Monday, July 27, 2009


CPC - 120
Lib - 110
BQ - 47
NDP - 31

No commentary

Tuesday, July 21, 2009


As you may have noticed, I did not update last thursday. Polls have slowed, and due to that, I plan to update every second thursday when there are very few polls.

Friday, July 10, 2009

Tories widen lead

A new Angus Reid poll has been added to the Matrix, resulting in a larger Tory lead.

CPC - 120
Lib - 111
BQ - 47
NDP - 30

Lib - 50
CPC - 46
NDP - 10

BQ - 47
Lib - 21
CPC - 7

CPC - 62
Lib - 19
NDP - 14

Lib - 21
NDP - 6
CPC - 5

Some other notes from the poll:
Ontario is the most supportive of the "stimulus" package. As well, most people think said package will help the various provinces the most (Read: Ontarians are happy that Ontario is finally getting some cash)

Support for the parties, all parties, is soft right now. In the 2006 election we saw the polls not move and inch before the x-mas break. After it, the Tories suddenly had the lead, and again, the polls did not move, resulting in a CPC minority. The polls have been generally stagnant since Iggy has taken over, with the Liberals generally having a slight edge on the Tories, but the margins swinging back and forth between 130 and 110 seats for either party. My guess is that this will continue until the writ is dropped this fall, and will continue into the election, only truly settling in the final week or two of the campaign. It really is anyone's game at this point.

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Tories bounce back into first

The Tories and Liberals continue their struggle for first by fighting over a dozen or so seat in Ontario. Right now the Tories hold the edge. The Tories have also managed to bounce back in Quebec, and are on the way up in BC.

Thursday, July 2, 2009

One Poll Special - Greens with 2 seats

This is a projection based on a single poll, the most recent Ekos poll. Single poll projections are very problematic, but are interesting regardless. Here are the results I get:

Liberals back on top

The new Ekos poll has been added to the matrix.

Lib - 116
CPC - 114
BQ - 46
NDP - 32

Thursday Update

Not much going on this week that changes things radically from the projection posted a few days ago.


Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Happy Canada Day

Happy Canada Day all. This country has somehow survived though 142 years.

Factoid: Did you know that there are also province days? Sure there is no "Ontario Day" or "Quebec Day" but each province celebrates a certain date.

Each province has a civic holiday on the first Monday or August. A civic Holiday is sort of a rich mans holiday, as those in salaried jobs tend to get it off while the hourly workers tend not to, nor do they tend to be compensated extra for their time worked on the holiday.

New Brunswick, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan each celebrate a province day (IE Saskatchewan Day) on this date. Alberta celebrates Heritage Day. Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island celebrate Natal Day. Ontario also celebrates, but each city makes up a name, for example, Simcoe Day in Toronto, or Colonel By day in Ottawa.

Beyond this; Manitoba celebrates a Louis Riel Day on the third monday in February. This a very "Manitoban" thing to celebrate. Newfoundland has an "Orangemen's Day" that is celebrated on the 12th of July, though without official status. Quebec celebrates a Fête nationale du Québec on the same day as St. John the Baptist Day.

So on what date were the various provinces founded?
Alberta and Saskatchewan were carved from the NWT on September 1, 1905. Manitoba was carved out of the NWT on July 15, 1870. The remainder of the provinces joined as former colonies.
New Brunswick was cut from Nova Scotia on August 16, 1784.
Ontario was cut from Quebec on December 26, 1791.
Unfortunately, the other provinces (Quebec, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island, and British Columbia) were never cut from another colony, so to speak, and hence a "founding date" for any of them is difficult to ascertain.