Whether intentional or unintentional, our biases influence our work. I'd therefore like to explain where I stand in relation to the parties in Quebec.
I've never been a fan of the PQ. I've always felt they are a little bit racist. They think of the Quebecois as an ethnicity, "nous", while I, do not. I think of the Quebecois as no different than Acadians, a type of French who live in Canada. To me, Acadian and Quebecois are "Ethnically" French, as in France French, and the same applies to all French-Canadians. The PQ seems to think differently with relations to Quebecois. They seem to think of the Quebecois much as the Kurds do of themselves. Trying to argue that the Kurds should have more rights an an independent Kurdistan is something that many would support; but the Kurds are internationally recognized as an independent ethnic group, the Quebecois are not. For this reason I despise the current PQ, Marois, and the PQ campaign of identity politics. I consider their plan to restrict the rights of those who do not speak French as akin to ethnic cleansing. Perhaps not the same violence-based ethnic cleansing that has been seen in the Balkans, but much closer to the expulsion of the Acadians by the British in the 1700s. I honestly think that the PQ would be very very happy if every last Anglophone left Quebec, and that is a viewpoint that I find disgusting.
The QS is an interesting case for me. While I support an alternative to the PQ, I do not oppose sovereignty as an idea. In fact, I favour more provincial powers, and, support the right of Quebec to declare independence on 50%+1 of the vote in a referendum. The QS however is more than just another sovereigntist party, they are very radically left wing. I may be on the left of the spectrum on many issues, but I'm just not as left wing as the QS. For this reason, while I am quite happy to see them take seats away from the PQ in Montreal, I would be a little uncomfortable to see them become a large party.
The ON appeals to me. I've never seen anyone even bother to attempt to make the case for sovereignty until this video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fsIE63fP-4&feature=plcp
As mentioned above, I think that this argument is a strong one. Despite that, given the history of the PQ, this 25 second shaky video is still the single strongest argument ever made for Anglophones to vote OUI. I honestly think if the ON were to get into government and rule for 5 years, that Anglophones would actually be willing to vote OUI. The fear of PQ racism is what I think drives many Anglophones to go out in droves and vote against Separation. With the ON trying to prove that you can be a OUI voter and not a racist, they appeal to me.
The PLQ is tired and old, and Charest seems unwilling to think outside the box to change things. Don't get me wrong, I have great respect for Charest. In fact, the "Charest Liberal" is where I often sit politically. In the centre-right of economics but still Liberal. Charest has also been one of the luckiest politicians in the history of Canada. He avoided winning the 1993 PC leadership, and thus, avoided blame for the 1993 PC defeat. He brought the PC Party in 1997 back to life, and just before people started to seriously question a united right, was called away to Quebec. He lost the 1998 Quebec election, one that gave the PQ it's most unpopular term of office in over a decade, and when he finally won in 2003, it was with an ADQ that consisted of more than just one man, an alternative to the PQ. After a minority in 2007 that harmed the PQ more than the PLQ, Charest pulled a majority out of his hat in 2008. The magic has finally worn off. Corruption stains the government and Charest seems set to lose his seat and his job. The PLQ, frankly, does not deserve to be re-elected.
The CAQ is a merger of disaffected PQ and PLQ members with the old ADQ. I remember watching the 2007 election on my TV and getting to my feet, jumping in the air, clapping, and laughing, as the ADQ overtook the PLQ in terms of seats. It was not a reaction I expected from myself, but in hindsight, I was very happy to see someone, anyone, break the two party system that had existed since Levesque. Looking deep into the policies, I support the CAQ much more than I support the ADQ. If I was living in Quebec and someone gave me a ballot, telling me my riding was tied and my ballot was the deciding ballot, without question I'd vote CAQ.
So, how to counter all this bias? The first step, I think, is to be aware of it. I'm quite aware that I favour the CAQ over the PQ and it is part of what pains my thinking. Am I seeing a movement to the CAQ over the PQ because I want to, or, because the statistics back it up? That is a topic I will tackle in my next post.
Saturday, September 1, 2012
More thoughts.
My thoughts on this bloc of undecided voters is thus.
They will not stay home.
If they do, my projection is going to be way off, because if they do, the PQ wins a majority. I think, however, that there are enough people genuinely scared of a PQ government that they will be motivated, at minimum, to get off their bum and cast a ballot. The "problem" here is that some undecided voters may be PQ-QS-ON, and thus, this elimination may not work.
