hence, a nation that can support 1 million, but has 10 million, will be listed as 90%.

Overpopulated by
Gaza Strip - 92.44%
Israel - 52.42%
Switzerland - 47.38%
Belgium - 19.90%
Ecuador - 99.64%
Netherlands - 54.65%
South Korea - 66.53%
United Kingdom - 7.15%
Egypt - 62.52%
Japan - 65.80%
Bangladesh - 48.61%

And some countries are, by these numbers, underpopulated. Here is a list of those.
Iraq - 117%
Afghanistan - 162%
France - 201%
Brazil - 214%
United States - 458%
Canada - 1,183%
Australia - 2,231%

And lastly, if the countries had as many people as they could "support" they would have this many people, above and beyond their current population.

USA - 1,354 million
Russia - 1,075
Australia - 448
Brazil - 400
Canada - 383
India - 358

Monday, January 18, 2010



A short update on the provinces.

Ontario -
Toronto Centre is currently vacant, and Ottawa West-Nepean will be soon. Both MPP's are running for mayor, and both will likely be replaced by Liberals, though there is a chance the Tories can steal the latter.

Current official party standings are...
Lib - 71
PC - 25
NDP - 10
Vac - 1

The members who quit the ADQ because of it's now former leader have yet to re-join the party, if they will at all.

PLQ - 66
PQ - 51
ADQ - 4
QS - 1
IND - 3

British Columbia
The seatless Conservatives have been doing somewhat well in recent polls.

BCL - 49
NDP - 35
IND - 1

Expetations are that the Alliance will either win government or opposition in the next election.

PC - 68
Lib - 9
WAP - 3
NDP - 2
IND - 1

The lone vacant riding is solid NDP.

NDP - 35
PC - 19
Lib - 2
Vac - 1

Saskatchewan Party continues to lead in the polls.

Sask - 38
NDP - 20

Nova Scotia
PC Party to elect a new leader in October

NDP - 32
Lib - 11
PC - 9

New Brunswick
The Liberals are trailing in the polls, perhaps more than any other incumbent government. Word is that the new user fee for ambulance usage is an issue.

Lib - 33
PC - 22

Williams remains popular.

PC - 43
Lib - 4
NDP - 1

Prince Edward Island
The Tories may finally pick a leader this year, but the chances of that are low. They've had an interim leader for 3 years now.

Lib - 24
PC - 3

While on the topic of Other Legislatures in Canada, we may as well take a quick glance at the Senate.
This wikipedia page (Parts of which I created) explains the situation very well.

CPC - 46
Lib - 49
PC - 2
IND - 3 (including Anne Cools)
VAC - 5

There are no retirements before Parliament returns, and presuming Harper appoints new senators, the standings at that time will be:

CPC - 51
Lib - 49
PC - 2
IND - 3

Sorry, no extra data today!

Friday, January 15, 2010

TO Mayor 2010


A picture is worth 1000 words.

Sorry, no extra data today!

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Tories take hit


Current projection
CPC - 135
Lib - 87
BQ - 48
NDP - 38

No commentary

Sorry, no extra data today!

Toronto, first poll!


A new poll has come out ranking who people would vote for Mayor in Toronto. The results are as follows:

Smitherman - 44%
Giambrone - 17%
Rossi - 15%
Pantalone - 5%
Mammoliti - 4%

The poll states that 58%, however, were undecided, so the real base numbers are as follows:

Smitherman - 18%
Giambrone - 7%
Rossi - 6%
Pantalone - 2%
Mammoliti - 2%
I'm also going to add:
Minnan-Wong - 2%

Rossi, due to Tory's departure, can have a real run. I still maintain that you can't have three successful NDPers in the race, and that Mammoliti is the one set for a drop. Pantalone, and Minnan-Wong, I think, are under-rated.

So where do I see the race at this time? IE- if people truly knew all the candidates? Simple. Right here:

Smitherman - (L) - 38%
Pantalone - (N) - 18%
Rossi - (L) - 15%
Giambrone - (N) - 15%
Minnan-Wong - (C) - 12%
Mammoliti - (N) - 2%

I can see Mammoliti dropping rather than being embarrassed so badly.

Needless to say, Smitherman, at this time, has a good lead.

Sorry, no extra data today!

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Projection Update


Our first official projection update in a while, but they confirm what we've been saying, that not much has changed.

