As usual, many projections here at RxR don't contain an endless stream of words. We like to jump straight to the numbers and the maps.
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Projection Update
As usual, many projections here at RxR don't contain an endless stream of words. We like to jump straight to the numbers and the maps.
Fun polling numbers
I've gone though Leger polls since the CAQ was created to come up with some interesting numbers. First off, you might ask, why Leger? The answer is simple really, they've been polling Quebec for many decades, and, they poll much more often and consistently than other firms.
The highest and lowest for each party.
Quebec wide
PLQ - 33 - 22
PQ - 33 - 21
CAQ - 37 - 19
Montreal Area
PLQ - 35 - 21
PQ - 34 - 16
CAQ - 34 - 17
Quebec City Area
PLQ - 38 - 22
PQ - 33 - 14
CAQ - 46 - 24
Rest of Quebec
PLQ - 31 - 17
PQ - 41 - 19
CAQ - 43 - 20
I will be doing things with these numbers a bit later.
The highest and lowest for each party.
Quebec wide
PLQ - 33 - 22
PQ - 33 - 21
CAQ - 37 - 19
Montreal Area
PLQ - 35 - 21
PQ - 34 - 16
CAQ - 34 - 17
Quebec City Area
PLQ - 38 - 22
PQ - 33 - 14
CAQ - 46 - 24
Rest of Quebec
PLQ - 31 - 17
PQ - 41 - 19
CAQ - 43 - 20
I will be doing things with these numbers a bit later.
One Free ElectoMatic
As my old-time followers will know, I use a self built spreadsheet program called the ElectoMatic to project elections. My old-time followers will also know that I decided to give out this program for free. Anyone looking for the current Quebec one can find it here (along with a sneak peak at my current projection - which changes sometimes hourly)
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?gs8ww8789ddffxr
I've made it somewhat user-friendly, but remember too that I've been tinkering with this file multiple times a day, and all the various random calculations on it might not make much sense.
My new followers might wonder why they need to follow me if they have the magic machine I use to project all my numbers. The answer to that is simple really. Anyone can have a math-based projection, but not many have accurate math-based projections.
http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2011/05/predicting-unexpected.html
My projections (2011 sadly was on my website that now is owned by an adult company selling... toys) were #1 of anyone offering individual riding by riding projections. Why? I deviated from the math and used my gut.
My gut, sadly, is not available. Knowing where and how to make additions, and what other calculations to make (for example, I don't think anyone out there agrees on a single ADQ-to-CAQ calculation regimen) is the key to making everything work.
The base program will always be free, but the analysis and "Teddy Touch" will always be confined to my blog. Though the program is free, I ask that anyone using it to make projections mention me and this blog. You don't have to do so for every last projection you make, but 2 or 3 times during a writ period would be greatly appreciated.
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?gs8ww8789ddffxr
I've made it somewhat user-friendly, but remember too that I've been tinkering with this file multiple times a day, and all the various random calculations on it might not make much sense.
My new followers might wonder why they need to follow me if they have the magic machine I use to project all my numbers. The answer to that is simple really. Anyone can have a math-based projection, but not many have accurate math-based projections.
http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2011/05/predicting-unexpected.html
My projections (2011 sadly was on my website that now is owned by an adult company selling... toys) were #1 of anyone offering individual riding by riding projections. Why? I deviated from the math and used my gut.
My gut, sadly, is not available. Knowing where and how to make additions, and what other calculations to make (for example, I don't think anyone out there agrees on a single ADQ-to-CAQ calculation regimen) is the key to making everything work.
The base program will always be free, but the analysis and "Teddy Touch" will always be confined to my blog. Though the program is free, I ask that anyone using it to make projections mention me and this blog. You don't have to do so for every last projection you make, but 2 or 3 times during a writ period would be greatly appreciated.
PQ facing mortal damage?
As promised.
Here is the news from this projection.
First off, Charest is now winning his seat. First time since the election started. As I suspected, if he wins the election, he will win his seat, but if he does not win the election, he will lose his seat.
Secondly, the Greens are doing god awful.
Other things: Aussant is back in second according to my numbers in his riding.
The QS is projected to win 4 seats in Montreal again. I had them at 4 earlier on in the campaign, and suspect they may indeed win 4 or more. Note their close second in Hochelaga.
This projection puts the Liberals in first in terms of seats, 55 to 44 for the PQ. The CAQ is stuck with only 22. What is important however is the very small gap in popular vote.
It has always been suspected that the PQ could win tie with the Liberals in the vote and still win more seats. In fact, this has always been the case historically. However, and this is HUGE news, according to these numbers, the PQ has lost that advantage. Again, in French, PQ a perdu son avantage naturel. A égalité de voix signifie maintenant PLQ victoire, pas PQ victoire. Ce sont des nouvelles énorme! Vous l'avez entendu ici en premier!
