Saturday, August 25, 2012

Updated Projection

First I want to address why I'm updating a projection from less than an hour ago. The answer is twofold.

1 - Follow your gut.
This most recent Leger poll has results that match my gut feeling about the election. I've learned not only to trust my riding numbers (IE they say Hull might vote PQ, so, Hull might vote PQ) but I've also learned when "poll averaging" to follow my gut far more than the math. My gut tells me that the CAQ is stealing PLQ votes, and this poll confirms that this is indeed the case among Francophones.

2 - Regional Breakdowns.
A rush to get a projection out means no focus on the various regional breakdowns. The regional breakdowns on this poll got heavy weight for a few reasons. First of all, the CAQ breakdown identically matches that of the ADQ at these levels, and this leads me to believe that old ADQ voters are ready to go CAQ without much of a change. Secondly, these regionals represent a huge change from past polls, a change I'm willing to trust for reasons listed above. Lastly, this is a Leger poll, and Leger, from my experience, is the most accurate pollster on the Quebec scene.

The major changes are the around 20% of Liberal votes in rural Quebec are heading over to the CAQ, and, at least 10% are doing the same in Quebec City. Of note, if these numbers hold, the QS will hold the balance of power. The prospect of that brings me an interesting sort of joy.

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