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In Canada, it is somewhat rare to find a legislature with only two parties represented.
At the moment, four provinces (BC, SK, PE, NB) qualify. In the US however, it is rare for anyone except a Democrat or a Republican to get elected. Independents do win. Joe Lieberman, for example. Technically, he leads his own statewide party that nominates only him, but in reality of course, he is an Independent. I decided to take a quick look to find third party elected politicians in the US.
First, former members. A Green was elected to the state house in Maine and a member of the Constitution Party in Montana. Neither members currently hold seats. A Green was elected in Arkansas, but defected to the Democrats.
There are only two states with current real third party members that have been elected to the legislature. In New York, the state assembly has four parties. Along with the D's and the R's, there is a member of the "Working Families" party. The party is generally moderately left wing. There are also members of New York's "Independence Party", which descended from the 1992 presidential bid of Ross Perot. The party is right wing. One member was elected from this party and another has defected from the Republicans. The member for the WFP is from Long Island and the original member from the IP is from up state.
The only other state with third party members is Vermont. There, a strong "Progressive Party" has won seats for the past number of years. They currently have one State Senator, from Burlington, the state capital. In the state house, there are 5 members from the Progressive Party, from all over the state. Although Bernie Sanders has never returned the affection, the Progressives have been his biggest supporters. Sanders, currently, is a United States Senator from Vermont and officially sits as an Independent. The Progressives could be considered NDP-like in terms of policy.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Friday, January 1, 2010
Thursday, December 31, 2009
My personal thoughts
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So Harper has prorogued Parliament. Is he running away from the opposition? You are damn right he is. I may have voted for him in 2006, but I certainly did not in 2008. He's done many things to make me, 'cross', lets say.
Harper plans to appoint at least 5 new Senators and get some form of Senate Reform though the Senate at least. I don't know if he can pass it though the house, but there are good chances he can, somehow.
While I disagree with many of the things he's done, I do see, from my own numbers, that he is headed towards a Majority. So, what do I think of that?
I think it's just fine.
Why? Is Harper not a threat to Democracy?
Perhaps he is, but chances are he's not. People said the same thing about Chretien (read "The Friendly Dictator") and Mulroney, and Trudeau, and just about any other PM with a Majority. I really don't think Harper is 'evil' at heart, or that he would pass a bill ending Democracy. Come on, that is ridiculous. He will do, as every PM, Liberal or Tory, has done, and use his powers to unfairly block things bad for his polling numbers. He will take advantage of power and use it to boost his own party. This is not shocking news, the Liberals and PC Party are masters at this, even the NDP in BC dabbled in the practice. One reason why many people do find it shocking is Harper's Reform roots. That's gone now, clearly, and what once appeared (in 2003) to be a Reform takeover of the PC Party, has come out (in 2009) to be just the opposite. Harper was never a small r reformer, he's always been a small c conservative, and now he's a big C Conservative too.
I don't consider myself to be either a Conservative or a conservative. I do like to think of myself as a reformer (small r) and a liberal (small l) and a Green (big G). I do, however, know history. I also know that stability is important. Having 4 more years of a Harper minority and the instability it brings will hurt Canada far more than having 4 years of a Harper majority. A Harper Majority puts the country on a singular and clear path, giving him and his men control over the levers for long enough to implement policy, and see it though. Even if it's not policy I agree with, I do think that it should be given a fair shot to succeed or fail on it's own merits. If it fails, any good government would abandon it, and any bad government will be voted out of office. If it's good policy, than I will be surprised.
Regardless, my point is that 4 years with Dictator Harper is not going to destroy Canada, despite the rhetoric, and perhaps its time to just "get it over with" so that we can watch him fail, and return to another decade of competent Liberal governance, with a new leader who can actually inspire people for a change.
~Teddy
Sorry, no extra data today!
So Harper has prorogued Parliament. Is he running away from the opposition? You are damn right he is. I may have voted for him in 2006, but I certainly did not in 2008. He's done many things to make me, 'cross', lets say.
Harper plans to appoint at least 5 new Senators and get some form of Senate Reform though the Senate at least. I don't know if he can pass it though the house, but there are good chances he can, somehow.
While I disagree with many of the things he's done, I do see, from my own numbers, that he is headed towards a Majority. So, what do I think of that?
I think it's just fine.
Why? Is Harper not a threat to Democracy?
Perhaps he is, but chances are he's not. People said the same thing about Chretien (read "The Friendly Dictator") and Mulroney, and Trudeau, and just about any other PM with a Majority. I really don't think Harper is 'evil' at heart, or that he would pass a bill ending Democracy. Come on, that is ridiculous. He will do, as every PM, Liberal or Tory, has done, and use his powers to unfairly block things bad for his polling numbers. He will take advantage of power and use it to boost his own party. This is not shocking news, the Liberals and PC Party are masters at this, even the NDP in BC dabbled in the practice. One reason why many people do find it shocking is Harper's Reform roots. That's gone now, clearly, and what once appeared (in 2003) to be a Reform takeover of the PC Party, has come out (in 2009) to be just the opposite. Harper was never a small r reformer, he's always been a small c conservative, and now he's a big C Conservative too.
