Saturday, September 12, 2009


As recently reported by fellow projection blog, Three Hundred Eight, it is possible to take recent polls and show maximum and minimum levels of support. We've decided to take that one step further and go for broke, by expanding this and throwing it into the ElectoMatic.

First, we start with the Green Party. If every other party had their worst election projectable at this time, the Greens would walk away with 14 seats and 18.3% of the vote. This is, of course, a radical extreme, but still worth discussing. Which 14 ridings would they win? Central Nova, Fredericton, Owen Sound, Guelph, Brandon-Souris, Winnipeg Centre, and 8 seat from BC; Vancouver Centre, Kelowna, Nanaimo, the other Nanaimo, North Okanagan, Saanich, Victoria, and West Vancouver. Of course that's not going to happen unless we see some kind of unexplaniable change.

What about the Bloc, what if they maxed out? They would win a whopping 61 seats, and take over half the vote in the province. The Tories would be left with Beauce, and the Liberals would only take Hull and 12 Montreal ridings.

What if the NDP maxed out? They could displace the Bloc, but would fail to take the official opposition. They would take 66 seats. They'd gain only one seat in Newfoundland, but would sweep all 11 Nova Scotia ridings; take 19 in Ontario, 5 in Manitoba, 7 in Saskatchewan, 2 in Edmonton, and 16 in BC.

What if the Liberals maxed out, would they win a majority? Yes, with 165 seats.

And the Tories? 188 seats.

I will be using some of these numbers and our trendlines and baselines in application with riding results to project ridings that we already know at this time are "solid" for one or another party. Expect these results in the not too distant future.

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