Saturday, September 1, 2012

More thoughts.

My thoughts on this bloc of undecided voters is thus.

They will not stay home.
If they do, my projection is going to be way off, because if they do, the PQ wins a majority. I think, however, that there are enough people genuinely scared of a PQ government that they will be motivated, at minimum, to get off their bum and cast a ballot. The "problem" here is that some undecided voters may be PQ-QS-ON, and thus, this elimination may not work.

They will not split their vote.
I can't see such a large and consistent bloc of undecided voters deciding to split their vote between the parties. Normally, when undecided numbers fluctuate, it is more likely to see a split, but my experience has told me that a more consistent number, like that we've seen in this election, is more likely to have their votes swing towards one party much more than to another.

So will they go PLQ or CAQ?
I don't know. That is the last question that remains to be answered. That, as well as, how much of a swing to the party will there be? Too small, and the PQ wins.

4 comments:

Coupon Cor said...

I agree with your musings, except for one vital piece. I think that it is these undecided who will stay home.
To me, these are the people who are faced with an impossible scenario - vote for the party (PLQ) they have always voted for (because they hoped that somehow, in doing so, Quebec would become the place they wanted) or vote for the CAQ and face the fear of trusting one of 'them' (a sovereignist - proverbial wolf in sheep's clothing).

I think at the end of the day - this group will make up the percentage of the population that did not vote... essentially those who are 'abstaining' because they are too apathetic about their democratic right and too afraid to make a decision (and frankly, for those who are unwilling to stand up and make a decision, you deserve what you get!)

TheNewTeddy said...

Hummm. The problem is I have this sinking feeling you may be right.

Coupon Cor said...

The good news in this is that most of the anglophone undecided live in the west island where the PQ is in third place. So, if they simply dont show up on Tuesday, it will be the CAQ who win.

What I dont understand is if they are so apathetic or tired, why not just leave the province and be done with it? Staying here wishing things would change back to pre-1970 is insane!

TheNewTeddy said...

Real estate agents say they are looking to move. There was a CTV story on this a few days ago.