I don't consider myself to be either a Conservative or a conservative. I do like to think of myself as a reformer (small r) and a liberal (small l) and a Green (big G). I do, however, know history. I also know that stability is important. Having 4 more years of a Harper minority and the instability it brings will hurt Canada far more than having 4 years of a Harper majority. A Harper Majority puts the country on a singular and clear path, giving him and his men control over the levers for long enough to implement policy, and see it though. Even if it's not policy I agree with, I do think that it should be given a fair shot to succeed or fail on it's own merits. If it fails, any good government would abandon it, and any bad government will be voted out of office. If it's good policy, than I will be surprised.
Regardless, my point is that 4 years with Dictator Harper is not going to destroy Canada, despite the rhetoric, and perhaps its time to just "get it over with" so that we can watch him fail, and return to another decade of competent Liberal governance, with a new leader who can actually inspire people for a change.
~Teddy
Sorry, no extra data today!
Parliament Prorogued.
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Until the start of March.
I declare now that we will try our best to have a real website up and running by the time Parliament resumed. Until then we may see reduced posting levels here. I will, however, over the next few days do a final09/first10 projection using recent polling numbers.
~Teddy
Sorry, no extra data today!
Until the start of March.
I declare now that we will try our best to have a real website up and running by the time Parliament resumed. Until then we may see reduced posting levels here. I will, however, over the next few days do a final09/first10 projection using recent polling numbers.
~Teddy
Sorry, no extra data today!
Monday, December 28, 2009
End of the year
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This will be a shorter post. It is the end of 2009, so where do we stand? The answer is that we are in a very similar place to where we were at the end of 2008. The only real differences are in the Liberal Party.
Dion is gone and Iggy has taken his place. While they shared similar polling numbers, Dion was tested by the electorate while Iggy has not yet been. When the 2008 campaign started, polls had said we could expect a 2006 like result, but Dion's fumbles lead us to something different. Iggy could well do better, or worse. He is the only real change on the political landscape.
The only other changes of note are economic. Harper managed to maintain a lead throughout most of the year despite a severe recession. With a bounce back expected, he could well see his poll numbers rise.
Sorry, no extra data today!
This will be a shorter post. It is the end of 2009, so where do we stand? The answer is that we are in a very similar place to where we were at the end of 2008. The only real differences are in the Liberal Party.
Dion is gone and Iggy has taken his place. While they shared similar polling numbers, Dion was tested by the electorate while Iggy has not yet been. When the 2008 campaign started, polls had said we could expect a 2006 like result, but Dion's fumbles lead us to something different. Iggy could well do better, or worse. He is the only real change on the political landscape.
The only other changes of note are economic. Harper managed to maintain a lead throughout most of the year despite a severe recession. With a bounce back expected, he could well see his poll numbers rise.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Sunday, December 20, 2009
The next election
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The question everyone comes here to find out is what will happen in the next election.
The answer, as far as we can tell, is that Stephen Harper will win a majority.
Over the past year, Canadians have become more comfortable with the idea for a Harper majority, even if the Tories continue to make mistakes (so would the Liberals)
Ignatieff did catch the public's imagination for quite a while, but after he dropped off the radar, the idea of Harper winning a majority now seems almost inevitable.
If Harper is going to win why is he currently not polling at majority levels? The answer is that Canadians are still looking for another answer. People are not paying attention to the polls right now, they are buying x-mas presents for their children. When an election starts and people focus in, they will see how close Harper is (always within 15 seats) they will realize that he will win no matter what, and that they 'might as well just' give him a majority.
Of course, things can change, but at this moment, Harper looks set to win a majority in the coming spring or fall election.
So what does this mean? Well for one thing it is great news for Harper. It is bad news for those who are currently in a good position to be elected as Tory Leader (and lets face it, at this point that list is very short. Prentice, Flaherty, Kenney, and that's about it) but it is good news for the other possibilities who may be in a better position to challenge in 4 years; MacKay, and Day are two possibilities. Bernard Lord comes to mind, even Jean Charest if he can wiggle out of the Premier's office before his party loses to the PQ. With 4 years of good service in cabinet, Bernier, Barid, Van Loan, and Cannon all could make a solid run.
This is likely good news for the Bloc, as Harper would be much easier to skewer than Ignatieff would be, or Harper's replacement should he dare win yet another minority. The NDP also benefits as the country will move further away from how they want it to be, giving them more ammo in the following election. Both parties will also be free to pick a new leader, which they both likely will do in a few years regardless.
For the Liberals this can be a good thing. It gives them an excuse to sit down and take the party apart before putting it back together again. It is bad news for Ignatieff, who will be out, and also for the current "old guard" but great news for people like Justin Trudeau. Trudeau is currently "too young" to be a realistic contender for the leadership in these difficult times, but facing a Harper Majority, there is a good chance the Liberal Party will be willing to 'take a chance on a Trudeau' again and give him a good 2-3 years as opposition leader without the risk of an election.