They will not split their vote.
I can't see such a large and consistent bloc of undecided voters deciding to split their vote between the parties. Normally, when undecided numbers fluctuate, it is more likely to see a split, but my experience has told me that a more consistent number, like that we've seen in this election, is more likely to have their votes swing towards one party much more than to another.
So will they go PLQ or CAQ?
I don't know. That is the last question that remains to be answered. That, as well as, how much of a swing to the party will there be? Too small, and the PQ wins.
They will not stay home.
If they do, my projection is going to be way off, because if they do, the PQ wins a majority. I think, however, that there are enough people genuinely scared of a PQ government that they will be motivated, at minimum, to get off their bum and cast a ballot. The "problem" here is that some undecided voters may be PQ-QS-ON, and thus, this elimination may not work.
They will not split their vote.
I can't see such a large and consistent bloc of undecided voters deciding to split their vote between the parties. Normally, when undecided numbers fluctuate, it is more likely to see a split, but my experience has told me that a more consistent number, like that we've seen in this election, is more likely to have their votes swing towards one party much more than to another.
So will they go PLQ or CAQ?
I don't know. That is the last question that remains to be answered. That, as well as, how much of a swing to the party will there be? Too small, and the PQ wins.
Deep in thought
I've been trying to figure out what all the undecided voters mean in this election. I have a few thoughts.
1 - They are PQ Voters scared to admit they are voting for the PQ because they see PQ policies as unpopular among some.
A: I do not think this is the case. PQ voters would not be afraid to standing up and admitting to be PQ voters.
2 - They are QS or ON voters who are not really sure they should actually back a smaller party.
A: Considering the modest jump the QS had after the debates and the ON after the Parizeau donation, I would think that they would have made up their minds by now.
3 - They are Liberals who are unhappy with Charest, but uncertain if they can trust Legault with their vote.
A: I think this is the case 100%. I do not think the PQ will get many of these undecided voters, I really think the PQ is about as high as it's going to go, and that unless the last few polls show momentum, the PQ will not do as well as the polls say they will.
This however raises the question: Where will the voters torn between the CAQ and PLQ go?
In the Federal election of 2011 we saw the same split in Quebec between the BQ and NDP. Voters at that time decided they could indeed trust Jack Layton and swung heavily to him.
In Alberta's recent provincial election, we saw the same split, this time, between the PC Party and Wildrose. Voters there decided they could not trust Wildrose, and swing heavily to the PC Party.
So where will voters swing? Will they head to the CAQ because they feel they can trust Legault? Will they swing back to the PLQ out of fear of Legault? And what if these voters fear a PQ majority, will they swing to the tried-and-tested PQ defeaters in the PLQ, or, to the party the polls say could defeat the PQ, the CAQ? Will these voters, alternatively, stay home, so upset that they have no positive choice, and thus allow the PQ to take an even larger share of the pie?
I don't know.
But I'm trying to figure it out. I welcome any and all feedback from all readers on this issue.
1 - They are PQ Voters scared to admit they are voting for the PQ because they see PQ policies as unpopular among some.
A: I do not think this is the case. PQ voters would not be afraid to standing up and admitting to be PQ voters.
2 - They are QS or ON voters who are not really sure they should actually back a smaller party.
A: Considering the modest jump the QS had after the debates and the ON after the Parizeau donation, I would think that they would have made up their minds by now.
3 - They are Liberals who are unhappy with Charest, but uncertain if they can trust Legault with their vote.
A: I think this is the case 100%. I do not think the PQ will get many of these undecided voters, I really think the PQ is about as high as it's going to go, and that unless the last few polls show momentum, the PQ will not do as well as the polls say they will.
This however raises the question: Where will the voters torn between the CAQ and PLQ go?
In the Federal election of 2011 we saw the same split in Quebec between the BQ and NDP. Voters at that time decided they could indeed trust Jack Layton and swung heavily to him.
In Alberta's recent provincial election, we saw the same split, this time, between the PC Party and Wildrose. Voters there decided they could not trust Wildrose, and swing heavily to the PC Party.
