Sunday, October 11, 2009

Alberta Polls


A recent poll was taken of provincial parties in Alberta, asking which party people would vote for if an election was held today. Here were the results:

Progressive Conservative: 38.4%
Wildrose Alliance: 21.5%
Alberta Liberal: 20.5%
NDP: 10.7%
Other: 8.5%

But what would all this mean as seats? Here is a rough translation:

PC - 64
Lib - 9
WAP - 6
NDP - 4

Why would be PC Party remain so strong?
Well, for one thing, the decrease in the PC vote from the election to today (about 75%) is the same as the decrease in the Liberal vote. That means in any one-on-one contest between the two parties, the winner last time should win this time. The NDP is up, but their results last time were too spread out to win more than 4 seats. The Wildrose Alliance, meanwhile, is up 3 fold. Despite that, there are only 6 ridings I could find where the Alliance result last time could beat the PC result, even with a 3x inflation, and even with the Tories fighting at 3/4th strength. This should, however, put the WAP in second place in a clear majority of ridings all across the province, with the exception of Edmonton and parts of Calgary.

Sorry, no extra data today!


Travis Chase said...

I am interested to think what the other 4 seats are other then Cardston-Taber-Warner and Calgary-Glenmore

nixtuff said...

Glenmore is actually NOT on the list. Again, this is a rough translation. The 6 are:

Calgary West
Calgary North West
Whitecourt-Ste. Anne
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills
Dunvegan-Central Peace

nixtuff said...

Travis Chase. I just noticed you are a two time candidate for the Alliance!

Tell you what. Just for you (I've run in elections before, so I know what it's like) I will build, from scratch mind you, an entire "Alberta ElectoMatic" and will have for you real, not rough, results.

nixtuff said...

Alright, here are the results. Note that I attached a trendline here, IE the Alliance is over performing the poll and the PC under performing.

PC - 47 - 37% pop vote
WAP - 25 - 26%
Lib - 7 - 21%
NDP - 4 - 13%

Bonnyville-Cold Lake
Calgary Egmont
Calgary Lougheed
Calgary Mackay
Calgary North West
Calgary Nose Hill
Calgary West
Dunvegan-Central Peace
Edmonton Ellerslie
Foothills-Rocky View
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
Lac La Biche-St. Paul
Lesser Slave Lake
Lethbridge East
Little Bow
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills
Red Deer North
Red Deer South
Stony Plain
Whitecourt-Ste. Anne

Projection for
Calgary Fort
PC - 3,322
WAP - 2,134
Lib - 1,429
NDP - 1,114