Lastly, this is good news for Canada as a whole. Minority parliaments, while useful, often serve to only amplify the divisions that exist in this country. Whatever the Tories do while in office, it will be consistent to a single ideology. Rather than sitting and spinning our wheels, we will start moving somewhere. Weather that is a place Canadians want to go, however, is another question for another time.
Sorry, no extra data today!
The question everyone comes here to find out is what will happen in the next election.
The answer, as far as we can tell, is that Stephen Harper will win a majority.
Over the past year, Canadians have become more comfortable with the idea for a Harper majority, even if the Tories continue to make mistakes (so would the Liberals)
Ignatieff did catch the public's imagination for quite a while, but after he dropped off the radar, the idea of Harper winning a majority now seems almost inevitable.
If Harper is going to win why is he currently not polling at majority levels? The answer is that Canadians are still looking for another answer. People are not paying attention to the polls right now, they are buying x-mas presents for their children. When an election starts and people focus in, they will see how close Harper is (always within 15 seats) they will realize that he will win no matter what, and that they 'might as well just' give him a majority.
Of course, things can change, but at this moment, Harper looks set to win a majority in the coming spring or fall election.
So what does this mean? Well for one thing it is great news for Harper. It is bad news for those who are currently in a good position to be elected as Tory Leader (and lets face it, at this point that list is very short. Prentice, Flaherty, Kenney, and that's about it) but it is good news for the other possibilities who may be in a better position to challenge in 4 years; MacKay, and Day are two possibilities. Bernard Lord comes to mind, even Jean Charest if he can wiggle out of the Premier's office before his party loses to the PQ. With 4 years of good service in cabinet, Bernier, Barid, Van Loan, and Cannon all could make a solid run.
This is likely good news for the Bloc, as Harper would be much easier to skewer than Ignatieff would be, or Harper's replacement should he dare win yet another minority. The NDP also benefits as the country will move further away from how they want it to be, giving them more ammo in the following election. Both parties will also be free to pick a new leader, which they both likely will do in a few years regardless.
For the Liberals this can be a good thing. It gives them an excuse to sit down and take the party apart before putting it back together again. It is bad news for Ignatieff, who will be out, and also for the current "old guard" but great news for people like Justin Trudeau. Trudeau is currently "too young" to be a realistic contender for the leadership in these difficult times, but facing a Harper Majority, there is a good chance the Liberal Party will be willing to 'take a chance on a Trudeau' again and give him a good 2-3 years as opposition leader without the risk of an election.
Lastly, this is good news for Canada as a whole. Minority parliaments, while useful, often serve to only amplify the divisions that exist in this country. Whatever the Tories do while in office, it will be consistent to a single ideology. Rather than sitting and spinning our wheels, we will start moving somewhere. Weather that is a place Canadians want to go, however, is another question for another time.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
More updates
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Updates on various items.
Quick update on the Senate, just to note, if Harper pulled the "Mulroney 8 senators thing" he would have a Majority instantly.
In the provinces.
In Nova Scotia, and Manitoba, the NDP government continues to lead the polls.
In Prince Edward Island, the Liberal government continues to lead.
In Saskatchewan and Newfoundland, the Tories continue to lead, though in Saskatchewan they call their Tories the "Saskatchewan Party"
When averaged out, the following provinces are currently horse-races.
BC, between the Liberals and the NDP
Alberta, between the PC Party and the Alliance
Ontario and New Brunswick, between the Liberals and the PC Party
Quebec, between the Liberals and the PQ
Sorry, no extra data today!
Updates on various items.
Quick update on the Senate, just to note, if Harper pulled the "Mulroney 8 senators thing" he would have a Majority instantly.
In the provinces.
In Nova Scotia, and Manitoba, the NDP government continues to lead the polls.
In Prince Edward Island, the Liberal government continues to lead.
In Saskatchewan and Newfoundland, the Tories continue to lead, though in Saskatchewan they call their Tories the "Saskatchewan Party"
When averaged out, the following provinces are currently horse-races.
BC, between the Liberals and the NDP
Alberta, between the PC Party and the Alliance
Ontario and New Brunswick, between the Liberals and the PC Party
Quebec, between the Liberals and the PQ
Sorry, no extra data today!
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Senate Update
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As of this moment, in the Senate we have...
Lib - 50
Con - 46
Oth - 5
Vac - 4
Which means that if Harper were to appoint new Senators, that the Tories would have the same number of Senators as the Liberals. 2011 is still the date for the Tories to gain a majority in the chamber.
The "Other" column includes Independents, and "Progressive Conservatives" who are effective Independents.
Sorry, no extra data today!
As of this moment, in the Senate we have...
Lib - 50
Con - 46
Oth - 5
Vac - 4
Which means that if Harper were to appoint new Senators, that the Tories would have the same number of Senators as the Liberals. 2011 is still the date for the Tories to gain a majority in the chamber.
The "Other" column includes Independents, and "Progressive Conservatives" who are effective Independents.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Alberta
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A quick review on the situation in Alberta. Everyone is buzzing about a new poll showing the Alliance in first place. I ran the numbers though my mini Alberta ElectoMatic, and got the following results:
WAP - 47
ALP - 22
PC - 10
NDP - 4
Now I caution, that this is a single-poll projection, and hence, should be taken with a grain of salt.