So where will voters swing? Will they head to the CAQ because they feel they can trust Legault? Will they swing back to the PLQ out of fear of Legault? And what if these voters fear a PQ majority, will they swing to the tried-and-tested PQ defeaters in the PLQ, or, to the party the polls say could defeat the PQ, the CAQ? Will these voters, alternatively, stay home, so upset that they have no positive choice, and thus allow the PQ to take an even larger share of the pie?
I don't know.
But I'm trying to figure it out. I welcome any and all feedback from all readers on this issue.
All Requests Answered... by someone else
This website
http://fed2012.pollmaps.ca/index.asp
Provides all the transpositions you'll ever need! Thanks to https://twitter.com/punditsguide for this amazing find!
http://fed2012.pollmaps.ca/index.asp
Provides all the transpositions you'll ever need! Thanks to https://twitter.com/punditsguide for this amazing find!
Friday, August 31, 2012
Que faire si: Gauche Droite division? / What if: Left Right split?
What if.
What if rather than a Federalist-Sovereigntist split, Quebec was split like most of the rest of the world, among right and left wing parties? What if the CAQ and QS were the only two parties to win seats? Unrealistic to the extreme, but very insightful!
What if rather than a Federalist-Sovereigntist split, Quebec was split like most of the rest of the world, among right and left wing parties? What if the CAQ and QS were the only two parties to win seats? Unrealistic to the extreme, but very insightful!
Que faire si: 5 Partis à 20%? / What if: 5 parties at 20%
What if.
What if the 5 parties with candidates in 'all' the ridings split the vote at 20% each, and no other votes are cast whatsoever. Not very realistic, but very intriguing! (A note of caution, the ON, with no vote history, will naturally as a result of a partly unreliable vote distribution and should be take with extreme caution)
What if the 5 parties with candidates in 'all' the ridings split the vote at 20% each, and no other votes are cast whatsoever. Not very realistic, but very intriguing! (A note of caution, the ON, with no vote history, will naturally as a result of a partly unreliable vote distribution and should be take with extreme caution)
Que faire si: 4 Partis à 25%? / What if: 4 parties at 25%
What if.
What if the 4 parties in the debate split the vote exactly at 25%, and nobody else received any votes at all across the province. Not very realistic, but fun to think about!
What if the 4 parties in the debate split the vote exactly at 25%, and nobody else received any votes at all across the province. Not very realistic, but fun to think about!
Que faire si: 3 Partis à 33%? / What if: 3 parties at 33%
What if.
What if each of the top three parties manages to tie at 33% of the vote each, and, no other party captures any votes at all. Not very realistic perhaps, but interesting to look at!
Prove you know what you are talking about
Okay, here: http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2011/05/predicting-unexpected.html
Two websites did "better" than me in terms of projecting the number of seats won, but none of them had riding by riding projections. Of anyone who dared to project every single individual riding, I was closer than anyone else.
Now this is, of course, 1 election out of many, and I have been "more wrong" than others before - this blog's own history will attest to that - but I want to ensure that people know I am not just some raving madman who does not know what he is talking about. I'm a raving madman who knows his stuff.
Two websites did "better" than me in terms of projecting the number of seats won, but none of them had riding by riding projections. Of anyone who dared to project every single individual riding, I was closer than anyone else.
Now this is, of course, 1 election out of many, and I have been "more wrong" than others before - this blog's own history will attest to that - but I want to ensure that people know I am not just some raving madman who does not know what he is talking about. I'm a raving madman who knows his stuff.
I may be 25% Québécois
My personal ethnic background has not really been much of a mystery to me until somewhat recently.
My father, also named Nick Boragina, was born in Italy, in particular, in Calabria. From what he tells me, the last name means "Bad Priest" and is 100% Italian.
My mother is Acadian. Her father, Sylvio Plourde, was born in Madawaska in New Brunswick. Her mother (RIP) Marie LeBlanc was born in Kent County in New Brunswick. Her grandmother was native, Mi'kmaq to be specific.
This was all nice and good until the past few years when I started doing some digging.
First, Boragina is not a popular last name whatsoever. It also seems to be spread around Italy. Considering what I've been told about the origin of the name, I have begun to suspect that it is a corruption of Borgia, the infamous middle-ages family that produced a number of popes. I thus, may be, part Spanish. Considering the age of these events, however, that "part" would be very minor.