How this happened can be questioned, but in short, it seems a combo of the CAQ, QS, and ON. The only other election with a strong CAQ-like party, did see the PQ fall to 3rd place, so it may just be the case that whenever the CAQ/ADQ does well, the PQ loses that advantage.
Regardless, here are all the numbers for you all to enjoy!
Projection, Twitter, and Francais
Want a sneak peak at the next Quebec projection? Check out my twitter feed at
http://twitter.com/thenewteddy
Also note that a projection is coming up shortly.
Lastly, note that I do not speak French very well at all. I often say the following: Je suis la Parle Francais Tres Tres Petite which seems to get the point across rather well.
Les chiffres ne parlent pas le français ou l'anglais.
Pour de meilleurs chiffres (et des cartes!) Viennent ici!
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
How'm I doin?
Ever wonder how accurate this crazy guy running this blog actually is? Let's find out.
http://www.threehundredeight.com/2012/08/tight-race-in-nicolet-becancour-and.html has a wonderful post about riding polls. Let's compare these to the projections that I have.
Trois Rivieres
What I had VS what the poll had
30 - PLQ - 30
35 - PQ - 36
27 - CAQ - 19
The race, which is between the top two, is nearly identical to what I had.
Nicolet Becancour
19 - PLQ - 16
21 - PQ - 25
32 - CAQ - 31
28 - ON - 28
Again, the top two match my numbers.
So, if I may say so myself, I'm doing pretty darn good.
Current Projection
My projections seem to change hourly due to new data. Regardless, I've decided to share what I have at the moment.
Monday, August 20, 2012
Equalization
An interesting article
http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Politics/2012/08/17/20113821.html
Quebec, this year, will pay apx 3 billion into Equalization (Federal tax dollars remember) and receive apx 7.5 billion.
More on this later (perhaps much later).
Sunday, August 19, 2012
Quebec Debate and Projection
I'll be brief. Who won? David. Who lost? Legault.
Projection based on my interpretation of the results of the debate:
My feelings in short (more detail in a post in an hour or two)
Charest: As I suspected, nothing he did or would do mattered.
Marois: She really did well, she looked most like a Premier IMO, and has solidified her party's lead.
Legault: Too aggressive, everyone wanted to tear a strip off him, he looked unready.
David: Extremely strong performance. QS may be back on track for more than 2 seats.
Projection based on my interpretation of the results of the debate:
Charest: As I suspected, nothing he did or would do mattered.
Marois: She really did well, she looked most like a Premier IMO, and has solidified her party's lead.
Legault: Too aggressive, everyone wanted to tear a strip off him, he looked unready.
David: Extremely strong performance. QS may be back on track for more than 2 seats.
FULL ANNOUNCEMENT
Alright, after some testing, I've been able to get the old blog working once more! This post will be somewhat short and include three sections. The first, a self explanatory section that will include these words I am typing right now. The second will be a link to a project I've been slowly working on. The last, my projection for the Quebec Election. I also want to say hello to anyone following from our sister blog at http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/ where I've been ranting from time to time.
Next, on to my project. I've been working on this for some months, though slowly. It is a wiki to compliment this blog. http://ridingbyriding.wikia.com/wiki/Ridingbyriding_Wiki I will be putting real-life election data, and, fictional what-if stories here. I will also have it set up so my most recent projections are easily visible. You will also find attached a forum, where I will from time to time run games or interesting thought experiments.
Lastly, my Quebec Projection.
For more details, visit the aforementioned Blunt-Objects.
The return of RxR
Hello folks. I've decided to return this old blog to it's former glory! Many of you already know that prior to the 2011 Federal election, I got my own website, www.ridingbyriding.ca and moved everything over there. Many of you also know that following the election I ran into financial difficulties and was unable to pay the bills on the site.
The 2011 Federal election was a mixed bag for me. Of anyone who attempted a riding-by-riding projection, I was closer to the actual results than anyone else. In effect, I "won". Despite that, my daily unique readership never peaked beyond 30 (Except for the few days right around E-Day of course) and that put me into a slump and depression.
I've since come to realize that I don't really care who reads my stuff, so long as my numbers are as correct as I can make them.
Therefore, this blog will be returning to regular activity!
~Teddy
The 2011 Federal election was a mixed bag for me. Of anyone who attempted a riding-by-riding projection, I was closer to the actual results than anyone else. In effect, I "won". Despite that, my daily unique readership never peaked beyond 30 (Except for the few days right around E-Day of course) and that put me into a slump and depression.
I've since come to realize that I don't really care who reads my stuff, so long as my numbers are as correct as I can make them.