However, since October, we've had 4 polls; so lets run them though the matrix to get a much more solid projection.
PC - 39 - 35.5%
WAP - 24 - 30.7%
ALP - 16 - 23.2%
NDP - 4 - 10.5%
So why is the Alliance doing so "bad"? Same reason the PC Party does "bad" in our single-poll projection. Their vote is too spread out. The single poll does go out of it's way to note the Alliance is leading in all rural areas plus the cities. What this will translate to on the ground is many strong second places. In order to win, the party needs to solidify its vote, or, just plain get more votes.
You may also notice that comments are now moderated. This is due to a recent spam attack.
Sorry, no extra data today!
A quick review on the situation in Alberta. Everyone is buzzing about a new poll showing the Alliance in first place. I ran the numbers though my mini Alberta ElectoMatic, and got the following results:
WAP - 47
ALP - 22
PC - 10
NDP - 4
Now I caution, that this is a single-poll projection, and hence, should be taken with a grain of salt.
However, since October, we've had 4 polls; so lets run them though the matrix to get a much more solid projection.
PC - 39 - 35.5%
WAP - 24 - 30.7%
ALP - 16 - 23.2%
NDP - 4 - 10.5%
So why is the Alliance doing so "bad"? Same reason the PC Party does "bad" in our single-poll projection. Their vote is too spread out. The single poll does go out of it's way to note the Alliance is leading in all rural areas plus the cities. What this will translate to on the ground is many strong second places. In order to win, the party needs to solidify its vote, or, just plain get more votes.
You may also notice that comments are now moderated. This is due to a recent spam attack.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Friday, December 11, 2009
Moving to a website, eventually
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I have some good news and some bad news.
I've decided to reveal the "big news" - that we will be moving niXtuff to a real .com website. The bad news is that GoDaddy, PayPal, and my bank do not seem to get along well. I do not have a credit card and due to that it may be impossible for me to get a website. I am working on this, however, and will let you all know more when I know more.
Sorry, no extra data today!
I have some good news and some bad news.
I've decided to reveal the "big news" - that we will be moving niXtuff to a real .com website. The bad news is that GoDaddy, PayPal, and my bank do not seem to get along well. I do not have a credit card and due to that it may be impossible for me to get a website. I am working on this, however, and will let you all know more when I know more.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Please, call me Teddy
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Along with the news from yesterday, a request. While my real name is Nick J Boragina, online, people know me as "Teddy". Hence, please refer to me as such.
Also, on the update front, with few polls showing little change, our projection remains unchanged.
The Tories remain between 140-150
The Liberals remain between 80-90
The Bloc remains between 45-50
and the NDP remains between 30-35
A province-by-province update will come out later this week.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Along with the news from yesterday, a request. While my real name is Nick J Boragina, online, people know me as "Teddy". Hence, please refer to me as such.
Also, on the update front, with few polls showing little change, our projection remains unchanged.
The Tories remain between 140-150
The Liberals remain between 80-90
The Bloc remains between 45-50
and the NDP remains between 30-35
A province-by-province update will come out later this week.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Huge news!
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Sometime over the new few weeks I will have a huge announcement to make with regards to niXtuff. I hope to be able to do so tomorrow, but may not have everything ready by then.
I cannot wait to let everyone in on what's coming!
Sorry, no extra data today!
Sometime over the new few weeks I will have a huge announcement to make with regards to niXtuff. I hope to be able to do so tomorrow, but may not have everything ready by then.
I cannot wait to let everyone in on what's coming!
Sorry, no extra data today!
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Update
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Quick update before we get back to full speed.
CPC - 144
Lib - 89
BQ - 46
NDP - 29
No commentary.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Quick update before we get back to full speed.
CPC - 144
Lib - 89
BQ - 46
NDP - 29
No commentary.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Advertisments
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Good news and bad news. The good news is that I will be ramping up the level of posts, the bad news (to some) is that I will be putting a limited number of advertisements on the blog. Speaking of which does anyone know how to make Project Wonderful ads work with blogspot?
Sorry, no extra data today!
Good news and bad news. The good news is that I will be ramping up the level of posts, the bad news (to some) is that I will be putting a limited number of advertisements on the blog. Speaking of which does anyone know how to make Project Wonderful ads work with blogspot?
Sorry, no extra data today!
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Down and Up
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With the threat of an election before the new year being at an all-time low, I am announcing that niXtuff will be going on a roller-coaster ride. First, we will be going down. Activity will slow; but worry not, this is not the end. I will continue to update projections when possible, but will not focus on the visible.
What I will be doing is behind the scenes work. I will refine the ElectoMatic, and likely, release it to the public after the next election (If it works as well as I think it will, everyone will want a copy)
I am also looking to moving to a real website, and not a free blogger site. I will, of course, keep you updated.
We will have our grand re-opening on January 1st 2010.
To entertain you until then, and beyond, I strongly recommend reading this graphic novel / web comic
Sorry, no extra data today!