What is more interesting to me is my grandfather. I can call him right now and ask (though he'll be upset I'm waking him in the middle of the night) but he will insist that he is Acadian. The "problem" is that my grandmother's sisters originally thought he was Quebecois because of his accent. As well there are a very limited number of Plourdes in New Brunswick, but a large number in Quebec. In addition, he was born suspiciously close to the Quebec border. Perhaps over a generation or two or three they became accepted as "Acadian" but in terms of "Ethnicity" - if you believe the Quebecois are an "Ethnicity" that is - it is very likely he is a Quebecois.
Thus I may be 25% Quebecois!
My father, also named Nick Boragina, was born in Italy, in particular, in Calabria. From what he tells me, the last name means "Bad Priest" and is 100% Italian.
My mother is Acadian. Her father, Sylvio Plourde, was born in Madawaska in New Brunswick. Her mother (RIP) Marie LeBlanc was born in Kent County in New Brunswick. Her grandmother was native, Mi'kmaq to be specific.
This was all nice and good until the past few years when I started doing some digging.
First, Boragina is not a popular last name whatsoever. It also seems to be spread around Italy. Considering what I've been told about the origin of the name, I have begun to suspect that it is a corruption of Borgia, the infamous middle-ages family that produced a number of popes. I thus, may be, part Spanish. Considering the age of these events, however, that "part" would be very minor.
What is more interesting to me is my grandfather. I can call him right now and ask (though he'll be upset I'm waking him in the middle of the night) but he will insist that he is Acadian. The "problem" is that my grandmother's sisters originally thought he was Quebecois because of his accent. As well there are a very limited number of Plourdes in New Brunswick, but a large number in Quebec. In addition, he was born suspiciously close to the Quebec border. Perhaps over a generation or two or three they became accepted as "Acadian" but in terms of "Ethnicity" - if you believe the Quebecois are an "Ethnicity" that is - it is very likely he is a Quebecois.
Thus I may be 25% Quebecois!
New Poll, New Numbers
Tweetline: #qc2012 Prévision des Election / Election Projection 51 #PQ | 40 #CAQ | 32 #PLQ | 2 #QS | 0 #ON http://riding-by-riding.blogspot.com/2012/08/new-poll-new-numbers.html
There are a few things to note here. First, the PQ is not rising, in fact, they are falling, or at least, are stuck. Secondly, in the past both the PLQ and ADQ have been able to outperform the polls. Third, the CAQ clearly has the momentum and is on the move. These things combine to tell me that the final result will have the PQ lower than expected and the CAQ higher, confirming my trendline.
Next, another note is that the CAQ vote is becoming much more efficient. Their regional splits have settled down and they are no longer whompping in the Capitale-Nationale (Quebec City area) but rather only winning by a large margin, they also are down on the Island of Montreal. Without these two areas sucking up votes, there are votes in the Rest of Quebec that are going CAQ. This might be a bit confusing so here is what I mean.
Last election there were 3.3 million voters in Quebec. 30% of that is about a million votes. I expect the CAQ right now is sitting on 30%, or, a million votes. In 2007, when the ADQ did very well, they took 122,000 votes on the Island of Montreal. Lets presume for a moment that the CAQ is sitting on 122,000 votes on the Island of Montreal. That means that there are 878,000 votes going CAQ elsewhere in Quebec. If the CAQ, however, is sitting on 200,000 votes on the Island of Montreal, that means there are only 800,000 CAQ votes elsewhere in Quebec, meaning they will win less ridings in these areas and more on Montreal; but with the CAQ/ADQ doing so poorly on the Island of Montreal, 122,000 votes or 200,000 votes both mean 0 seats; thus the total seats won by the CAQ is lower.
This all changes, however, if the CAQ can concentrate their Montreal vote in a particular area, say, in Anglophone ridings.
Regardless, as usual:
Map!
There are a few things to note here. First, the PQ is not rising, in fact, they are falling, or at least, are stuck. Secondly, in the past both the PLQ and ADQ have been able to outperform the polls. Third, the CAQ clearly has the momentum and is on the move. These things combine to tell me that the final result will have the PQ lower than expected and the CAQ higher, confirming my trendline.
Next, another note is that the CAQ vote is becoming much more efficient. Their regional splits have settled down and they are no longer whompping in the Capitale-Nationale (Quebec City area) but rather only winning by a large margin, they also are down on the Island of Montreal. Without these two areas sucking up votes, there are votes in the Rest of Quebec that are going CAQ. This might be a bit confusing so here is what I mean.
