It’s the end of the first week of the election campaign, and something that was unthinkable only a week ago has happened, at least according to our projections. The Tories are set to win a Majority Government.
Beyond this (which should be coming more clear for the poll-watchers) we have other things we are keeping our eye on.
Gilles Duceppe might be in trouble in his own riding, especially if voters start to associate him with the Bloc's slide. Our numbers put the NDP 5 points behind the Bloc leader in his own riding.
The NDP walks away with 3 seats from Quebec. Outremont and Hull (which they win purely on the numbers, despite having two star candidates here) as well as Westmount.
Ignatieff is knocked out of his own seat as the Tories pick up their first Toronto seat. This is by a wide margin.
The Liberals are shut out of Manitoba
The Tories are shut out of Nova Scotia
On the island of Montreal, the ridings of Lac-Saint-Louis and Peirrefonds-Dollard are threatening to go Tory blue.
The Tories are poised to win 23 seats in Quebec. The numbers alone show them winning 21, with Shefford and Gatineau being a 3-way race. We believe that enough Liberals will vote Tory in election day to defeat the Bloc.
Our polling “work sheet” and more riding-by-riding projections will be put up on our forum shortly.