Sunday, September 2, 2012

Thinking Update

After seeing all 4 scenarios and the math needed, I wanted to let everyone following my "thinking" posts know that I am now far more certain as to the possibilities of the election.

In other news
Tomorrow at 9am we find out who that "LiberalWho" is
Within the next 36 hours we'll see if there are any final polls to tell us where things are going
I will write a short review about the election projections and predictions in Kitchener-Waterloo and in Vaughan, the Ontario By-Elections

Prévision des Election - PQ Majority

What happens: The Undecided voters are, in part, those undecided between the PQ, QS, and ON. They swing to the PQ. CAQ-PLQ undecideds stay home. 

Why I think this will happen: The PQ is, odds on, going to win the election. Yet, we've seen the rise of the QS and ON. The polls are still close with both the PLQ and CAQ within 6 points of the first placed PQ. There may be a rush, a minor one, among voters who dislike federalism to support the PQ to ensure there is no minority. 

Why I think this wont happen: Just as the CAQ appears "stuck" at a support ceiling, so does the PQ. With the PQ having ample opportunity to pull ahead of the other parties, they've yet failed to do so. I think that it is clear, from this, that voters just do not trust Marois. They see her as the female version of Parizeau, when what they really want is another Bouchard.

PQ - 70 - 36.13% - Majority
PLQ - 28 - 27.61%
CAQ - 25 - 28.44%
QS - 2 - 5.73%
ON - 0 - 1.02%
PVQ - 0 - 0.79%
Aut - 0 - 0.28%

(Aut stands for Autres, or, "Others" in French) 



Prévision des Election - CAQ Victory

What happens: CAQ picks up the undecided voters as votes decided they do not want either the PQ or the PLQ.

Why I think this will happen: CAQ has had momentum this entire election. Every week or few days they would take another point away from the PLQ, while the PQ has been stuck at 33% in the polls. The PQ has not run a stellar campaign, and the PLQ has run an even worse campaign. The CAQ has been the talk of the campaign, both positive and negative, but with such a focus on the CAQ, voters will have the party at the front of their minds when it comes time to vote.

Why I think this wont happen: Despite all the momentum, the CAQ came to a screeching halt once they hit 28% in the polls, and have not been able to move an inch since. This is worrying for any party with momentum as it is a signal that you either have lost it or are losing it. People want to trust the CAQ, but they are just not certain they can do so.

CAQ - 50 - 34.18% - Minority
PQ - 48 - 30.73%
PLQ - 24 - 24.13%
QS - 3 - 7.26%
ON - 0 - 2.19%
PVQ - 0 - 0.88%
Aut - 0 - 0.27%

(Aut stands for Autres, or, "Others" in French) 



Prévision des Election - PLQ Victory

What happens: Voters worried about the PQ winning and not comfortable with Legault and the CAQ, swing back to Charest and the PLQ.

Why I think this will happen: CAQ voters are very uncertain, and clearly, have been peeled away from those who wanted to vote PLQ earlier in the campaign. While Legault and the CAQ have run a good campaign, they have not been able to ally the fears of PLQ voters that the CAQ is just a different flavour of PQ.

Why I think this wont happen: People don't want to vote for Charest and the PLQ. The PLQ offers little in terms of positive rationale to support them and most of their election campaign has focused on the PQ and CAQ. The PLQ is seen as old, tired, and corrupt, and the chance of voters swinging back to the government in the face of "scary" opposition parties is not the same as in Alberta due to the fact that the PQ has been government multiple times, and the CAQ (formerly the ADQ) has held the official opposition in the past.

PLQ - 51 - 32.64% Minority
PQ - 50 - 32.05%
CAQ - 22 - 25.05%
QS - 2 - 6.68%
ON - 0 - 2.21%
PVQ - 0 - 1.11%
Aut - 0 - 0.26%

(Aut stands for Autres, or, "Others" in French) 



Prévision des Election - No Change (PQ Minority)

What happens: The polls are correct. Undecided voters do not break any differently than the polls show, or, stay home.

Why I think this will happen: PQ voters are more solid than PLQ and CAQ voters. In addition, the CAQ, which has had the momentum recently, has stalled and it's voters are uncertain. The CAQ and PLQ are both having difficulty moving from where they are stuck - around 27.5% in the polls each. One needs to overtake the other, but, neither appears able to do so.

Why I think this wont happen: Voters are uncomfortable with the PQ. The PLQ's second choice is the CAQ, and the CAQ's second choice is the PQ. Those voting for the QS and ON could vote for the PQ but have chosen not to, and the QS and ON are both doing better than expected. Marois' PQ is much more focused on Identity politics than past PQ parties, and this makes a for a much harder "edge" to the campaign and the party, one that should be enough to scare off voters.

PQ - 61 - 32.85% - Minority
CAQ - 31 - 38.54%
PLQ - 31 - 27.85%
QS - 2 - 7.18%
ON - 0 - 2.39%
PVQ - 0 - 0.98%
Aut - 0 - 0.21%

(Aut stands for Autres, or, "Others" in French)



Maps coming soon of the 4 possibilities in Quebec

For those wondering the 4 possibilities are:

Neutral - Things do not change, the PQ wins a large minority
CAQ - A swing to the CAQ
PLQ - A swing to the PLQ
PQ - Failure for one of the above results in a swing to the PQ

New poll

I don't have a link, but there is a new Leger poll out, showing the PQ at 33, the CAQ at 28, and the PLQ at 27

I will try to figure out what this means.