Last election there were 3.3 million voters in Quebec. 30% of that is about a million votes. I expect the CAQ right now is sitting on 30%, or, a million votes. In 2007, when the ADQ did very well, they took 122,000 votes on the Island of Montreal. Lets presume for a moment that the CAQ is sitting on 122,000 votes on the Island of Montreal. That means that there are 878,000 votes going CAQ elsewhere in Quebec. If the CAQ, however, is sitting on 200,000 votes on the Island of Montreal, that means there are only 800,000 CAQ votes elsewhere in Quebec, meaning they will win less ridings in these areas and more on Montreal; but with the CAQ/ADQ doing so poorly on the Island of Montreal, 122,000 votes or 200,000 votes both mean 0 seats; thus the total seats won by the CAQ is lower.
This all changes, however, if the CAQ can concentrate their Montreal vote in a particular area, say, in Anglophone ridings.
Regardless, as usual:
Map!
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Another Update
First off, I want to admit to an embarrassing error. I had La Prairie going CAQ while many others did not. The reason is that the data from La Prairie was being drawn from base data for the riding of La Peltrie. This has now been corrected.
I then added new trends to the polling.
I've also made more regional adjustments to better match the polls. The results of these changes are shown on the map.
Edit - I've also noticed that the ridings of La Peltrie and La Piniere are reversed on the map labels. The ridings are shown in their proper locations, and, with the proper colours, but the name label, is incorrect.
I then added new trends to the polling.
I've also made more regional adjustments to better match the polls. The results of these changes are shown on the map.
Edit - I've also noticed that the ridings of La Peltrie and La Piniere are reversed on the map labels. The ridings are shown in their proper locations, and, with the proper colours, but the name label, is incorrect.
Observations
Not as much going on today as I had hoped. The CAQ did a number of English media spots either today or last night that is getting them press. Sadly, not much else for me to comment on just yet.
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Poll based Projection
Tweetline: #qc2012 Prévision des Election / Election Projection Sur la base de sondages / Poll based: 68 #PQ | 31 #PLQ | 24 #CAQ | 2 #QS | 0 #ON
Note: this does not include the missing Forum poll
Note: this does not include the missing Forum poll
Schedule change
Due to the cat, I take the "night shift" and thus have been up all night. I was also hoping that the Forum poll would come out at midnight, and to be honest, I'm getting a bit tired of waiting, as there is no indication at what time today the poll will be out. 7:30am? 7:30pm? 11:59pm?
I'm thus more likely to head off to bed than I am to stay up longer and keep waiting; so if you don't see that dual update from me after the poll comes out, it is due to my sleeping, and the update will be posted once I wake up.
I'm thus more likely to head off to bed than I am to stay up longer and keep waiting; so if you don't see that dual update from me after the poll comes out, it is due to my sleeping, and the update will be posted once I wake up.
Schedule
Here is a tentative schedule until E-day in Ontario's By-Elections and after.
Today, August 29th
Once the new Forum poll is out - and I expect that just about any minute now - I will make a projection update including a map. I will also show the difference between my trendline+gut based projection and the poll-only based projection using poll averages. The formula for the latter is the most recent poll from CROP, Leger, and Forum are averaged out, and, the second most recent from each of those three are averaged as well, given half the weight, and averaged with the more recent polls. Maps will be produced for both projections. I will also try to finish more of those Requests.
Today, August 29th
Once the new Forum poll is out - and I expect that just about any minute now - I will make a projection update including a map. I will also show the difference between my trendline+gut based projection and the poll-only based projection using poll averages. The formula for the latter is the most recent poll from CROP, Leger, and Forum are averaged out, and, the second most recent from each of those three are averaged as well, given half the weight, and averaged with the more recent polls. Maps will be produced for both projections. I will also try to finish more of those Requests.
Thursday, August 30th
Could be a big turning-point day for the CAQ if they are to take over for the PLQ, or, give versa. Could be a big turning point day for the PQ if they are to slip and fall. I will keep an eye on the media and try to figure out where things are going by the number and tone of positive and negative stories. I will make a projection update regardless of weather or not I have new data. I hopefully will have all the requests done by this point.
Friday, August 31st
I suspect the media will be jam packed with stories. I may well pick out a few, especially opinion pieces, and explain why I feel they are right or wrong. I will make a projection update regardless of weather or not I have new data.
