Saturday, August 25, 2012

In the provinces

Quebec, as it is having an election, will not be in this update.


The NDP members have settled in to their more visible role here, but the Liberals have yet to fail at the official opposition. Polls taken since the last election show the NDP up, but also, the Liberals either maintaining their vote, or up themselves. The most recent poll in fact shows the NDP in the lead. My projection for "where things really stand" is 40PC - 30N - 20L This would be enough for the NDP to win Burin, and Saint Johns West, which might not sound like much, but is enough to push them into the Official Opposition.

Prince Edward Island

I lived here for a decade and even ran for office here. With a 5 member opposition, at least the Government is being held accountable by someone. PEI has a terrible history of 1 or 2 member oppositions (or 0 member even). I'd even say that a 3 member opposition in the 27 member house is not enough. A 3 member opposition means 1 opposition member for every 8 government members. 4 members pushes that number down to 6, and that is rounding up. My personal feeling is that 1-to-7 is the lowest you can go and still retain an effective opposition. Regardless, the only report here is "No Changes", the Liberals retain their majority.

Nova Scotia

The next province over is Nova Scotia, where the NDP holds a majority. Not much has changed in the legislature since my last update which was on the Blunt Objects blog The most recent poll shows the NDP down 10 points from the last election, but, a poll over a year ago had the same results and the NDP bounced right back. Both the Liberals and Tories are bouncing about in the polls as well, making it difficult to tell exactly what is going on. The only thing that is clear to me is that the NDP has lost some ground, likely settling at 40% right now, while the Liberals are closer to 30 as I see it, and the PC Party closer to 27. The Tories, having more close second place finishes to the NDP last time, would see the most gain out of this, and would take enough seats to push the NDP into a minority, and themselves into the official opposition. 

New Brunswick

All three parties here are in a depressed state. The NDP lost a by-election they put all their eggs in to a few months ago, and the Liberals are still shopping around for a leader. The Governing Tories are down in the polls meanwhile, Polls show the NDP vote doubling, and they could win them a few seats, but with the concentration pattern of the NDP vote, even 20% on e-day may only mean 4 seats. More details to come later as NB is far too complex to make a simple projection. 

British Columbia

Off to the other coast to tell me what you already know, as the state of things has not changed much since the BC By-Elections. The NDP is far out in the lead and will likely take all but a dozen ridings in the next election unless the polls change. The Greens have been displaced as the 3rd party by the Conservatives, who manage to stick a few points behind the Liberals, who can not seem to break out of the 20s.


With an election so recent, there really is not much I can say here that is of any use whatsoever.


The Saskatchewan Party retains their huge lead that they won in the 2011 election, and beyond that, there is nothing to say here either.


Rounding out politics on the quiet prairie is Manitoba, where again, not enough has changed since the 2011 election to provoke any comment. 


Heading up north to the Yukon we find the same as we do in the rest of the west, not much to comment on.

The Senate

Those who follow me know that I like to take a look at the Senate during these updates. Current party standings have the Tories at 59, the Liberals at 40, and 3 official Independents - though at least one claims to be a member of a party that has not existed for nearly a decade.

There are currently 5 vacancies in the Senate, 2 in Ontario, and 1 in each of Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia.

By the middle of November, there will be additional vacancies in Newfoundland, Saskatchewan, and British Columbia. Perhaps we are headed for a Senate election? Perhaps not.


And now what you've all been waiting for, but, I'm afraid to tell you, you have to wait some more. What's been going on in Ontario is large enough for it's own post, and thus, it will have one, independent of this post. 

Updated Projection

First I want to address why I'm updating a projection from less than an hour ago. The answer is twofold.

1 - Follow your gut.
This most recent Leger poll has results that match my gut feeling about the election. I've learned not only to trust my riding numbers (IE they say Hull might vote PQ, so, Hull might vote PQ) but I've also learned when "poll averaging" to follow my gut far more than the math. My gut tells me that the CAQ is stealing PLQ votes, and this poll confirms that this is indeed the case among Francophones.

2 - Regional Breakdowns.
A rush to get a projection out means no focus on the various regional breakdowns. The regional breakdowns on this poll got heavy weight for a few reasons. First of all, the CAQ breakdown identically matches that of the ADQ at these levels, and this leads me to believe that old ADQ voters are ready to go CAQ without much of a change. Secondly, these regionals represent a huge change from past polls, a change I'm willing to trust for reasons listed above. Lastly, this is a Leger poll, and Leger, from my experience, is the most accurate pollster on the Quebec scene.

The major changes are the around 20% of Liberal votes in rural Quebec are heading over to the CAQ, and, at least 10% are doing the same in Quebec City. Of note, if these numbers hold, the QS will hold the balance of power. The prospect of that brings me an interesting sort of joy.

55 #PQ | 39 #PLQ | 27 #CAQ | 4 #QS

New projection!!