Saturday, June 20, 2009

Upcoming elections

Beyond the federal election we expect this fall (November 9th, or 16th) we also are tracking possible provincial elections.

New Brunswick went to the polls in 2006. They have since set fixed election dates, and will go again on 2010, Sep 27th to be exact. The PC's have a very good chance at taking the province back.

PEI went in the spring of 2007. PEI however has a recent history of going every 3.5 years, if they keep up with this, the fall of 2010 is possible, however if poll numbers sag, 2011 or even 2012 is possible. Currently, the Liberals look very strong.

The NWT may go in the next few years, but have no political parties, which sadly, makes it hard to track.

Newfoundland now has fixed election dates and will go in the fall of 2011. There is no evidence to suggest it will be anything but another blow out for the Tories.

Manitoba went in the spring of 2007, meaning the next election could be 'expected' in the spring of 2011. Gary Doer has been leader since forever (well, to be technically correct, since the early 1990s) There will likely be pressure on him to resign. The difficulty is that if he resigns any later than this fall, the new Premier may not have time to establish himself before the election. Doer has also shown no signs he intends to leave and might fight another election. If he stays I expect an election earlier than later, and if he goes the opposite, perhaps the fall of 2011.

Saskatchewan went in the fall of 2007 and could be expected to go in the fall of 2011. The Saskatchewan party won here, but due to vote distribution in the province, their seat margin does not match their vote margin in a way it normally would in another province. This could indicate that they might go again as early as the fall of 2010 or spring of 2011 if they are leading in the polls.

That means it will be a quiet summer. No minority governments in any province, and no federal election until November. You can, however, trust niXtuff to keep it's eyes open for any developments.