CPC - 142
Lib - 81
BQ - 47
NDP - 38


CPC - 14
Lib - 12
NDP - 6

BQ - 47
Lib - 18
CPC - 9
NDP - 1

CPC - 49
Lib - 42
NDP - 15

Central Prairies:
CPC - 23
NDP - 3
Lib - 2

CPC - 27
NDP - 1

CPC - 19
NDP - 11
Lib - 6

Sorry, no extra data today!

Tory not to run for Mayor of TO


Thats the roomer according to the Toronto Star. I mentioned the possibility in my earlier post - what is the point of losing yet again? His weight now will come with his endorsement. If he endorses Minnan-Wong, suddenly he becomes the leading right-wing candidate for Mayor, and replaces Tory. If, and people may think this is silly, but it is still possible, he endorses Smitherman, it could vault him into an even further lead.

If the latter happens, I say it will be bad for Smitherman. Why? The campaign will turn into a Smitherman VS Not-Smitherman, and with no evidence that he could win such a race, whomever comes out as the top Not-Smitherman will win.

Who is this good for? Rossi, without a doubt. There is now space for a blue liberal / red tory to run. Rossi, who's connections are by in large the same connections John Tory has, can use that to pull himself on to a level playing field.

As of today (and remember, a week is a long time in politics) I can see Smitherman and Pantalone both topping 30%, but the winner taking less than 35%.

Sorry, no extra data today!

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Two Alberta PC members defect to Alliance


Two Calgary area MLA's have defected to the Wildrose Alliance. This news story:
explains the details. In short, the Wildrose Alliance now has 3 MLAs, displacing the NDP as the third largest party in the legislature. I for one am surprised, I thought that the window for defections had passed.

Sorry, no extra data today!

Sunday, January 3, 2010

Toronto, 2010

<- Click here to read more!!

I decided to take the current wikipedia page for the 2010 Toronto Municipal Election and rate the candidates they have listed. This, is what I came up with.

You will notice two "F"s. One candidate is the former last placed candidate. When I ran in the 2006 Toronto Municipal Election in Ward 19 I was able to win 511 votes in just the ward, while he did not top 200 city wide. For this reason I do not consider him a serious candidate to win. Another F on the table is "Pinball Clemons" who is not a Canadian, and therefore cannot run.

One thing that stands out is the large number of NDPers who may try to replace current mayor David Miller (also of the NDP). Many people think of Toronto as a large "NDP" municipal entity, but the reality is that Toronto has only ever had three real "NDP" mayors. John Sewell, Barbara Hall (who since has become a Liberal), and David Miller (who has been publicly supporting the Green Party recently). NDPers have much more luck getting elected to council. Due to the very crowded NDP field, some candidates, like Olivia Chow, may decide not to run at all, and this is exactly what I project her to do. Frances Lankin, while known, is not as high profile as some of the other NDP candidates. Mammoliti and even Nash suffer from this as well. The one thing the NDP has been known for is running a single candidate, and if Pantalone and/or Giambrone run, there will be great pressure on these two to drop out of the race.

On the right, Rob Ford gets a low rating because his politics is more in line with the former Canadian Alliance party, which never came close to winning even a single seat in Toronto. Denzil Minnan-Wong, while to the right of the remaining candidates, has done quite a bit of work to position himself as the unofficial "Opposition Leader" to David Miller, and that may pay off. Micheal Thompson, while not as politically astute as Minnan-Wong, is African-Canadian, and may try to tap into that voter bloc. Thompson, as well, is from Scarborough, while all the other remaining serious candidates are from either the former city of Toronto, or North York.

For the Liberals, we have a trio of candidates. Rosco Rossi has positioned himself as the "Official" Liberal Candidate, and that is very clear. This is similar to 06 when Stephen LeDrew, fresh off being the President of the Federal Liberal Party ran for mayor. While LeDrew finished with less than 2% of the vote, he did finish third. Rossi will make all the lists the media makes, and will be interviewed quite often. He could well count on 5% of the vote, but getting beyond that will be difficult. He will vacuum up all the voters looking for a grit to park their ballot with, and as a result, may harm fellow Liberal Shelly Carrol's chances. With more left of centre candidates running than right of centre candidates, Carrol could be squeezed out, and with bigger names putting their names into the hat, I don't foresee her pulling off a victory.