Saturday, September 1st
My suspicion is that on this day a few polls may come out, but that at least one will be due. This will help me refine my projection methods for the final time as I prepare for the big day. I will also discuss how "We got here" from today, despite the fact this is only a few days away. I will make a projection update regardless of weather or not I have new data.
Sunday, September 2nd
I have a strong feeling I wont have much related to the election to talk about. If this is the case, I will examine other issues (such as a possible projection in another province) and possibly look overseas. I do not forsee any projection update unless a new poll is out.
Monday, September 3rd (Labour Day)
We find out who "Liberal Who" is, and I find out how wrong my guess is. One interesting theory from our friends over at Blunt Objects is that it may be an NDP ploy! Pundits guide presents reasons why it could well be David Merner. Throughout the day expect a number of projections from me, including a "penultimate" one late into the evening. During the day I will examine the highest and lowest that all 6 parties can go, and show the difference between the trendline projection, the poll-only projection, and what my gut says. I will also detail which of those three I'm going with and why.
Tuesday, September 4th
E-Day. Final riding by riding projection will be up by 9am at the latest, and polls open at 9:30. Posts during the day itself may be sparse so that I can stay up all night if need be! The results will be liveblogged, with focus away from the numbers; you can find those in dozens of places, but what I will be providing, is analysis.
Wednesday, September 5th
Most of this day will be spent sleeping likely (recovery from the election night, if it goes on long enough)
In the AM to early PM hours, we will examine "what happened" and "why"
If there is time in the late PM, we will start the discussion on the coming Ontario by-elections
Thursday, September 6th
The focus of discussion on this day will be the Ontario by-elections in Kitchener-Waterloo and in Vaughan. While I can see Vaughan from my roomate's bedroom window, I have not been involved in these by-elections whatsoever and therefore will have no projections, but, will discuss "chances" and polls and anything else relevant. The results will be liveblogged, with a focus on the numbers.
Friday, September 7th
I have an appointment on this day, and it seems like a good day for a break. I try to make at least 1 post every day, but Friday's post will either be short, or, be about an idea that strikes me.
Saturday, September 8th (and onward)
Normalcy. You can expect an average of 1.5 posts a day starting here and in to the future, with the numbers dropping when Parliament is out to around 1 a day, and raising to 2 (AM and PM) when Parliament is in.
A note of caution.
I have two kitty cats, little Scout and little Boo.
Little Boo is ill, and has a feeding tube. From time to time, without much warning, he requires our attention, and sometimes, even an emergency ride to the vet. I will try my best to stick to this schedule, but there may be times when I can not.
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
August 28th Projection
Tweetline: 63 #PQ | 32 #CAQ | 27 #PLQ | 2 #QS | 1 #ON | http://bit.ly/QsbZDD | #qc2012 Prévision des Election / Election Projection
I've further updated the numbers to match the trendlines. This means that the CAQ is higher in this projection than they are in the polls, while the PLQ is lower, and the PQ is stable, but, slightly lower as well. The expected trend is the CAQ will pick up steam.
I've further updated the numbers to match the trendlines. This means that the CAQ is higher in this projection than they are in the polls, while the PLQ is lower, and the PQ is stable, but, slightly lower as well. The expected trend is the CAQ will pick up steam.
Quick Projection --- 67 #PQ --- 28 #CAQ --- 27 #PLQ
As it says on the tin.
Riding by Riding numbers and a new map will be out in the morning!
Riding by Riding numbers and a new map will be out in the morning!
Monday, August 27, 2012
New Ontario Ridings
Proposal is up!
Thoughts:
The NDP will suffer as a result of these new boundaries. Oshawa in particular appears to have been gerrymandered.
Haliburton-Uxbridge is the most terrible suggestion for a riding I've ever seen. It is in fact SO bad, I will personally make a presentation to the commission to let them know.
Toronto North should provide the CPC with a constant seat in Toronto
New Ottawa ridings are flawless IMO, and "perfect".
Kitchener South very strangely shaped, but unavoidable.
Hamilton gets new riding, exactly where it needs one.
Woodbridge, Unionville, Mount Pleasent, all ridings that need a closer look (by me to see what they mean)
Mississauga Centre should be good for the Liberals
Bradford and Georgina, as growing areas, should not be in the same riding.
Splitting Barrie a good idea. Barrie South will likely need to shrink in 2021 due to population growth.