With the threat of an election before the new year being at an all-time low, I am announcing that niXtuff will be going on a roller-coaster ride. First, we will be going down. Activity will slow; but worry not, this is not the end. I will continue to update projections when possible, but will not focus on the visible.
What I will be doing is behind the scenes work. I will refine the ElectoMatic, and likely, release it to the public after the next election (If it works as well as I think it will, everyone will want a copy)
I am also looking to moving to a real website, and not a free blogger site. I will, of course, keep you updated.
We will have our grand re-opening on January 1st 2010.
To entertain you until then, and beyond, I strongly recommend reading this graphic novel / web comic
Sorry, no extra data today!
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Toronto - Class 2 Transportation Situation
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I'm declaring a Class 2 Transportation Situation in Toronto.
The subway is down from Bloor to Eglinton, and was down during Rush hour.
More on our classes.
Class 1 - Total disruption of a Major route (Yonge Subway, 401, Lakeshore West) for both peak transportation periods. Example: When the city blew up.
Class 2 - Total disruption of a Major route during at least one peak period. Example: The unfortunate accident near Lawrence Station that took a life last year.
Class 3 - Partial disruption of a Major route or Total disruption of a Busy route (IE Eglinton West bus, Allen expressway, Sroufville GO line) during a peak period, or a class 2 incident outside of peak.
Class 4 - Partial disruption of a busy route, or total disruption of a minor route (IE Sheppard East, in Scarborough) during a peak period, or a class 3 incident outside of peak.
Class 5 - All other transportation emergencies.
Sorry, no extra data today!
I'm declaring a Class 2 Transportation Situation in Toronto.
The subway is down from Bloor to Eglinton, and was down during Rush hour.
More on our classes.
Class 1 - Total disruption of a Major route (Yonge Subway, 401, Lakeshore West) for both peak transportation periods. Example: When the city blew up.
Class 2 - Total disruption of a Major route during at least one peak period. Example: The unfortunate accident near Lawrence Station that took a life last year.
Class 3 - Partial disruption of a Major route or Total disruption of a Busy route (IE Eglinton West bus, Allen expressway, Sroufville GO line) during a peak period, or a class 2 incident outside of peak.
Class 4 - Partial disruption of a busy route, or total disruption of a minor route (IE Sheppard East, in Scarborough) during a peak period, or a class 3 incident outside of peak.
Class 5 - All other transportation emergencies.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Sorry
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Sorry for the lack of updates recently. Life.
In general, polls have not changed much, meaning our projection will not change much.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Sorry for the lack of updates recently. Life.
In general, polls have not changed much, meaning our projection will not change much.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Web Comic
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A personal post.
I have a webcomic now apparently... I'm more surprised than you! http://nixtuffcomix.webs.com/
Sorry, no extra data today!
A personal post.
I have a webcomic now apparently... I'm more surprised than you! http://nixtuffcomix.webs.com/
Sorry, no extra data today!
Thursday, November 12, 2009
ADQ or NAUDQ
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More news about the ADQ. The ADQ, who's name in english translates, roughly, to the Democratic Action Party, has managed to be un democratic without taking any actions at all. The Non-Action Un-Democratic party of Quebec, last we saw, was on the table in the OR waiting to be shocked by the docs. Well it got it's shock, and the news it, its not going to make it.
Newly Minted ADQ leader Gilles Taillon has decided to call it quits. The longtime ADQ leader has been embroiled in controversy since he took over the helm. First, his margin of victory over his main rival was two votes, one of which was cast by a Quebec satire TV show. His main rival then came up with some BS excuse to quit the caucus and did so, bringing a pal along.
The long and the short of it is that the ADQ has always been tied to the right. Stockwell Day, while leader of the Canadian Alliance, sent out feelers to the party, and even this very minor back room lip service helped him to beat out the PC Party by 2 points in the province. Harper at first kept his distance - and won 0 seats in the province - then decided to work with the ADQ, winning nearly a dozen seats, and polling, at times, neck and neck with the Bloc. The ADQ in return for this cozy arrangement went from 4 to 41 MNAs and formed the official opposition. Taillon, it appears, did not like this buddy-buddy deal, and wanted to distance the ADQ from the federal Tories. This, it seems, was his undoing.
What happens now is actually pretty clear. Gerard Deltell will, in a short amount of time, be crowned ADQ leader. Caire and Picard will rejoin the caucus, and all will be right again. Or perhaps not.
The ADQ is going to take a hit for all of this. A big hit. I for one expect the party will have trouble finding 100 candidates for Quebec's 125 ridings. The ADQ will remain a third option for Francophones outside of Montreal, but will be just that, the third option. QS will remain the alternative for Montrealers, and Vert/Greens will remain the alternative for anglophones province wide.
The only good news is that Deltell's riding is the most secure riding for the ADQ in the province. Meaning that when he faces the next election, he has a 50-50 chance of getting a single ADQer back into the assembly. Perhaps then, the ADQ can start the rebuilding process.
Sorry, no extra data today!