The final two candidates are Liberal George Smitherman and Tory John Tory (that was not a pun). The Media have decided these are the two front runners and so, as we enter the election, they are. This does not mean either of them will win. Remember that the last Federal Liberal leadership race was between Rate and Iggy, and Dion won. In Alberta, the former "third placed" candidate for the PC Party leadership is now the Premier. With such a crowded field, there is no guarantee either of these two will win.

A closer analysis of the "serious" candidates is included below.

What we end up with is the following list.

George Smitherman - Liberal
John Tory - PC
Joe Pantalone - NDP
Denzil Minnan-Wong - Conservative
Adam Giambrone - NDP
Michael Thompson - PC

Lets go one by one.
Pantalone has been in municipal politics for 25 years, and is the most experienced on the list. As David Miller's Deputy Mayor, he could be seen as the "successor" to Miller's legacy, for better or for worse. Pantalone comes across as one of the "Scary NDP" types that the right-wingers branded David Miller as. He had the highest council expense tab, but countered saying his assistants have followed him though the years and are very experienced. After 25 years, one could call him a career politician. Pantalone has the best chances of getting the unofficial NDP nod, and the other players would hope he does. He is a known quantity, and there would not be the need to "dig up dirt" on him, or invent new attack lines - the old and existing ones will work fine. Pantalone's attitude towards his job seems very similar to Miller's and as such a Pantalone victory would be more "business as usual" with regard to how Toronto has been run over the past 7 years.

Adam Giambrone is 33. Despite this relatively young age, he has managed to serve as federal New Democratic Party President, and is currently the chair of the TTC, the largest transit system in the country. Giambrone has taken his work very seriously, and has been able to remain relatively "clean", though he has had his run ins with trouble. In 2009 he sent an e-mail to a Councillor from a neighboring ward warning him to steer clear of his business. Giambrone is on the up, unlike Pantalone who is looking to put a cap on his career. A successful run for Mayor followed by a successful term could lead to the leadership of the Federal New Democrats, Provincial New Democrats, or should the province return to old voting trends, the Premier's chair. Giambrone may run regardless of what Pantalone does, and if he does he could pose a threat to the Conservatives and Liberals as he is much harder to attack. Giambrone is clearly viewed as the most pro transit of the candidates.

Michael Thompson is the city Councillor perhaps best known for suggesting that Toronto Police should be able to stop black teenagers in black neighborhoods looking for guns. Making the comment more notable is the fact that Thompson is himself black. Thompson is the least known of the others on the short list but his name does appear in the newspapers. Quite often the media will come to him for comment, or note that he is one of a group of Councillors doing something. When asked, however, most Torontonians likely could not tell you much about Michael Thompson. This lack of information can serve him well. Being the only major candidate for Mayor from Scarborough since the mega city was created over a decade ago could garner him votes from that part of the city. Being a visible minority may garner him votes from that minority, despite the fact that his tough law-and-order stances are often out of line with the city as a whole. Thompson is also not as politically astute as the others, and he may yet prove to have a Mel Lastman like tendency to speak off the cuff and get himself in hot water.

Denzil Minnan-Wong is the most right wing person on the short list. More than that, Minnan-Wong is right wing in a way that separates him from past "right wingers". Stephen Harper recently commented that he does not wish to cut transfers to persons or province, but rather, wants to cut salaries of government workers. It is this 'new right' sort of thinking that Minnan-Wong shows in his policies. Minnan-Wong focuses on tax cuts and cutting the 'gunk' out of city government. Over the past three years, Minnan-Wong has done everything in his power to become the visible opposition leader to David Miller. While right wing, Minnan-Wong is not exactly the same kind of "right wing" that tends to scare urban voters. He focuses on talking about tax cuts, not service cuts, on streamlining departments, not eliminating them. Despite this, if elected Minnan-Wong would be the most right wing mayor Toronto has had in the modern era. With solid ideas and a clear direction, Minnan-Wong is least likely to be lead around by City Council, and is the most likely to conflict with it. He comes across as the "Change" Candidate. Weather or not Toronto wants the kind of change he brings remains to be seen.

