Friday, February 19, 2010

PR. Part 4 (final)


So now that the examples are all up, I'd like to take a look at how history would be different if we had such a system.

In 2008 the Greens would have qualified for 3 seats.

in 2000, the Alliance would have won 9 seats in Ontario, 1 in Quebec, and 1 in the Atlantic. If this had happened, we may have never seen the merger. At the same time the PC Party would have on 4 seats in Ontario, 1 on the Prairies, and 2 in Alberta.

1997, as noted, would have turned the majority into a minority.

1993 would have been different for sure with both the NDP and PC Party qualifying for official party status. The PC Party wold have won at least 1 seat in each region, and may not have dropped off the radar as they did using our system.

In 1988, the NDP would have won 3 seats in Quebec. It is possible, given history, that they would have taken a huge bite out of the Bloc in 1993.

1980 would have seen the number of Liberals elected from the west go from 2 to 6, and may have helped, in some way, to step the anti-Liberal tide from the area. Social Credit would have also made their last stand here, with 2 final stats, behind the NDP in Quebec with 3.

1979 would have seen Joe Clark with 6 Tories from Quebec.

Lastly, 1972 would have been a more clear Liberal win.

The first real changes we see are in New Brunswick. In the 1991 election, CoR leader, Arch Pafford would have almost certainly won a seat from the list, and the CoR may have remained as a Reform-like party in the Atlatnic. In 1987, when the Liberals shut out all other parties, the PC Party would have won 5 seats, and hence, the things CoR needed to grow in the first place may have never occurred.

As we go further and further back we can see how important many of these chances would/could have been.

The Saskatchewan Party may have never formed.
The Alberta Alliance may have taken off years before its successor did.
Social Credit won a seat in Alberta in 1997 and may have used that as a platform to stage a comeback.
The Greens would have a seat from BC.
The 1996 BC election would have resulted in a tie
The Greens would have a seat from Ontario.
Back in the 70's the NDP would have never formed the official opposition. Even small changes like this may have meant that Bob Rae would never become Premier. Rae was popular before his government screwed up. It is possible that he would have followed Broadbent, became NDP leader, and may well have won huge numbers of seats in 1993. This just goes to show that any of these small changes could have had huge impacts on history.

Sorry, no extra data today!