Sunday, September 2, 2012

Prévision des Election - CAQ Victory

What happens: CAQ picks up the undecided voters as votes decided they do not want either the PQ or the PLQ.

Why I think this will happen: CAQ has had momentum this entire election. Every week or few days they would take another point away from the PLQ, while the PQ has been stuck at 33% in the polls. The PQ has not run a stellar campaign, and the PLQ has run an even worse campaign. The CAQ has been the talk of the campaign, both positive and negative, but with such a focus on the CAQ, voters will have the party at the front of their minds when it comes time to vote.

Why I think this wont happen: Despite all the momentum, the CAQ came to a screeching halt once they hit 28% in the polls, and have not been able to move an inch since. This is worrying for any party with momentum as it is a signal that you either have lost it or are losing it. People want to trust the CAQ, but they are just not certain they can do so.

CAQ - 50 - 34.18% - Minority
PQ - 48 - 30.73%
PLQ - 24 - 24.13%
QS - 3 - 7.26%
ON - 0 - 2.19%
PVQ - 0 - 0.88%
Aut - 0 - 0.27%

(Aut stands for Autres, or, "Others" in French) 



No comments: