Thursday, September 6, 2012

Libs hold Vaughan, lose Kitchener

The Liberal Party of Ontario has managed to hold on to the Vaughan ridings by a wide margin, but has lost it's attempt to grab Kitchener-Waterloo from the Tories.

At the time of this post, Kitchener-Waterloo has 20% of the polls in, and the NDP leads the PC Party, 43% to 30%. It's still a bit to early to call, but, things should become very clear by 10pm. I will edit in more counts below.

With a third of the polls in, I've seen enough, and am declaring an NDP victory.

Where I was wrong

Ridings where I was wrong, but within the margin of error (12)
Riviere Du Loup
Jean Lesage
Mille Isles

Ridings where I was just plain wrong where the model, after adjustments, is correct. (3)
Trois Rivieres

Ridings where I was just plain wrong where the model, even after adjustments, is within the margin of error. (8)
Cote De Sud
Becuase Sud
St. Henri

Ridings where I was just plain wrong where the model, even after adjustments, is still just plain wrong. (3)
La Prairie

Model on Results

Further adjustments:
50% of the ADQ vote given to the Liberals
Aussant Factor increased to 25,000 due to CAQ adjustment
N Shore set to 0
S Shore set to .4

PQ - 58
PLQ - 42
CAQ - 23
QS - 2

Full file here
Click above

Quebec Results

Putting in the real final popular vote into the ElectoMatic, I also had to make the following adjustments:

ON did not gain any "Student Votes"
"Student Factor" set at 200, 650 gives better results.
"Aussant Factor" set at 13,500, should have been set at 11,050
CAQ took .31 less than ADQ in QC area, set at .45
CAQ took .47 more (than ADQ) in N Shore, set at .2
(CAQ) took .41 more in Montreal, set at .27
took .28 more in south shore, set at .0
"Anglo Factor" set at 35%, with "Montreal Factor" at 0.78, Both should have been set at 0

These results give
PQ - 48
PLQ - 44
CAQ - 31
QS - 2
ON - 0

The CAQ is still winning far too many seats, indicating to me that the fault is with transfering 100% of the ADQ numbers to the CAQ.

I will try that and report back.

Ontario By-Elections

Polls close at 9pm, and I will hopefully be able to live-tweet all the results, but something may come up.

Vaughan is expected to be a close race between the Liberals and Tories, but the Liberals seem to have the edge.

Kitchener-Waterloo seems to be a close 3-way race, where no party has the edge.