Therefore, this blog will be returning to regular activity!
~Teddy
Returning
RxR will be returning here.
<- Click here to see the full post Sorry, no extra data today!
<- Click here to see the full post Sorry, no extra data today!
Saturday, June 4, 2011
Friday, December 10, 2010
REMINDER
<- Click here to see the full postSorry, no extra data today!
Reminder, we've moved to: http://www.ridingbyriding.ca/
Reminder, we've moved to: http://www.ridingbyriding.ca/
Sunday, May 9, 2010
- Sorry, no extra data today!
POST DATE MAR 17
1 riding is mostly outside the new province but contains a small municipality within it (Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock)
3 ridings are split around half-half in terms of population (Dufferin-Caledon, York-Simcoe, Wellington-Halton Hills)
The Niagara and Hamilton regions have 7 ridings
Halton has 3, plus the Halton Hills
Peel has 8 plus Caldeon
York has 7 plus it's portion of York-Simcoe
Durham has 4, one shared with Toronto, and Brock
Toronto has 22 plus the one it shares with Durham.
This makes for 45 ridings completely within the new province plus the three "halfs" mentioned above, for a total of 46.5 ridings, rounded up to 47 (including Brock)
8 of the whole ridings have PC members. 8 have NDP members. 29 are Liberal. All of the half ridings are represented by the PC Party, making for an approximated legislature of:
30 Liberal
10 PC
7 NDP
The Remainder of Ontario would have:
42 Liberal
15 PC
3 NDP
Federally, the new province would have the following representation (using the same addition of half members)
25 Lib
16 CPC
6 NDP
POST DATE MAR 17
1 riding is mostly outside the new province but contains a small municipality within it (Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock)
3 ridings are split around half-half in terms of population (Dufferin-Caledon, York-Simcoe, Wellington-Halton Hills)
The Niagara and Hamilton regions have 7 ridings
Halton has 3, plus the Halton Hills
Peel has 8 plus Caldeon
York has 7 plus it's portion of York-Simcoe
Durham has 4, one shared with Toronto, and Brock
Toronto has 22 plus the one it shares with Durham.
This makes for 45 ridings completely within the new province plus the three "halfs" mentioned above, for a total of 46.5 ridings, rounded up to 47 (including Brock)
8 of the whole ridings have PC members. 8 have NDP members. 29 are Liberal. All of the half ridings are represented by the PC Party, making for an approximated legislature of:
30 Liberal
10 PC
7 NDP
The Remainder of Ontario would have:
42 Liberal
15 PC
3 NDP
Federally, the new province would have the following representation (using the same addition of half members)
25 Lib
16 CPC
6 NDP
- Sorry, no extra data today!
POST DATE MAR 17
http://www.toronto.ca/mayor_miller/spee ... speech.htm
11 billion dollars. That's the gap between what Toronto pays in taxes, and gets back in federal and provincial spending. At least it was in 2005.
Lets do some calculations.
The 2005 budget for Ontario had a 1.4 billion dollar deficit.
The 2005 budget was 82 billion dollars in revenue (and 83 in spending)
Canada's 2005 budget was 222 billion dollars in revenue, with a 13 billion dollar surplus (spending was at 209)
in 2006, Ontario had 38.9% of Canada's population. 222 X .389 = 86. and 209 X .389 = 81.
in 2005/2006 Ontario sent 23 billion dollars more to the federal government than they got back.
Logically, we can presume half of that is revenue and half is spending. Lets round down to 22 billion.
Therefore. Ontario sent 97 billion dollars to the feds, and got back 70 billion.
97 is 43.7% of 222, while 70 is 33.5% of 209.
97 + 82 = 179 while 70 + 83 = 153
Therefore, if Ontario were a country, in 2005, it would have had a surplus of 26 billion. This includes the 22 billion we sent to Ottawa, and our share of the 13 billion dollar federal surplus.
This year. Federal revenue is at 231 billion and spending at 281 billion.
231 X .437 is 101, while 281 X .335 = 94
Meaning that Ontario's share of the federal deficit is minus 7 billion dollars (IE we are in surplus)
Ontario's deficit this year is 25 billion.
I cannot find specific numbers for Ontario's revenues and exp. this year. however as seen in 2005 it is likely close to federal numbers. 85 in revenue and 110 in exp. is reasonable to expect.
Therefore, the total revenue and exp. of Ontario, if it were a country, would be 186 VS 204, or an 18 billion dollar deficit
Toronto, remember, has about 20% of Ontario's population
186 X 0.2 = 37 while 204 X 0.2 = 41
37 - 41 = -4
Toronto, remember, sends 11 billion dollars more to the government than it gets back.