More news about the ADQ. The ADQ, who's name in english translates, roughly, to the Democratic Action Party, has managed to be un democratic without taking any actions at all. The Non-Action Un-Democratic party of Quebec, last we saw, was on the table in the OR waiting to be shocked by the docs. Well it got it's shock, and the news it, its not going to make it.
Newly Minted ADQ leader Gilles Taillon has decided to call it quits. The longtime ADQ leader has been embroiled in controversy since he took over the helm. First, his margin of victory over his main rival was two votes, one of which was cast by a Quebec satire TV show. His main rival then came up with some BS excuse to quit the caucus and did so, bringing a pal along.
The long and the short of it is that the ADQ has always been tied to the right. Stockwell Day, while leader of the Canadian Alliance, sent out feelers to the party, and even this very minor back room lip service helped him to beat out the PC Party by 2 points in the province. Harper at first kept his distance - and won 0 seats in the province - then decided to work with the ADQ, winning nearly a dozen seats, and polling, at times, neck and neck with the Bloc. The ADQ in return for this cozy arrangement went from 4 to 41 MNAs and formed the official opposition. Taillon, it appears, did not like this buddy-buddy deal, and wanted to distance the ADQ from the federal Tories. This, it seems, was his undoing.
What happens now is actually pretty clear. Gerard Deltell will, in a short amount of time, be crowned ADQ leader. Caire and Picard will rejoin the caucus, and all will be right again. Or perhaps not.
The ADQ is going to take a hit for all of this. A big hit. I for one expect the party will have trouble finding 100 candidates for Quebec's 125 ridings. The ADQ will remain a third option for Francophones outside of Montreal, but will be just that, the third option. QS will remain the alternative for Montrealers, and Vert/Greens will remain the alternative for anglophones province wide.
The only good news is that Deltell's riding is the most secure riding for the ADQ in the province. Meaning that when he faces the next election, he has a 50-50 chance of getting a single ADQer back into the assembly. Perhaps then, the ADQ can start the rebuilding process.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Monday, November 9, 2009
By-Elections
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In Cumberland in NS, the Tories have won with about 45% over the NDP at 25%. This is what the ElectoMatic was suggesting.
In Hoch. the Bloc won with the NDP in second, narrowly ahead of the Liberals; again in line with the ElectoMatic.
In Montm. the Tories won, something that the ElectoMatic did not forsee at all, though as noted in my earlier projection there is a strong right-wing base in the riding.
In New West. in BC, the NDP is cruising towards a victory of a larger margin than projected by the ElectoMatic.
Sorry, no extra data today!
In Cumberland in NS, the Tories have won with about 45% over the NDP at 25%. This is what the ElectoMatic was suggesting.
In Hoch. the Bloc won with the NDP in second, narrowly ahead of the Liberals; again in line with the ElectoMatic.
In Montm. the Tories won, something that the ElectoMatic did not forsee at all, though as noted in my earlier projection there is a strong right-wing base in the riding.
In New West. in BC, the NDP is cruising towards a victory of a larger margin than projected by the ElectoMatic.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Alberta Projection
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I finally ran the numbers though the wringer. According to the most recent poll, I have the following results:
PC - 52
WAP - 19
Lib - 9
NDP - 3
Why would the PC Party retain a majority? Because the PC votes and the Alliance vote are very similar. There are dozens of ridings the PC Party is winning here by 5%-10% over the Alliance, meaning much of that vote is being wasted. More to come.
Sorry, no extra data today!
I finally ran the numbers though the wringer. According to the most recent poll, I have the following results:
PC - 52
WAP - 19
Lib - 9
NDP - 3
Why would the PC Party retain a majority? Because the PC votes and the Alliance vote are very similar. There are dozens of ridings the PC Party is winning here by 5%-10% over the Alliance, meaning much of that vote is being wasted. More to come.
Sorry, no extra data today!
More on Transit
<- Click here to see the full post
This post contains information about the changes due to the busway, and information on accessibility within the TTCs various routes.
With the new accessible routes, more and more of the TTC network is becoming accessible. It is become so widespread that it is easier to list the non-accessible routes than it is to do the opposite. So which routes are non-accessible? Other than the three seeing changes on November 22nd, we have...
All the streetcar routes.
Express routes 142 and 141. Night routes 312 St. Clair, and 352 Lawrence West. As well as the following daytime routes:
6 Bay
52 Lawrence West
59 Maple Leaf
171 Mount Dennis
77 Sweansea
90 Vaughan
71 Runnymeade
117 Alness
160 Bathurst North
33 Forrest Hill
196 York University Rocket
Of these...
171 is a public bus route, but it's primary purpose is to be an 'employee shuttle' getting TTC workers to and from the Mount Dennis bus garage.
160 Bathurst North mirrors two bus routes that are accessible. 196 Rocket is a short cut of a route that is accessible. 77 and 71 bus routes interline with one another, so if one is to be made accessible, the other would have to be as well. 117 goes deep into an industrial area, but the 105 bus, which is accessible, mirrors it on the main drag.
This leaves us with the following.
