Tuesday, October 20, 2009

By popular demand, Riding by riding

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What you see above you recognize, this is the standard posting we make, showing the province by province results. What you might not know is that with each and every projection, our system, the ElectoMatic, projects each and every riding. I've had a request to show some of these, so I decided to show them all. Below the fold is our current riding by riding projections, based on the most recent polling data, for all 308 ridings across the country.

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3 comments:

Top Can Inc. said...

Thank You!!

Top Can Inc. said...

Just curious, but you indicated the Tories will win Don Valley West, Eglinton, and York Centre. By that logic, that means that high profile names like Joe Volpe and Ken Dryden are going down to defeat. Is that even possible?

nixtuff said...

As I said on another blog

"Oh thank you! I use math to make all my projections. Where there are no special circumstances (Portneuf for example) I rely 100% on the math to tell me who is going to win. The same formulas told me the Tories were winning 10 seats in Quebec in 2006, and the NDP was winning record breaking numbers in Ontario in 2008. Both projections defied logic at the time, but both turned out to be true. I've learned to trust the math even when I think it might look a bit weird."

The math is sound, and has successfully projected the downfall of other big names. The inspiration for me to start this blog was my 2006 projection, which never went online fully. No matter how I worked the numbers, they told me the Tories were taking 10 seats in Quebec. If you remember back to this time, this is when people thought such a thing would be impossible. I vacillated on what my "official" projection would be for quite a while. Eventually I said that I have a dozen polls all showing the Tories at 20%+ in the province. This cannot be a fluke. Beyond that, the votes must come from somewhere, and to think they'd all magically stack in a few ridings, or, spread out evenly just did not fly. Hence I went with 10. No one was more shocked than I was when this is the number they returned.

I had a similar problem with the NDP's strength in Northern Ontario last time, but decided to side with my numbers, and again they were right.

I think that this will be my little issue this time, Toronto Tories. I've checked and re-checked the math, and it is all fully sound. With these polling numbers, yes, Volpe and Dryden will be out of the job.