More to come later (as in, maybe a day or a week or a month)
PS. and no, I do not detect any "Gerrymandering" outside of Oshawa.
Thoughts:
The NDP will suffer as a result of these new boundaries. Oshawa in particular appears to have been gerrymandered.
Haliburton-Uxbridge is the most terrible suggestion for a riding I've ever seen. It is in fact SO bad, I will personally make a presentation to the commission to let them know.
Toronto North should provide the CPC with a constant seat in Toronto
New Ottawa ridings are flawless IMO, and "perfect".
Kitchener South very strangely shaped, but unavoidable.
Hamilton gets new riding, exactly where it needs one.
Woodbridge, Unionville, Mount Pleasent, all ridings that need a closer look (by me to see what they mean)
Mississauga Centre should be good for the Liberals
Bradford and Georgina, as growing areas, should not be in the same riding.
Splitting Barrie a good idea. Barrie South will likely need to shrink in 2021 due to population growth.
More to come later (as in, maybe a day or a week or a month)
PS. and no, I do not detect any "Gerrymandering" outside of Oshawa.
Request (Gaspe)
-Haute Gaspesie-
Haute-Gaspesie-La Metis-Matane-Matapedia
B: 5749
L: 4984
N: 3020
C: 2947
G: 303
Gaspesie--Iles-De-La-Madeline
N: 9549
B: 8781
C: 4825
L: 3603
G: 744
GASPESIE--LES ILES:
B: 14530 - 32.6%
N: 12569 - 28.2%
L: 8587 - 19.3%
C: 7772 - 17.5%
G: 1047 - 2.4%
TO OTHER RIDING:
Haute-Gaspesie-La Metis-Matane-Matapedia
B: 6531
N: 4351
L: 3425
C: 2066
G: 389
Gaspesie--Iles-De-La-Madeline
N: 2729
B: 2526
L: 1502
C: 1195
G: 231
Rimouski
N: 15191
B: 11532
C: 4585
L: 3200
G: 731
RIMOUSKI
N: 22271 - 37.0%
B: 20589 - 34.2%
L: 8127 - 13.5%
C: 7846 - 13.0%
G: 1351 - 2.2%
Request
Two ridings are finished, the rest I will continue to work on.
--LEVIS--
From Levis-Bellechasse
C: 2281
G: 124
B: 1222
L: 432
N: 2568
From Lotbiniere--Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere
G: 677
N: 16595
B: 6308
C: 14671
L: 2105
TOTAL LEVIS:
N: 19163 - 40.8%
C: 16952 - 36.1%
B: 7530 - 16.0%
L: 2537 - 5.4%
G: 801 - 1.7%
TOT: 46983
--LAC SAINT LOUIS--
From Lac Saint Louis
L: 15039
C: 12442
N: 12317
G: 1903
B: 1130
From Notre-Dame-de-Grace--Lachine
N: 2299
L: 1708
C: 1085
B: 337
G: 270
TOTAL LAC SAINT LOUIS
L: 16747 - 34.5%
N: 14616 - 30.1%
C: 13527 - 27.9%
G: 2173 - 4.5%
B: 1467 - 3.0%
TO DO
-Ville Marie-
Laurier Saint Marie
Westmount Ville Marie
Jeanne-Le Ber
-Haute Gaspesie-
Haute-Gaspesie-La Metis-Matane-Matapedia
Gaspesie--Iles-De-La-Madeline
-GE Cartier-
Ahuntsic
Saint Laurent Cartierville
-Maurice Richard-
Papineau (small)
Bourassa (small)
Ahuntsic
Saint-Leonard
-St Leonard-
Saint-Leonard
Hochelaga
Answering a Request
I was asked in a comment if I can get the transposition for all 78 ridings in Quebec. Sadly, that's a bit too much work for ridings that are temporary (the final boundaries and proposed boundaries are sometimes quite different)
However, I was also asked if I can do the the transposition in Lac St Louis, Maurice Richard, Ville Marie, Haute Gaspesie, St. Leonard, Levis, and GE Cartier. The answer is yes. I will begin work on this ASAP and post once I am done.
However, I was also asked if I can do the the transposition in Lac St Louis, Maurice Richard, Ville Marie, Haute Gaspesie, St. Leonard, Levis, and GE Cartier. The answer is yes. I will begin work on this ASAP and post once I am done.
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