6 Bay.
This route runs downtown, and is one of the few buses to do so. Most other downtown routes are rail based, either streetcar, subway, or GO Train. 6 Bay is the weak link in the system. Streetcars are not accessible, and many downtown stations are not either. Bay is not far from Yonge, and there is no Yonge bus for most of the day. Making this route accessible would be a very important step towards making the city accessible. The problem is that the bus garage that this bus route operates out of is the newest of the garages, and hence, had last pick of equipment at the time of the move. Hopefully some of the newly ordered accessible buses will go to that garage, and then to this route.
52 Lawrence West.
This is one of the more 'main' routes of the TTC network. While it's sister route, 58 Malton, may be accessible, the fact that this route is not does leave gaps in the network. This route certainly should be a priority.
77/71 Runnymeade. 33 Forrest Hill. 90 Vaughan. 59 Maple Leaf.
All these routes are physically close to accessible routes, but are not themselves. All of them run through residential areas, and connect those areas to areas for shopping or working. They may find that they are the last to be converted.
Also in this recent set of service changes are changes due to the busway to York University opening. The 196 Rocket and VIVA Orange will change, of course, to use this new busway. What may be of interest is that other routes will be changing as well. In order to get the most out of the new busway, a new exit/entrance to Downsview station has been built that empties right on to Allen Road. Due to this there are a few changes. The 105 Dufferin North will use this new entrance, and therefore, not run along Wilson Heights Blvd at all. 117 Alness will also use this new entrance and not Wilson Heights. The biggest change is going to occur to the 104 Faywood route. This route will now head from Wilson to Finch, then down Dufferin to Wilson Heights, and finally down to Downsview. It will connect the two stations but go out of it's way to do so. This requires the removal of service on Overbrook (at least it will once the gaping hole in Finch is fixed) It also means reduced service levels on Wilson Heights. The fact that it connects two subway stations, however, can be a bonus. I personally recommend using it to transit between the two in the event of subway disruptions (as the replacement shuttles would likely be full to the brim of people who do not read this blog!)
This post contains information about the changes due to the busway, and information on accessibility within the TTCs various routes.
With the new accessible routes, more and more of the TTC network is becoming accessible. It is become so widespread that it is easier to list the non-accessible routes than it is to do the opposite. So which routes are non-accessible? Other than the three seeing changes on November 22nd, we have...
All the streetcar routes.
Express routes 142 and 141. Night routes 312 St. Clair, and 352 Lawrence West. As well as the following daytime routes:
6 Bay
52 Lawrence West
59 Maple Leaf
171 Mount Dennis
77 Sweansea
90 Vaughan
71 Runnymeade
117 Alness
160 Bathurst North
33 Forrest Hill
196 York University Rocket
Of these...
171 is a public bus route, but it's primary purpose is to be an 'employee shuttle' getting TTC workers to and from the Mount Dennis bus garage.
160 Bathurst North mirrors two bus routes that are accessible. 196 Rocket is a short cut of a route that is accessible. 77 and 71 bus routes interline with one another, so if one is to be made accessible, the other would have to be as well. 117 goes deep into an industrial area, but the 105 bus, which is accessible, mirrors it on the main drag.
This leaves us with the following.
6 Bay.
This route runs downtown, and is one of the few buses to do so. Most other downtown routes are rail based, either streetcar, subway, or GO Train. 6 Bay is the weak link in the system. Streetcars are not accessible, and many downtown stations are not either. Bay is not far from Yonge, and there is no Yonge bus for most of the day. Making this route accessible would be a very important step towards making the city accessible. The problem is that the bus garage that this bus route operates out of is the newest of the garages, and hence, had last pick of equipment at the time of the move. Hopefully some of the newly ordered accessible buses will go to that garage, and then to this route.
52 Lawrence West.
This is one of the more 'main' routes of the TTC network. While it's sister route, 58 Malton, may be accessible, the fact that this route is not does leave gaps in the network. This route certainly should be a priority.
77/71 Runnymeade. 33 Forrest Hill. 90 Vaughan. 59 Maple Leaf.
All these routes are physically close to accessible routes, but are not themselves. All of them run through residential areas, and connect those areas to areas for shopping or working. They may find that they are the last to be converted.
Also in this recent set of service changes are changes due to the busway to York University opening. The 196 Rocket and VIVA Orange will change, of course, to use this new busway. What may be of interest is that other routes will be changing as well. In order to get the most out of the new busway, a new exit/entrance to Downsview station has been built that empties right on to Allen Road. Due to this there are a few changes. The 105 Dufferin North will use this new entrance, and therefore, not run along Wilson Heights Blvd at all. 117 Alness will also use this new entrance and not Wilson Heights. The biggest change is going to occur to the 104 Faywood route. This route will now head from Wilson to Finch, then down Dufferin to Wilson Heights, and finally down to Downsview. It will connect the two stations but go out of it's way to do so. This requires the removal of service on Overbrook (at least it will once the gaping hole in Finch is fixed) It also means reduced service levels on Wilson Heights. The fact that it connects two subway stations, however, can be a bonus. I personally recommend using it to transit between the two in the event of subway disruptions (as the replacement shuttles would likely be full to the brim of people who do not read this blog!)
