Wednesday, August 22, 2012

PQ facing mortal damage?

As promised.

Here is the news from this projection.
First off, Charest is now winning his seat. First time since the election started. As I suspected, if he wins the election, he will win his seat, but if he does not win the election, he will lose his seat.
Secondly, the Greens are doing god awful.
Other things: Aussant is back in second according to my numbers in his riding.
The QS is projected to win 4 seats in Montreal again. I had them at 4 earlier on in the campaign, and suspect they may indeed win 4 or more. Note their close second in Hochelaga.

This projection puts the Liberals in first in terms of seats, 55 to 44 for the PQ. The CAQ is stuck with only 22. What is important however is the very small gap in popular vote.

It has always been suspected that the PQ could win tie with the Liberals in the vote and still win more seats. In fact, this has always been the case historically. However, and this is HUGE news, according to these numbers, the PQ has lost that advantage. Again, in French, PQ a perdu son avantage naturel. A égalité de voix signifie maintenant PLQ victoire, pas PQ victoire. Ce sont des nouvelles énorme! Vous l'avez entendu ici en premier!

How this happened can be questioned, but in short, it seems a combo of the CAQ, QS, and ON. The only other election with a strong CAQ-like party, did see the PQ fall to 3rd place, so it may just be the case that whenever the CAQ/ADQ does well, the PQ loses that advantage.

Regardless, here are all the numbers for you all to enjoy!

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