Sunday, September 2, 2012

Prévision des Election - PQ Majority

What happens: The Undecided voters are, in part, those undecided between the PQ, QS, and ON. They swing to the PQ. CAQ-PLQ undecideds stay home. 

Why I think this will happen: The PQ is, odds on, going to win the election. Yet, we've seen the rise of the QS and ON. The polls are still close with both the PLQ and CAQ within 6 points of the first placed PQ. There may be a rush, a minor one, among voters who dislike federalism to support the PQ to ensure there is no minority. 

Why I think this wont happen: Just as the CAQ appears "stuck" at a support ceiling, so does the PQ. With the PQ having ample opportunity to pull ahead of the other parties, they've yet failed to do so. I think that it is clear, from this, that voters just do not trust Marois. They see her as the female version of Parizeau, when what they really want is another Bouchard.

PQ - 70 - 36.13% - Majority
PLQ - 28 - 27.61%
CAQ - 25 - 28.44%
QS - 2 - 5.73%
ON - 0 - 1.02%
PVQ - 0 - 0.79%
Aut - 0 - 0.28%

(Aut stands for Autres, or, "Others" in French) 




Coupon Cor said...

you have no idea how I hope you are wrong! (no offense)

Coupon Cor said...

Anything but a PQ majority and there remains hope....