Blog Announcement: Public Transit
<- Click here to see the full post
I've decided to make a change to this blog.
One blog I read often is Steve Munro .ca Over there Steve talks about Transit, but every once in a while does a review of plays and movies. I am not interested in either of those two, but rather read his blog due to this focus on Transit. He is free to post about what he wants, as it's his blog.
Well, this is my blog, and I've decided to put the new "Read More" option to good use. I will, from time to time, make posts regarding Public Transit in Toronto and elsewhere. I will, however, hide them 'below the fold' so that those who do not wish to read them will not have to. To begin, our first story, below the fold.
The TTC in what has become an unusual move, has put out it's service changes early. Also early is the Official Service Summary, a technical document explaining the workings of each route in numbers. This document is useful for anyone who wants to know how "frequent" that "frequent service" bus really is. For the record, a "headway" is the time between when the front bumper of one vehicle passes a point, and the front bumper of the next vehicle passes the same point. Due to red lights and traffic it's idealized, of course, but it is a good guidepost to go by.
There are not many changes to look at. In November we get some bike racks, and a few diversions ending. The Bathurst streetcar gets two new trips, southbound, on sunday, in the morning. The only route with a 'true' improvement is my home bus route, 106 York University, which goes back to its last-winter headway of 8 minutes and 15 seconds in the morning peak. The afternoon peak also will see an improvement. In December, the St. Clair streetcar will run from Yonge St to Lansdowne, leaving a much smaller Lansdowne to Keele area for shuttle buses to cover.
Beyond this, we gain some new accessible routes. 107 Keele North, 10 Van Horne, and 89 Weston will now all run accessible low floor buses (or high floor buses with lifts) at all times of the day. Remember, this starts November 22nd.
The last change is due to the busway to York University. A closer examination of the busway and accessible services is in the next post.
I've decided to make a change to this blog.
One blog I read often is Steve Munro .ca Over there Steve talks about Transit, but every once in a while does a review of plays and movies. I am not interested in either of those two, but rather read his blog due to this focus on Transit. He is free to post about what he wants, as it's his blog.
Well, this is my blog, and I've decided to put the new "Read More" option to good use. I will, from time to time, make posts regarding Public Transit in Toronto and elsewhere. I will, however, hide them 'below the fold' so that those who do not wish to read them will not have to. To begin, our first story, below the fold.
The TTC in what has become an unusual move, has put out it's service changes early. Also early is the Official Service Summary, a technical document explaining the workings of each route in numbers. This document is useful for anyone who wants to know how "frequent" that "frequent service" bus really is. For the record, a "headway" is the time between when the front bumper of one vehicle passes a point, and the front bumper of the next vehicle passes the same point. Due to red lights and traffic it's idealized, of course, but it is a good guidepost to go by.
There are not many changes to look at. In November we get some bike racks, and a few diversions ending. The Bathurst streetcar gets two new trips, southbound, on sunday, in the morning. The only route with a 'true' improvement is my home bus route, 106 York University, which goes back to its last-winter headway of 8 minutes and 15 seconds in the morning peak. The afternoon peak also will see an improvement. In December, the St. Clair streetcar will run from Yonge St to Lansdowne, leaving a much smaller Lansdowne to Keele area for shuttle buses to cover.
Beyond this, we gain some new accessible routes. 107 Keele North, 10 Van Horne, and 89 Weston will now all run accessible low floor buses (or high floor buses with lifts) at all times of the day. Remember, this starts November 22nd.
The last change is due to the busway to York University. A closer examination of the busway and accessible services is in the next post.
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Stelmach sticking around
-
Ed Stelmach has won over 77% in his leadership review, and will stick around as Premier of Alberta. This itself might not be news, but what results from this may well be. If you remember, there were roomers of possible defectors sitting in the PC Caucus that were going to switch to the WAP. With Stelmach staying, and no change visible on the horizon, if anyone is going to switch, now is the time to do it. As we mentioned before on this blog, we expect the real number to be closer to 2 and not the 10 that has been speculated. We also project that if this is to happen, it will happen on Monday (after the defectors take Sunday to think). If Tuesday morning comes and there are no defectors, there may well never be.
The more interesting possibility is what I call a 'passive defection'. That a Tory in a rural riding (one the WAP could well win on it's own) would resign his seat. This would give Smith (WAP Leader) a place to run and win.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Ed Stelmach has won over 77% in his leadership review, and will stick around as Premier of Alberta. This itself might not be news, but what results from this may well be. If you remember, there were roomers of possible defectors sitting in the PC Caucus that were going to switch to the WAP. With Stelmach staying, and no change visible on the horizon, if anyone is going to switch, now is the time to do it. As we mentioned before on this blog, we expect the real number to be closer to 2 and not the 10 that has been speculated. We also project that if this is to happen, it will happen on Monday (after the defectors take Sunday to think). If Tuesday morning comes and there are no defectors, there may well never be.
The more interesting possibility is what I call a 'passive defection'. That a Tory in a rural riding (one the WAP could well win on it's own) would resign his seat. This would give Smith (WAP Leader) a place to run and win.
Sorry, no extra data today!
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