George Smitherman is gay. That is one of the first things that people will tell you about him. He also used to be Deputy Premier, Miniter of Health, and the Minister of Energy. Unfortunately, he was Deputy Premier when the HST was proposed, Miniter of Health during the C. Difficile issue, and Minister in charge of the OLG during it's recently scandals. Smitherman lies on the left of the Liberal party, and this has often put him at odds with Dalton McGunity, who lies on the right. Smitherman's biggest problem, perhaps, is that he has a tendency to come across as a little 'slick'. When the scandals of the past are taken into account, Smitherman can appear to be 'one of those Politicians only out for himself'. While this will not put him down against Tory or Patnalone, it could hurt his chances of the race boils down to Smitherman vs Giambrone, Thompson, or Minnan-Wong. Currently, Smitherman can be considered the "Front Runner".

John Tory is running again. Perhaps best known for losing, he has lost the 2007 provincial election and the 2003 municipal election. Tory currently hosts a radio show and the idea of losing yet again may push him not to run. My gut says he will, with such a crowded field he could squeak in even on a quarter of the vote. Tory is the most centrist of the candidates, but in recent years has appeared to drift to the right. Tory is known for his rivalry, real or imagined, with George Smitherman. Much as Smitherman appears as a "politician" so does Tory. Tory is a very well known quantity, and likely has more name recognition than any other candidate. Tory is also perhaps the only candidate who's endorsement could be very important. Mayoral elections in Toronto usually boil down in one of three ways. PC vs NDP. Liberal VS NDP. Or PC VS Liberal. Smitherman, endorsement or no endorsement, will lead the Liberals. Pantalone and Giambrone are well known as NDPers, an endorsement from one of the other will mean little. Even a Smitherman endorsement of some other Liberal will likely mean naught as we would likely head to a PC vs NDP race. Should Tory endorse either Minnan-Wong or Thompson, however, it would vault that candidate into a clear second place against Smitherman. Win or not, John Tory will have the most impact on the race.

To review, in summary, we have four groups of three.

Right Wingers: Minnan-Wong, Tory, Thompson
Left Wingers: Smitherman, Giambrone, Pantalone

Reformers: Giambrone, Minnan-Wong, Thompson
Politicians: Pantalone, Smitherman, Tory

So, where will the chips fall at the end of the day? Toronto has a history of electing Reformers to office, but at the same time the current top three candidates are all very "politician" like. My gut says that the Thompson campaign will fall by the wayside as things go on, and that Giambrone may not even run. If this is the case, it could well be a real four man race to the finish line, with Tory, Smitherman, Pantalone, and Minnan-Wong each having a good chance of winning, each representing one of the four main parties (with the federal and provincial Tories seen as different). Together, I project they would clear 85% of the vote, and that the winner may end up with a final total of 30%. I also see that there could be changes to the way Toronto elects its Mayors if this does happen, especially if Minnan-Wong wins.

All that being said, remember that a week is an eternity in politics. Things will happen between now and the election on October 25th that we just don't know yet. Which lesser candidates run and drop can also have a major impact on the final result. We will keep an eye on what is going on and keep you up to date.


Friday, January 1, 2010

US Third Party Politicians


In Canada, it is somewhat rare to find a legislature with only two parties represented.
At the moment, four provinces (BC, SK, PE, NB) qualify. In the US however, it is rare for anyone except a Democrat or a Republican to get elected. Independents do win. Joe Lieberman, for example. Technically, he leads his own statewide party that nominates only him, but in reality of course, he is an Independent. I decided to take a quick look to find third party elected politicians in the US.

First, former members. A Green was elected to the state house in Maine and a member of the Constitution Party in Montana. Neither members currently hold seats. A Green was elected in Arkansas, but defected to the Democrats.

There are only two states with current real third party members that have been elected to the legislature. In New York, the state assembly has four parties. Along with the D's and the R's, there is a member of the "Working Families" party. The party is generally moderately left wing. There are also members of New York's "Independence Party", which descended from the 1992 presidential bid of Ross Perot. The party is right wing. One member was elected from this party and another has defected from the Republicans. The member for the WFP is from Long Island and the original member from the IP is from up state.

The only other state with third party members is Vermont. There, a strong "Progressive Party" has won seats for the past number of years. They currently have one State Senator, from Burlington, the state capital. In the state house, there are 5 members from the Progressive Party, from all over the state. Although Bernie Sanders has never returned the affection, the Progressives have been his biggest supporters. Sanders, currently, is a United States Senator from Vermont and officially sits as an Independent. The Progressives could be considered NDP-like in terms of policy.

Sorry, no extra data today!