-4 + 11 = 7
Therefore. Toronto's suprlus this year, if Toronto were a country, would be 7 billion dollars.
Now, it has been stated 1% sales taxes bring in $400 million a year in Toronto. The HST is being introduced at 13%.
0.400 X 13 = 5.200
7.000 - 5.200 = 1.800
Last year, Toronto's new and hated taxes brough in 46 million dollars. Lets round up to 50.
1.800 - 0.050 = 1.750
1.750 billion - 1,750 million
The TTC (Toronto Transit) budget was 1,400, total. That includes about 400 in city subsidy, leaving 1,000 unfunded
1,000 - 1,750 = 750
750 million = 750,000,000
Toronto has 2,500,000 citizens
750,000,000 / 2,500,000 = 300
300 dollars.
So, lets review.
If Toronto were it's own country, it would be in surplus this year (despite the recession, and the billions and billions in deficit we are in) and that surplus would be SO large, we could cancel the new hated taxes, end ALL sales taxes, and make the ENTIRE TTC free, as well as send a cheque for $300 to each person in Toronto.
I have sources for all the numbers I've presented if anyone needs them.
POST DATE MAR 17
http://www.toronto.ca/mayor_miller/spee ... speech.htm
11 billion dollars. That's the gap between what Toronto pays in taxes, and gets back in federal and provincial spending. At least it was in 2005.
Lets do some calculations.
The 2005 budget for Ontario had a 1.4 billion dollar deficit.
The 2005 budget was 82 billion dollars in revenue (and 83 in spending)
Canada's 2005 budget was 222 billion dollars in revenue, with a 13 billion dollar surplus (spending was at 209)
in 2006, Ontario had 38.9% of Canada's population. 222 X .389 = 86. and 209 X .389 = 81.
in 2005/2006 Ontario sent 23 billion dollars more to the federal government than they got back.
Logically, we can presume half of that is revenue and half is spending. Lets round down to 22 billion.
Therefore. Ontario sent 97 billion dollars to the feds, and got back 70 billion.
97 is 43.7% of 222, while 70 is 33.5% of 209.
97 + 82 = 179 while 70 + 83 = 153
Therefore, if Ontario were a country, in 2005, it would have had a surplus of 26 billion. This includes the 22 billion we sent to Ottawa, and our share of the 13 billion dollar federal surplus.
This year. Federal revenue is at 231 billion and spending at 281 billion.
231 X .437 is 101, while 281 X .335 = 94
Meaning that Ontario's share of the federal deficit is minus 7 billion dollars (IE we are in surplus)
Ontario's deficit this year is 25 billion.
I cannot find specific numbers for Ontario's revenues and exp. this year. however as seen in 2005 it is likely close to federal numbers. 85 in revenue and 110 in exp. is reasonable to expect.
Therefore, the total revenue and exp. of Ontario, if it were a country, would be 186 VS 204, or an 18 billion dollar deficit
Toronto, remember, has about 20% of Ontario's population
186 X 0.2 = 37 while 204 X 0.2 = 41
37 - 41 = -4
Toronto, remember, sends 11 billion dollars more to the government than it gets back.
-4 + 11 = 7
Therefore. Toronto's suprlus this year, if Toronto were a country, would be 7 billion dollars.
Now, it has been stated 1% sales taxes bring in $400 million a year in Toronto. The HST is being introduced at 13%.
0.400 X 13 = 5.200
7.000 - 5.200 = 1.800
Last year, Toronto's new and hated taxes brough in 46 million dollars. Lets round up to 50.
1.800 - 0.050 = 1.750
1.750 billion - 1,750 million
The TTC (Toronto Transit) budget was 1,400, total. That includes about 400 in city subsidy, leaving 1,000 unfunded
1,000 - 1,750 = 750
750 million = 750,000,000
Toronto has 2,500,000 citizens
750,000,000 / 2,500,000 = 300
300 dollars.
So, lets review.
If Toronto were it's own country, it would be in surplus this year (despite the recession, and the billions and billions in deficit we are in) and that surplus would be SO large, we could cancel the new hated taxes, end ALL sales taxes, and make the ENTIRE TTC free, as well as send a cheque for $300 to each person in Toronto.
I have sources for all the numbers I've presented if anyone needs them.
forum
- Sorry, no extra data today!
I'm moving over data from the forum.
POST DATE MAR 14
34% - PC
30% - WAP
23% - LIB
10% - NDP
From Environics, as per http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Torie ... story.html
I will be turning this into a projection tonight.
I'm moving over data from the forum.
POST DATE MAR 14
34% - PC
30% - WAP
23% - LIB
10% - NDP
From Environics, as per http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Torie ... story.html
I will be turning this into a projection tonight.
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
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