There are a few things to note here. First, the PQ is not rising, in fact, they are falling, or at least, are stuck. Secondly, in the past both the PLQ and ADQ have been able to outperform the polls. Third, the CAQ clearly has the momentum and is on the move. These things combine to tell me that the final result will have the PQ lower than expected and the CAQ higher, confirming my trendline.
Next, another note is that the CAQ vote is becoming much more efficient. Their regional splits have settled down and they are no longer whompping in the Capitale-Nationale (Quebec City area) but rather only winning by a large margin, they also are down on the Island of Montreal. Without these two areas sucking up votes, there are votes in the Rest of Quebec that are going CAQ. This might be a bit confusing so here is what I mean.
Last election there were 3.3 million voters in Quebec. 30% of that is about a million votes. I expect the CAQ right now is sitting on 30%, or, a million votes. In 2007, when the ADQ did very well, they took 122,000 votes on the Island of Montreal. Lets presume for a moment that the CAQ is sitting on 122,000 votes on the Island of Montreal. That means that there are 878,000 votes going CAQ elsewhere in Quebec. If the CAQ, however, is sitting on 200,000 votes on the Island of Montreal, that means there are only 800,000 CAQ votes elsewhere in Quebec, meaning they will win less ridings in these areas and more on Montreal; but with the CAQ/ADQ doing so poorly on the Island of Montreal, 122,000 votes or 200,000 votes both mean 0 seats; thus the total seats won by the CAQ is lower.
This all changes, however, if the CAQ can concentrate their Montreal vote in a particular area, say, in Anglophone ridings.
Regardless, as usual:
Map!
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